To be disgusted at the talks between Russia and the US

[SunnyDayInFeb]

So Russia and the US are meeting in Saudia Arabia to carve up Ukraine.

And Ukraine, whose people have been fighting and dying since their country was invaded, haven't even been invited to the table.

It's like we are back in the 19th century with the European colonial powers drawing lines on a map to divide Africa between them.

This thread is covering a lot of perspectives, full of wondrous theories and is a wayward history lesson.

The latest developments are purely because Trump feels it's wrong that wealthy european countries continue to rely on his country to pay for their security, while simultaneously looking down their noses at the USA and actively undermining Trump personally whenever they can.

He his massively stirring the pot; his aim is to step back and force Europe to step up to their defence responsibilities.

Perhaps posters could declare whether they agree with his position on that at the same time as whatever else they want to pitch in.

I suppose we need to define 'influential'.

In NATO, I'd suggest Türkiye is the most influential re:Russia. They are more aligned politically. Influence doesn't always equate to military budget, and it does mean a quite tiny sphere of countries to choose from if that's your yardstick.

@Simplegazette Obama said the same thing back in 2016
How much patience do you expect the USA to have?

@Simplegazette it has been concerning to see anti US rhetoric increase as they paid. US voters will say you do it then.

I think more simply put, this is a classic case of alliance reversal. That has happened throughout history and never bodes well as it tends to spawn chaos.
Trump seems to play a game of geo-political Darwinism: survival of the fittest on a global scale. Forgive me for being concerned that we're not quite playing in that league anymore. I'm also concerned that old Europe isn't prepared to band together quickly enough - and I think Trump knows that full well. I've never thought the man was stupid, we underestimate his cunning at our own peril.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trump%E2%80%93Ukraine_scandal

Trump–Ukraine scandal

On my earlier point regarding elections: Ukraine is still at war. I'm convinced that the logistical issues with organising fair elections free from external meddling would be too difficult to overcome. By all means, there should be elections as soon as the situation settles but now? They would be wide open to abuses. It's just about being pragmatic.

Thank you. I see it was military aid rather than weapons sales that Trump blocked.

I think his hatred of Zelensky goes back to this incident.

Also one thing that no one talks about is that it's horrible to be Russian these days. I'm not Russian, but I used to work with Russian clients and made good friends there. People are not free. It's a horrible system. Fear reigns right now. Does anyone want that for their friends and family? Would anyone want to let their sons get butchered on the altar of an autocrat's ego? I know I wouldn't. It's important to stand up to that bully - and other bullies in the world - for the sake of the families that have to live there.
I don't wish the US to go down that road or any European country to go down that road. Anyone who excuses what is going on right now is nothing short of a collaborator. It's one thing being stuck under a dictatorship and having no choice in the matter and quite another to enable its rise through cowardice and complacency from the comfort of a warm home in a peaceful country!

@StandFirm of course, I'll always post it's all the young people fighting in this that concerns me. Whether they are forced by Putin or not.

But what are you suggesting? How far are you willing to take your support? Is it money, do you have enough without US, or more? Troops etc

Around the start of the conflict it was reported that the Americans considered the UK forces “barely second rate”
sanctions on Russia went through despite the protest of German industry and look at their economy now, Volkswagen? And whoever blew up Nordstreem isn’t too bothered about German opinions
Italy withdrew from belt and road projects under US pressure.

hardly big hitters are we

My family lost everything in WWII because they resisted. I am proud of that legacy. On a personal level, I can't tell you right now what that means exactly because I sincerely hope it won't get that bad. But at some point you got to take a stand or you don't deserve having free will at all, and without that what sort of a human are you? And yes, I also have a son of 'fighting age'.
Politically, in the first instance, I think it does mean building up defence - we're too vulnerable. That will mean more tax, so be it. You can never avoid conflict, history shows that conflict always comes to you. Passivity doesn't work. So, I think the UK needs to focus on rebuilding and strengthening security/military ties with the EU. We are a European nation and like it or not our geographical fate has always been linked to that.

It is an interesting link to Brexit in that the bots were pro Trump and Russia who were freaking Brexiteers out about an EU army. This is what happens when we opt out and have to pick sides because we've lost international clout- we have to side with the richest powerhouses now. Starmer can see this is unfair but I'm not sure the reality will go his way post Brexit.

Yeah, I left out the B word on purpose because I think the stakes are so much bigger.

We are about as far from world peace right now as we've ever been. I think we are heading towards a world war, where the world's megalomaniacs fight it out to put their flag on the pile of rubble that remains. These people will think nothing of spilling the blood of ordinary men women and children, as it's already happening. Not sure who the UK's friends are anymore. USA sees UK as a tiny backwater indebted to them, and we've upset most of Europe by Brexit and that pathetic display of 'patriotism'. We are utterly alone now in this aren't we!

And yes, I also have a son of 'fighting age'.

Would he agree with your take do you think?

I can't agree but we'll have different views.

By (not) influential I meant within NATO but I agree that Turkey has some influence with Russia based on their proven ability to cooperate and refusal to apply sanctions

If it wasn't for putin threatening to nuke everyone we could have gone in ages ago when this kicked off that's the first worry everyone had, is he going to nuke anyone.
There was tons of media about his gymnast gf and why would he risk retaliation nukes he has a family he's mad but he wouldn't want to get them killed etc.

Nukes are pretty serious are they not?
It's easy to see why this has been a terrible situation and we've all been caught up trying to support Ukraine

Remember one of his generals tried to rebel against him and they immediately snatched his mum and forced him to stop.
It's terrible for Russia and Ukraine and everyone else obviously in varying degrees before anyone jumps on me

Well I do speak to my son :) and I'm a softie compared to him.

@StandFirm you've asked him if he would fight and it was a yes?

https://bsky.app/profile/thestudyofwar.bsky.social/post/3liis5kpw622d

Western intelligence assessments suggest that Putin has not changed his theory of victory in Ukraine and still believes that Russia's military superiority is such that Russia can outlast the West and Ukraine on the battlefield.

The six official sources told NBC that Putin still thinks that he can "wait out" Ukraine and Europe to eventually control all of Ukraine. A Western intelligence official noted that Putin "thinks he is winning" and does not feel pressure to stop hostilities due to Russian battlefield losses.

Putin claimed in June '24 that RU forces aim to "squeeze" Ukrainian forces out "of those territories that should be under Russian control" and that RU did not need to conduct another partial involuntary reserve call up b/c RU is not trying to achieve its military objectives in Ukraine rapidly.

Putin's theory of victory assumes that the Russian military can sustain slow, creeping advances on the battlefield longer than Ukrainian forces can defend and longer than the West is willing to support Ukraine.

More here
https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-18-2025

I agree and you are rightly scared. I'm not saying I'm not. I'm definitely scared. But we have to face him or he will destroy us anyway. And we also have to show Trump we won't be bullied because these guys are pressuring us in a pincer move.
But yes, this isn't looking great I admit.

@Namechangey23

The cold reality is that Russia has the strongest military in Europe with the UK second and then Turkey.
This is slightly different compared to which stats you look at but the UK is way above most eu nations.
Macron has just scrambled together a 10 years too late emergency meeting re military power and starmer was there, many eu heads were not.

I'm not seeing the correlation with everyone hating us for brexit here?

Trump is also under a self-imposed domestic pressure to deliver promises, the average American is not interested in Ukraine or the cost of it, and Trump was elected on a cash cutting and free speech platform.

He's come out of blocks cutting expenditure and was really pissed off with Biden for sending another $500m to Ukraine just before he left office, so there's little hope of much more money coming from them.

Europe is going the other way on free speech so he's not going to be too fussed about dropping them in it either.

Any payment by Ukraine in the way of minerals is just a normal method to pay for assistance from here on in - It seems Zelensky recognises this as I recall he floated the idea in the first place.

Invading someone's country should not end up up with it being ''divided fairly''

What if Putin decides to annex Poland? Germany? Italy? France?
Do we just roll over then?