General Election Polling - completely off

[Rusty101]

Just been looking at the polling for mine and 2 neighbouring seats and I really do think it is way off the mark. I know the demographic pretty well and the prediction of Labour wiping out these conservative seats doesn’t really seem likely. It’s the shy Tory syndrome where people don’t want to admit that they will be voting for them. Anyone else feel the same when looking at the polling in their area?

www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/newseatlookup.html

I still don't quite know what I'll do until I get there either. Had decided to vote away from my usual leaning, but going back and forth. Nothing very appealing really, and most of the candidates in my area uninspiring.

See where my cross lands tomorrow!

Mine looks interesting.
My own area has been a safe Tory seat for years, agricultural area.
The neighbouring town was always labour but became a red wall seat and the sitting Tory MP there is quite popular as a local person and has done a good job.

However the boundary change has merged the two and the prediction is a massive Labour majority. The conservative and reform votes predictions are roughly equal and together would exceed the Labour. I suspect the reform votes will come from some of those red wall voters.

I wonder how many potential reform voters will change their minds after the latest defection and revelations.

Nobody that I know who has said they are voting Reform UK will be changing their minds and voting Tory at the last minute. Most people voting Reform UK are doing so because they are sick of the Conservatives and think they have delivered nothing. A lot of former Tory voters who want to see actual Conservative polices implemented are intending to vote Reform UK. I very much doubt they will change their mind.

Reform UK also has a large presence on social media (YouTube, TikTok) and has many more supporters than I think people or pollsters are anticipating.

I do hope Carol gets the plum job Labour has promised her.

The desperation dripping from this post. 😂

How can anyone say this with a straight face after 14 years of Tory recklessness?

It seems from this thread like people who don't like the poll prediction don't believe the polls, and people who are happy with what they say have more confidence in them. We're all looking for confirmation of our own biases - at least in part.

I don't particularly understand multilevel regression and stratification (or even know if I put those words in the right order!) but this article explains how polling methods have changed and become more accurate since Brexit. I think some people assume polls are literally just researchers asking a random sample of passersby who they're voting for and multiplying upwards but it is a lot more complex and scientific.

https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/uk-election-what-is-mrp-method-modelling-opinion-polls-2024-07-02/

The means of polling and interpretation of results have improved vastly since Brexit. It is not the individual result that matters but the trend.
For a few years Labour have been registering a substantial lead over the Tories. For some of this time the lead has been about 20%. That has been consistent and will only be 'wrong' if there is a major event in the last few days that will cause many voters to change their minds. That has not happened (yet).

People making this argument don't seem to realise that the large majority of the people in the world aren't actually voting in the UK general election.

It's the same thing as happened with the London mayoral election. Right wingers thinking that the views of people who didn't get a vote were going to matter.

My constituency has been a Tory safe seat since it's creation 27 years ago. The predictions say Labour will get in this time but I very much doubt it. You could put a blue rosette on a turnip around here and people would still vote for it.

I’m a long time Labour voter. I can’t see the change this county needs under a Starmer government. It’ll be more of the same neoliberal shit.

I'm just replying in the hope you do come back on Friday!

This is definitely one of the most interesting elections I've seen.

Canada 1993 or UK 2010? Surely not UK 1992 or the polls really are broken.

And I think the middle class will keep voting Tory.

“Gosport
Current Holder: Conservative
Majority: 23,278, 48%
Prediction: Likely Conservative
An unchanged seat and one where you’d usually just weigh the Tory votes but some models/MRP have going Labour. I can’t see it unless, again, we’re in total wipeout territory. The MP is Caroline Dinenage, who has held the seat since 2010 and is still probably best known for being TV presenter Fred Dinenage’s daughter. She has held a number of ministerial roles during that time and is now chair of the culture and sport select committee. She might be one of the more experienced MPs left”

From Sam Freedman, who thinks you’re keeping your Tory.

I think I’d rather vote for a turnip with a rosette on it, than a party lead by a man that thinks a woman can have a penis!

Care to elaborate? They've been one of the most accurate of the pollsters.

I think the polling is way out. There will be a trickle rather than a landslide. SNP may be in for a drubbing, but then they deserve it.

I put a bet on a hung parliament ages ago (small, just a fiver) but I think I may wave goodbye to it! But yes I think the outcome of this GE is impossible to call; people are traditionally reluctant to say they are voting Tory and I'd imagine that's even more of the case with Reform.

In the 30+ years I’ve been voting i don’t know anyone who has taken part in a poll so never pay any attention to them

Unless you're actually knocking on doors and talking to people, then you're just making stuff up. 'Not knowing a single person voting Labour' is completely irrelevant. The polls are more accurate than 'someone on Mumsnet'.

However, to anyone reading this who doesn't want a Tory government - this is why you need to turn out and vote Labour (or the non-Tory party of your choice) tomorrow. Don't assume Labour are going to win without your vote.

Good luck with one last push!
Definite change in the air around our affluent Home Counties constituency

I don’t/can’t believe that, either.

THERES NO SUCH THING AS A SUPERMAJORITY IN THIS COUNTRY!!

It's Tory scaremongering.

I’ve filled out quite a few YouGov voting intention polls recently.

You will finally find out after tomorrow and we can also finally see the back of all these desperate/scaremongering Tory threads and desperate/scaremongering Tory campaign....

Yes I hope this is the case.

It was exactly the same on the last election and the brexit vote. Labour spams the internet with the hatred of conservatives and I truly believed they would win. It was a brilliant surprise when conservatives won the last election!