General Election Polling - completely off

[Rusty101]

Just been looking at the polling for mine and 2 neighbouring seats and I really do think it is way off the mark. I know the demographic pretty well and the prediction of Labour wiping out these conservative seats doesn’t really seem likely. It’s the shy Tory syndrome where people don’t want to admit that they will be voting for them. Anyone else feel the same when looking at the polling in their area?

www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/newseatlookup.html

It predicts a landslide labour win for my constituency. I’d be very very surprised, I think it will be close. The boundary changes make it tricky to predict from past experience, but the Tory MP is popular as an individual (even where I live, and we’ve been shifted into his existing constituency), and I think that people might say they’re voting labour, but when it comes to the day and they’re thinking about their actual MP they’ll stick with who they know.

Where does a majority end and a supermajority (?!) begin?

I’d be surprised an entirely made up, totally bollocks concept is “landing”.

And such ambition from the Tories - they aren’t even talking about winning.

You’re missing the point. The more support a party thinks it has, as measured by seats the more bold it will be in its policy proposals… of which Labour have currently made very few. Which is what is concerning to many voters.

Calm down, this is so cringe,

I don’t disagree, but anyone in his position would do the same.

I fear Labour voters won't go out and vote. But also many traditional Conservative voters are disgusted with this lot. At least Thatcher was honest in what she was doing, and thought it would improve the country (it did for the South and the better off). Since Johnson the party has been an embarrassment. Particularly as they then went and trashed the economy.

Op I also think the polls are wrong , they usually are, and I’m not sure why, I think people lie for some reason.

Lots of wishful thinking in this thread.

Even the Tories have accepted they are going to be wiped out.

I think rather than shy Tory voters, there are a lot of shy Reform UK voters. Similar to Brexit, most of those ‘on the left’ won’t be able to fathom anyone voting differently to what they consider to be the status quo.

Everyone I’ve spoken to is voting Reform UK, but wouldn’t admit it publicly for fear of being called a racist / bigot. It’s Brexit all over again. They are frankly sick of the same people in different ties.

That’s not to say Reform UK will end up with a majority of seats, but I do believe they will get more than anticipated and large percentage of the overall votes.

This thread is great. It will motivate so many to go out and vote Labour tomorrow. Keep it coming!

And here lies the problem.

It's cute you think you know better than extremely well qualified statistics professionals, based your sample of mates.

MRPs are accurate, they are not like old style polls.

Also all the shy Tories are voting Reform.

Braverman published in the Telegraph today saying that it’s over and the Tories need to prepare to be at least some sort of opposition party, whilst positioning herself for being the new Tory leader by claiming the party needs to lurch even further to the right.

Sam Freedman (political commentator) has been doing seat by seat predictions that do take into account personalities, scandals and independent candidates. He also predicts a large majority for Labour.

As for 'shy Tories', I know a couple of previously proud Tories and neither of them are voting Conservative this time as they are disgusted with what the party has turned into. I don't know why people think there will be loads of shy Tories still sticking with them when loads of even their own MPs have stepped down and don't want to represent them anymore.

The means of polling and interpretation of results have improved vastly since Brexit. It is not the individual result that matters but the trend.
For a few years Labour have been registering a substantial lead over the Tories. For some of this time the lead has been about 20%. That has been consistent and will only be 'wrong' if there is a major event in the last few days that will cause many voters to change their minds. That has not happened (yet).

Mine looks essentially accurate but a little too optimistic on the Labour gains on that particular site, but I’ve looked at many, many different predictions for my seat that are more sobering. Those more sobering polling avenues are still all predicting the red wipeout. Polling has become a lot more sophisticated since 2016 and the polls drawn from metadata are largely all showing the same outcome. You can perhaps expect a change of up to 10 points – but not 20.

65% tory predicted here,
9% reform
lib dems, lab, green very low

even though things were different in the local election

The problem for the Tories is that pissed off Conservatives do now have someone else to vote for - Reform.

Reform have had their issues this week but I doubt some racism is going to put off very many of their potential voters, who probably share similar views or will put it down to “bad eggs”.

It’s a perfect storm, and could realistically be wipe out time. Might not be of course, that’s why it’s an exciting election.

Agreed.

You can’t really extrapolate from local elections though - people tend to vote for candidates that they think have the best policies for their local area rather than along party lines.

What’s your constituency?

They usually aren't. Do you have any evidence to back up this ludicrous claim?

I hope that isn't true. There's a good reason for people to be embarrassed to vote Tory after the damage they've done and the lies they've told. They had plenty of opportunities to make this country's future brighter for all, yet they put personal profit above all. Just my opinion of course and Im glad we can all make our own choices. We'll all just have to wait and see.

Why do people keep giving Brexit as an example of the polls being wrong? They all had it very close. The polls going into the referendum said there wouldn't be much in it and lo and behold, there wasn't.

This is true. The polls for this election consistently show a huge Labour lead and that has never really changed - they aren’t even narrowing in the direction of the Tories. Nothing is putting a dent in it.