Page 24 | General Election Polling - completely off

Rusty101 · 2024-07-03T01:45:08+00:00

Just been looking at the polling for mine and 2 neighbouring seats and I really do think it is way off the mark. I know the demographic pretty well and the prediction of Labour wiping out these conservative seats doesn’t really seem likely. It’s the shy Tory syndrome where people don’t want to admit that they will be voting for them. Anyone else feel the same when looking at the polling in their area? https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/newseatlookup.html

MassiveOvaryaction · 05/07/2024 13:22

ClaudiaWankleman · 05/07/2024 12:44

I'm not expert but the results of SW Norfolk seem to me to be completely about Liz Truss as a person, rather than party/ ideology (and I don't think that is surprising?)

Conservatives lost 43.4% of their previous voting share. 22.5% of that went to Reform, 14.2% to an independent who I don't know much about - seems like an 'old fashioned' conservative(?), and 8.4% to Labour. Given the wide spread of ideologies that the voting share has gone to I'd suggest it was a bit of an 'anyone but Liz' vote. Would anyone agree or have I misunderstood it?

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I think you're right.

Although Labour voters are happy with the result, in quite a few seats where they've ousted the Tories I don't think they could have done it without Reform taking a share of the Tory vote.

Said to dh earlier I think it's a result of much more "Boo Tories" than "Yay Labour!".

justasking111 · 05/07/2024 13:24

MassiveOvaryaction · 05/07/2024 13:22

I think you're right.

Although Labour voters are happy with the result, in quite a few seats where they've ousted the Tories I don't think they could have done it without Reform taking a share of the Tory vote.

Said to dh earlier I think it's a result of much more "Boo Tories" than "Yay Labour!".

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Completely agree. The Tories hubris/arrogance as one political commentator put it led to their complete downfall.

DanielGault · 05/07/2024 13:32

justasking111 · 05/07/2024 13:21

"All political lives end in failure"

Saw that quote once and it resonated with me. So many politicians here and across the world have made the fatal error of keeping going when the writing is on the wall.

I look across the pond at Joe Biden and think why? Why aren't his family intervening?

You really would have to wonder about him alright. It's like they're trying to kill him!

Payattentioninclass · 05/07/2024 13:33

BezMills · 05/07/2024 12:28

true story. A party full of chiefs, nobody wants to do the work.

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Farage wants to take over the Tory Party because that has a ready made national organisation he can make use of. And sadly the Tory party membership - though not MPs - may welcome him.

cardibach · 05/07/2024 13:37

LoopRoo · 05/07/2024 11:32

Labour didn’t take my constituency, nor nearby Jeremy Hunt’s. Though close, I am in a very safe Tory area.

I was correct in my prediction that Reform UK would do better than expected, not in seats, but they are the third biggest party in the UK by popular vote.

Whatever your opinion of Reform UK, it is clear to me that we need to move to a proportional system in this country; the election results do not represent the voting of the public accurately, and haven’t done for many years. It should not be that a party, in this case Labour, can essentially get complete control of parliament whilst winning only a third of the votes of the electorate.

As has been pointed out - votes under FPTP don’t map onto votes under PR because of tactical voting (and a few other things). I don’t disagree about needing something more representative, but don’t assume the vote shares will stay the same.

LoopRoo · 05/07/2024 13:39

HelenaWaiting · 05/07/2024 13:17

It never changes. FPTP is fine when the Tories win, but not good enough when it puts Labour in power. Whilst I am happy with either system (PR also has its drawbacks - look up Greens in Scottish Government for example) the last thing I would ever advocate is moving to PR to assist the Reform Party. The last, the very last thing this country needs is neo-facists.

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FPTP isn’t fit no matter who wins; I have no allegiance to Labour or Conservative, have always voted independent and have championed PR long before Reform UK even existed.

urbanbuddha · 05/07/2024 13:41

Bloody awful turnout. They really need a "none of the above" box on the ballot to try and get at least some of the non voters into the booths.

I agree with that. The turnout for a general election’s appalling. Although given all the hype about a supermajority you could argue that some Labour inclined voters thought it was in the bag and just didn’t bother.

justasking111 · 05/07/2024 14:09

urbanbuddha · 05/07/2024 13:41

Bloody awful turnout. They really need a "none of the above" box on the ballot to try and get at least some of the non voters into the booths.

I agree with that. The turnout for a general election’s appalling. Although given all the hype about a supermajority you could argue that some Labour inclined voters thought it was in the bag and just didn’t bother.

I've been at the hospital all morning, what was the percentage turnout please?

CasperGutman · 05/07/2024 14:21

justasking111 · 05/07/2024 14:09

I've been at the hospital all morning, what was the percentage turnout please?

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It's thought to have been about 60%, so the lowest since 2001 when it was 59.1%. Before that, you'd have to go back to 1918 to find a lower turnout (57.2%) but there may have been some specific issues back then....

Source: UK voter turnout 2024 | Statista

justasking111 · 05/07/2024 14:27

CasperGutman · 05/07/2024 14:21

It's thought to have been about 60%, so the lowest since 2001 when it was 59.1%. Before that, you'd have to go back to 1918 to find a lower turnout (57.2%) but there may have been some specific issues back then....

Source: UK voter turnout 2024 | Statista

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Jakers, so 40% are disillusioned with politics. Well so am I.

notquitetonedeaf · 05/07/2024 14:33

notquitetonedeaf · 03/07/2024 09:31

It's not so much that labour have won it, as the Tories have lost it. The right wing vote being split between tory and reform have handed it to labour. Labour don't need to do (and haven't done) that well. One thing that will reduce Labour's majority is low turnout because people think it's a done deal. The electoralcalculus figures seem too optimistic for Labour but I'd have thought they'll still manage 400 seats.
What's more concerning is what'll happen at the next election. An emboldened Farage unifying the hard right, while the moderate vote gets split between labour and lib dem could be a big problem - look at what's happening in France with Le Pen.

I am wishing I'd bet on this now...

Aubaslice · 05/07/2024 15:31

FlameGrilledSquirrel · 05/07/2024 12:20

Much as I'll congratulate Labour for the win, you can't take this as a resounding vote for Labour, only a resounding vote against the Tories.

The number of people who actually voted for Labour compared to 1997 was down by about 3 million whereas the population has increased by about 8 million in the same time.

Bloody awful turnout. They really need a "none of the above" box on the ballot to try and get at least some of the non voters into the booths.

I agree with you on the low turnout. It's terrible. We really should be looking for a minimum of 85%. However, one thing I would say about the Labour vote share is that they stood down many candidates to enable tactical voting. That masks the true intention of voters. I know a load of voters in Devon who would normally vote Labour but went Lib Dem this time.

Cangar · 05/07/2024 15:37

This is interesting

https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/voter-turnout-by-country

It’s not wildly low if you look at global averages. Australia is very high but they have compulsory voting. Definitely not a particularly UK issue anyway.

Voter Turnout by Country 2024

https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/voter-turnout-by-country

cardibach · 05/07/2024 15:41

Aubaslice · 05/07/2024 15:31

I agree with you on the low turnout. It's terrible. We really should be looking for a minimum of 85%. However, one thing I would say about the Labour vote share is that they stood down many candidates to enable tactical voting. That masks the true intention of voters. I know a load of voters in Devon who would normally vote Labour but went Lib Dem this time.

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I don’t think they stood anyone down. I think it’s actually against their constitution. They didn’t campaign in sone areas though.

pucelleauxblanchesmains · 05/07/2024 15:57

Seen people on twitter who were crowing about the Tories "winning fair and square" in 2015 who now have serious doubts about the distortions produced by FPTP. Issue is whoever gets in power immediately has no incentive to change anything , because by definition the system has benefitted them.

BIossomtoes · 05/07/2024 16:39

Aubaslice · 05/07/2024 15:31

I agree with you on the low turnout. It's terrible. We really should be looking for a minimum of 85%. However, one thing I would say about the Labour vote share is that they stood down many candidates to enable tactical voting. That masks the true intention of voters. I know a load of voters in Devon who would normally vote Labour but went Lib Dem this time.

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I don’t think there was any tactical withdrawal by any party. Individual voters voted tactically.

HelenaWaiting · 05/07/2024 18:53

Aubaslice · 05/07/2024 15:31

I agree with you on the low turnout. It's terrible. We really should be looking for a minimum of 85%. However, one thing I would say about the Labour vote share is that they stood down many candidates to enable tactical voting. That masks the true intention of voters. I know a load of voters in Devon who would normally vote Labour but went Lib Dem this time.

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That is demonstrably untrue.

FrivolousKitchenRollUse · 05/07/2024 20:35

Come gather 'round people wherever you roam....

OMGitsnotgood · 05/07/2024 23:28

However, one thing I would say about the Labour vote share is that they stood down many candidates to enable tactical voting.

You can't make a claim like that without backing it ip. Link please

fliptopbin · 05/07/2024 23:33

Somebody much wiser than me said that the outcome of elections has very litte to do with what the individual parties offer. Rather, election results are decided by how much the public simply want a change from the status quo, whatever that may be.

verdantverdure · 06/07/2024 01:50

So if the people elect 411 Labour MPs + 72 Lib Dems, + 9 SNPs + 4 Greens + 6 Independents the people are doing an Andrea Jenkyns gesture at divisive populist right wing politics?

dollybird · 06/07/2024 08:41

dollybird · 03/07/2024 14:14

For my constituency it's giving a 99% chance of a win for LD from the Tories with 53% of the vote. We've been Tory for the last 3 GEs and before that it was LD for about 20 years, and Tory prior to that. It's also saying all wards will switch from. Tory to LD. There's been a boundary change, but the two surrounding seats are also currently Tory.

I won't be surprised if the seat goes to the lib Dems, but not by as much. They are very unpopular in some quarters as the council are LD and have racked up huge debt on irresponsible development, and the Tory MP has been very good at holding them to account. If they have the MP as well it could be disastrous for the area.

Our MP is moving to the new constituency next door, but the new guy is very proactive and seems like a good guy who would work hard for the area.

I got it right. LD won, but with only 34.5% of the vote, 0.1% less than 2019 and less votes than then too. I. The end there was only 1500 votes between them and the Tories, but Reform took a large chunk of the Tory vote. Disappointing for our local area.

Baital · 06/07/2024 11:07

cardibach · 05/07/2024 15:41

I don’t think they stood anyone down. I think it’s actually against their constitution. They didn’t campaign in sone areas though.

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This.

Parties only have a certain amount of central money and people, so they focus on the constituencies they are most likely to win.

They put up candidates in other constituencies, but it is left to the local candidate and their team/volunteers to run their own campaign.

In some cases - the Bristol seat that the Greens won - the seat is a target for two parties (in that cases Green and Labour). There were Lib Dem, Conservative etc other candidates though, none of the main parties 'stood down' their candidate.

Labour and Lib Dems have different target seats, in most cases, that's all. That doesn't mean they 'stood down' candidates.