General Election Polling - completely off

[Rusty101]

Just been looking at the polling for mine and 2 neighbouring seats and I really do think it is way off the mark. I know the demographic pretty well and the prediction of Labour wiping out these conservative seats doesn’t really seem likely. It’s the shy Tory syndrome where people don’t want to admit that they will be voting for them. Anyone else feel the same when looking at the polling in their area?

www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/newseatlookup.html

Electoral Calculus is garbage.

YANBU at all. You would think given what happened in the 1992 and 2015 general elections and polling before the Brexit referendum, which was also proven to be rubbish, that more people would distrust opinion poll predictions.

i think the number of seats being predicted for Labour could well be hugely overestimated; that we may end up with a hung Parliament situation where Labour is the largest party or they end up with a tiny working majority. Both situations have happened before.

The so-called “Shy Tory” factor has been attributed to causing the significant variance between the opinion poll predictions and the actual results in the 1992 and 2015 elections. In my eyes this is a case of it’s happened before, it’ll happen again.

You won’t have to wait long to find out.

To an extent I agree. I think they’ve underestimated the effect of one of the independent candidates here and that makes it more marginal. But against that the bookies are rarely wildly out and they have Labour on 1/100 and any other party on 33/1.
So a red dawn on Friday I’d say.

I completely agree. I’m in a historically Tory area which is predicted a huge swing to LD. Whilst I think it probably will go LD I cannot see how it’s as big as polls suggest so therefore agree lots are just not saying they will vote conservative.

I think the worry over a labour supermajority is also landing. Many people I know are more worried about what Labour are NOT saying than what they are saying, and are less likely to vote for them as a result.

Won't at least some of those swing voters be dead this time round and a few younger ones old enough to vote though? You know, a bit like the B word referendum in 2016 where nostalgia won over common sense.

Personally I don't trust any of them but the nastiest of them all are the current lot and the most untrustworthy of the lot are the Vacillating Yellow Turncoats. Though at least we've been spared the spectacle of the Rose garden bros display this time

The Tories are the only ones that have been going on about a 'supermajority' which is an Americanism anyway. It's pathetic really - a large majority only matters if it negatively affects the Tories. They wouldn't be complaining if they were on course for a large majority.

Tale as old as time, or at least as old as political opinion polls. If your constituency voted Tory in 1997 it probably will do again, barring massive demographic changes in the intervening years.

Good motivation for Labour voters to make sure they take the time to vote.

Due to boundary changes my historically red area is in danger of going blue. There has been significant campaigning and doorstep visits for the first time ever.

We are in a marginal seat and haven’t had a single door knock.

Many, many more people are reportedly going to vote tactically this time, to remove Tory MPs - reportedly huge percentages than was the norm previously. The tactical voting website Carol Vorderman is involved with has had over 2 million hits as of yesterday, and there are several other tactical voting sites available. I think this will have a much bigger effect than in previous GEs.

I agree.
I haven’t taken part in any ‘polls’ and if asked I’m not sure I would respond either.
People, like politicians, lie.
More people should vote and they should look at what is happening around them, facts not fiction, to base their vote on.

A supermajority isn't a thing in UK politics. A majority is a majority whether it's 20 seats or 200. I hope the Tories number of seats post-election is in directly inverse proportion to the number of massive lies they've told. What a disgusting bunch of reptiles they are. They deserve nothing more than a total wipeout.

I'm a mathematician and I'm very sceptical of any model where the underlying assumptions may not hold, or of accepting model results that are close to an untested boundary. I know next to nothing about polling but I suspect we're in that territory here, and wouldn't want to be trying to predict the final number of seats with any accuracy.

However, that's about the size of the Labour majority and the number of seats going to the other parties. I don't see anything other than a Labour government with a sizeable majority.

Electoral Calculus are predicting a big swing to liberal democrats in my
constituency despite boundary changes merging parts of two traditionally conservative constituencies together. I can believe that the seat may change but not by the majority predicted. It will be interested to see what Friday morning brings.

Actually I think it does matter when you don’t know what they’ll do,

the larger the majority the more likely they are to be bold with potentially unpopular policies.

I’m not voting conservative but I do fear we are approaching another “but I didn’t vote for that” era… aka Brexit… simply because Labour have purposefully not committed to anything.

I think the worry over a labour supermajority is also landing.

Desperate tactics indeed. I seem to remember the Tories celebrating Johnson’s landslide win in 2019 rather than warning the country about the perils of a government with a significant majority.

That’s a bit of a desperate comment… Labour were saying the same thing then, maybe in different words, it’s literally what electioneers do

I agree nothing is certain until about 6am Friday morning.

Voters should take nothing for granted and vote for the outcome they want/need in their seat.

Electoral Calculus is pure stats. It doesn't take into account local nuances or personalities.

Also, in this election, the numberof 'don't knows' is really high. People who normally vote Conservative just don't want a Labour government. They understand it's one or the other.

Lots of people will decide in the polling booth, pencil in hand.

Nah, it’s the desperate tactics being employed by the current PM because (a) he has nothing positive to campaign on, and (b) he knows that his arse is going to be handed to him on a plate.

20% of people are planning to vote tactically. It’s going to be interesting.

That isn't how politics works in this country. A majority gives the ruling party the power to pass laws without the support of another party. A larger majority doesn't give them more power to do this; a majority of any number is enough. The only exception would be a very thin majority of just a handful of seats, where the possibility of rebellion in their own ranks could be a factor. I think you're reaching.

Labour are predicted to take my seat. There’s honestly more chance of hell freezing over. I don’t know a single person voting labour.

Friday is going to be amusing on here