That website is predicting the first ever, and a major swing to Labour for one of the safest Conservative seats in the country.
It's also predicting a swing of tens of thousands of votes in my safe seat.
I'm not buying it.
I'd expect blue gains in 2019 to go back red. I'd expect a lot of marginal seats to turn red. I'd exepct a red majority as the overall outcome.
The Conservatives are clearly going to lose votes, but they're going to split and Reform is a disruptor to vote share and will cost Labour too. This is not 1997. We haven't had years of a fresh, visionary approach. Starmer has opposed, but not exactly lead. He's still holding cards close to his chest about actual hows. The party has long been distracted by side issues and that undermines confidence in their ability to address major issues that affect quality of life.
Polls again and again ignore the impact of quietly conservative voters (small C used deliberately) despite the upset that caused in 2016.
Poor polling does matter, especially where there is a lot of dissatisfaction. It can sway tactical or big picture voters rather than tribal voters. A GE is multilayered- it's voting for a local representative to respresent you nationally. Sometimes good candidates don't match your feelings about their party leadership.
Majority size does matter for the leading party's ability to implement their policies without compromise, as seen in 2010 and 2017. Small majorities and minority governnent causes political inertia as changes of legislation are hard to bring through.