General Election Polling - completely off

[Rusty101]

Just been looking at the polling for mine and 2 neighbouring seats and I really do think it is way off the mark. I know the demographic pretty well and the prediction of Labour wiping out these conservative seats doesn’t really seem likely. It’s the shy Tory syndrome where people don’t want to admit that they will be voting for them. Anyone else feel the same when looking at the polling in their area?

www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/newseatlookup.html

So where does the OP’s “shy tory syndrome” come from ?

I think this thread shows that everyone is in their own echo chamber to some extent - no one is immune! My friends and family are all pretty vocally Labour and always have been but the past few elections have shown me that doesn't mean everyone else feels the same. I think a lot of Tories have got very used to winning and can't conceive of a reality where that changes. I'm in a marginal and the Tories aren't even trying here - the only candidate canvassing and the only posters up anywhere are Labour. I'm still not confident, I'm used to being on the losing side! I don't know how anyone can assert that they know for sure, or that 'real people' think and do such and such. I am a real person who finds Reform abhorrent, loads of real people do. I'm a real person who despises the Tories, plenty if us exist and our lives and concerns and values and beliefs are just as real as anyone else's.

I'm very hopeful about Friday! But we can't get complacent and it's so important to vote!

Not everyone is a loud mouth yob, some people are civilised and respectful and prefer to keep their voting intentions to themselves, nothing to do with shame. I can't believe I am having to explain this to you.

I worry the quiet factor is Reform. Talking with colleagues yesterday and a few said their parents had voted Brexit and would vote Reform. Think there might be a generational split. I work in a rural, traditionally blue to its core, constituency. Labour will not win it but Ed Davey could be happy Thursday morning.

‘I know next to nothing about polling, but I think they are wrong’.

Can’t argue with that. Literally.

A 13% swing to Labour in my true blue area seems highly unlikely. Mind you, it looks like Reform are likely to split the vote, taking votes from the Tories, so who knows? I don't think I can ever remember my constituency being anything other than Tory, even back in 1997. Reform seem to have gathered momentum locally, sadly, and all the news about racist candidates seems to have helped their campaign, not hindered it. Scary times, particularly when you look at Le Pen in France, too. I'd even prefer a Tory returned as MP than a Reform one. I'll be voting Labour.

More than the 9 years he's been MP there? Do you have a link to that because I can't find anything.
He bought his manor house in time for the election when he was voted in.

Yes, I do so hope Liz Truss keeps her seat. She has been such a valuable servant to this country, and impressed all her with dedication and humility.

Why are people ashamed to vote Tory ?

Where have you been living the last 5 years???

If I was asked today how I'm voting I would still say undecided. I think there are a lot of floating voters right now, stuck between a rock and a hard place.

In reality I'll probably vote the same as I usually do - but unenthusiastically. When it comes down to it for me is there's no good choice so I'll stick with what I know because an unknown bad choice is worse than a known bad choice.

The polls are always swung in the favour of the loud minority. The quiet majority doesn't get the recognition needed so the polls tend to be wrong.

I've just checked a true blue constituency I'm familiar with on that site. Predicts it's going red! I find that really hard to believe but who knows?!

‘Sunak was elected as MP for Richmond, in the Yorkshire Dales, in 2015. Prior to that he was working in investment in the City of London.’

Nonsense. Loud or quiet has nothing to do with it, and the polls are usually correct.

Expect Reform to do real damage.

The trans issue is a much bigger issue for Labour than the media have cottoned onto.

Left wingers will stay at home because Starmer’s Labour Party is no longer left wing.

Pinning hopes on Labour to put us back together again is a fool’s errand. Larry Fink of Blackrock is salivating at the ‘once in a generation opportunity to take over infrastructure with massive returns on investment all backed by state guarantees’.

Either way, the country is finished. If you’re not already wealthy and asset rich, expect to remain up the creek.

Hopefully!

I'm in Gloucestershire which is very Tory and they are only expected to hold one seat with the rest going Lib Dem or Labour. In a couple of seats, with a split Lib Dem/Labour second and third place, they have to rely on the Lib Dems voting Labour (or vice versa in other places). I don't think that's always going to work out if both parties are campaigning.
I would be quite surprised if Cheltenham doesn't stay Tory, although none of the polls anywhere think it will. There have been canny boundary changes and a hard push from the MP. They also have no Reform candidate to distract people with.

So based on my location, I would not be confident in all the red I am seeing - though I do of course appreciate it might be different elsewhere.

We’re predicted to swing from Conservative to Lib Dem and I’m certain it will happen. We had a Lib Dem MP for a very long time before the Conservative one got in. Lib Dems have been relentless in their campaigning around here and it feels the Conservative MP has given up. I’ve barely seen anything from Labour but they don’t get a look in anyway.

You cling onto that lovey.

Or perhaps disillusioned Tory voters who had decided not to vote are now alarmed at the predictions of a labour win and vote tory after all.

I think ‘decades’ is stretching it a bit.

Funny how Starmer has lived in his current house waaaay longer (you can just about say ‘decades’ accurately), before his children were even born, yet he gets slated for sending them to his local state school.

@Hummingbird75 just want to make sure you have chance to "get your facts right"

"Nonsense. Loud or quiet has nothing to do with it, and the polls are usually correct."

Really? The polls have regularly been quite a way off the reality. Often the results being the complete opposite of what was predicted. I guess we will soon find out.

I didn't say they're wrong. I said predicting the final outcome is tricky. Not the Labour majority which is clearly coming (thankfully), but in terms of the exact numbers of seats for the other parties. I don't envy the pollsters.

Sometimes the exit poll is so accurate there's practically no need to count the ballots. This time it won't be that accurate. But the government will clearly be Labour.

This is what I think. I think half the people saying they will vote reform will change their mind and vote Tory. It’s all well and good saying to pollsters snd other people in the run up that they will vote reform
but in reality it is different.

I also think, based on a bit of a change of tide in places like MN and responses to debates, quite a few people who wanted to vote Labour will change their mind and go green or Lib Dem.

I think Labour will win, yes, but with half the predicted seats

I'm in Gloucestershire and I predict that Cheltenham, Tewkesbury and North Cotswolds will stay Tory. It wouldn't surprise me if South Cotswolds stayed Tory too. All of these are expected to go Lib Dem (apart from North Cotswolds).

I am so hoping to be wrong but I just don't see that many people changing their votes.

I think middle class people fail to realise how pissed off most people are with left wing politics. Not just in the UK but world over.

I am skeptical of a Labour landslide.