General Election Polling - completely off

[Rusty101]

Just been looking at the polling for mine and 2 neighbouring seats and I really do think it is way off the mark. I know the demographic pretty well and the prediction of Labour wiping out these conservative seats doesn’t really seem likely. It’s the shy Tory syndrome where people don’t want to admit that they will be voting for them. Anyone else feel the same when looking at the polling in their area?

www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/newseatlookup.html

? Wonder what makes them embarrassed to say they are tory

i dont think they are embarrassed

i just think that a lot of them are bored rigid of being called stupid and can’t be arsed to enter a debate where the sole purpose is to have a go at them and call them all sorts of names for making a democratic vote

the vast vast majority of the insults are completely one way on here

The supermajority thing is ridiculous. A majority one 1 is enough to so anything in this country. It's like the Tories are hoping we'll give them a consolation seat.

I called your post, not you "ludicrous". You, on the other hand, chose to call me "desperate" and a child. One of us is rude, but it isn't me. Still, Tories gonna Tory, I suppose.

This is a strange article to post as it’s saying how polling over the last 8yrs has become more sophisticated and accurate.

Polling is a snapshot in time, but it is conducted over and over again, over time, which is why it is so valuable. The election is also a snapshot in time.

As Rishi has learned in the past several weeks, you can't back up fiction.

I think a lot of people who intended to vote reform will at the last minute change their minds and vote conservative to keep labour out of their seats.

I know labour gains in east anglia are laughably inaccurate. I live here. They don’t have a prayer of winning my seat but I will vote tactically and vote conservative just in case pigs have learnt to fly

But the larger your majority, the easier it is to do things while in government and the less you have to rely on cross party support.

I think we might be in the same area 🙂

That will be me - still very much undecided.

EC has my true blue seat going to Labour resoundingly. Will be interesting to see if they’re right. Labour candidate was appointed very late and presents quite poorly, Conservative candidate certainly presents a far more convincing case.

Interesting times.

Respectfully, while, yes, a supermajority isn’t necessary, a weak majority is not always enough. Enough to form a government, yes. Enough to form a strong government that can implement its policies with ease, no. Minority governments and coalitions are no good things.

Tell us your constituency then we can see how right you were on Friday morning.

The Labour candidate here was flown in from elsewhere in the country. I don't even know his name.

No one needs to do that on a public forum, thanks.

More chance of Nigel being PM on Friday morning than there is of that red map in Norfolk and Suffolk happening.

I will be back to eat my words Friday if it happens but it won’t.

That's on you if you don't know his name. There are leaflets and websites.

It's very common practice. Most big Tory names are in constituencies they have no connection with - just to give them a safe seat. Sunak isn't really a Yorkshire man!

Even if every reform vote went to conservative (which it won’t, but I do agree some will), it still wouldn’t make a difference.

Websites like EC are for the general picture. They don't pick up on the local element. There are always some MPs who keep their seats against the swing, and others who lose them on a bigger swing against incumbents than average. No doubt we'll see that again.

It doesn't look like we're going to be in a position where that has an impact on the overall result this time though. There are also invariably some MPs who, though locally popular, still lose their seats because of the national picture. Charles Kennedy in 2015, Dennis Skinner in 2019 etc.

Why are people ashamed to vote Tory ?

🤔

I am not, and I don't know anyone that is. Our county is plastered in blue boards!!

It turned out that Boris Johnson was the lying, venal monster so many of us thought, though. I don’t see anyone feeling the same way about Starmer although the Conservatives wish we did.

Have all those people saying "my seat is true blue, been Tory for decades" forgotten about the red wall in 2019?

Big swings do happen if the usually dominant party is in a very bad place, which Labour were five years ago and the Tories are now.

What exactly have the Tories offered in the last five years other than chaos?

Same for my seat, I looked at the breakdown and every single ward bar one has been conservative and they are all now predicted to be labour. I haven’t seen a single labour sign in my constituency, but quite a few for tories and Lib Dem’s. I just find it very hard to believe my rural safe Tory seat is going to have such a hard swing towards Labour. The Labour candidate isn’t even local, whereas the Tory one has lived here ages and has strong community links.

Not really. I covered the issue of very small majorities. With a majority of, say, 30, a government could pass laws unopposed. If that majority was 200, the position would be exactly the same. Objectively, therefore, "supermajority" is meaningless.

Sunak has had a house in Yorkshire for decades, get your facts right. He has hosted christmas drinks for the entire village for years and years.