To wonder which way the vote will go?

[ManchesterBeatrice]

There'll be a general election this year and there's been such a lot of chat everywhere about the Torys losing.

I'd love to think this will be the case, but was thinking where will the votes go! I've always voted labour, and will again, but is there a chance the Torys might get back in?

Maybe there's a big set of silent voters who'll vote them back!

Is the consensus here that they will lose? And if so, to labour?

Oh there's a lot of Tory enthusiasts on here. Has Jonathan Gullis joined Mumsnet to celebrate his New and Very Important Role in the Incompetents Party? How many MPs have walked away since they got that 80 majority? Be quick with your support, fans, while there's still some of them left in post 👋 👋 👋

I have a horrible feeling it will be a coalition and the worst of all worlds.

Agreed. Toys haven't brought an extremely hard Tory Brexit or buggered up the housing market and health service. Buzz Lightyear for PM. Woody for Chancellor I think. Make Bob the Builder Housing minister. Peppa Pig for the Health service. Although she may want to work against the stereotype? Minister of Defence maybe.

Given there are appararently people who did not realise that Labour are course for a massive landslide in the next GE, it is I think safe to assume that some people also believed Sunak when he said there would be free childcare, but meant he was siphoning tax payer's money to his wife's business.

Like I said, I will stand corrected.

But may I point out that my cousin, a dye in the wool Tory, will still vote Conservative.

Don't be convinced this will be a whitewash.

My pils...never voted anything but Tory

Not voting this time.

That's ^ why Labour will get in. Not because they offer hope to people

I reckon its not a question of being convinced, more of looking at as much of the available evidence as possible.

Recent elections, polling and so on.

Such as

https://www.markpack.org.uk/155623/voting-intention-opinion-poll-scorecard/

I think Labour will win, though it might not be the landslide that some are predicting.

Oh Jess! You must have missed the cringey video where they talked about who makes the bed and loads the dishwasher ( they think we are dumb enough to believe they don't have domestic help).

Any protest votes not going to the second runners ie labour contributes to the risk of conservatives getting in, as it only reduces the conservative margin by one vote whereas a switch to labour from conservative increases the labour margin by two.
You are also missing the obvious, the protest votes from annoyed labour voters who dont feel they can vote for Kier Starmer.

Out of curiosity, how large a majority would count as a landslide?

Boris' 80 seat majority was widely considered a landslide, so presumably less than that is the mark?

I think it may be more.

Agree with this. There's loads in my town who will turn out on the day and vote Conservative.

Well, I am not missing the obvious as I am not voting Labour in protest at Reeves and Kendall's remarks about the sick and disabled! But I am in a Labour stronghold. If I was not I would vote tactically to keep the Tories out. I think a lot of protest voters will do the same.

Logically, if the Conservative Party stood a chance, they'd call an election now? They are leaving it to the last possible moment for a reason.

Opinion polls show Labour well ahead.

It's not over until it's over, and I don't know what's going to happen, but at the moment it looks like a comfortable win for Labour.

Logically, if the Conservative Party stood a chance, they'd call an election now? They are leaving it to the last possible moment for a reason

Exactly. And Tory MPs wouldn't be resigning.

They have to be pretty desperate and running out of options to promote that thug Gullis.

Spot on.

Rishi is holding on to the bitter end, hoping something will turn up to save him & his party. Just as Major did in 1997 & Brown did in 2010. Both lost, of course.

And the Tory rats are deserting the sinking ship for a reason. They aren’t stupid, after all.

Those ex ministers who jumped in the autumn must be pissed off.
They jumped then assuming there would be a May election and would have had their 6 month cooling off period before taking up a new job in business, and now Sunak is dragging it out. My heart bleeds for them.

Politics can obviously be very fluid but I think the bookies have it about right - 83% chance of a Labour majority, 12.5% chance of a hung parliament, very little prospect of anything else.

The unexpected Brexit result is too recent for me to feel confident the tories will be out.

The polls leading up to the Brexit referendum were fairly constant with the result being close, and each possible outcome being within the margin of error of many of them.

Currently if the polls are a little bit out then Labour get a majority of 200 not 250.

Labour usually have to mop up after the Tories but somehow still get blamed and shamed. You couldn't make it up...

Google keir starmer young ,he was a very a very handsome man apparently mark D'Arcy from the Bridget Jones books were based on him
I'm not particularly keen on him although I do think he will probably win the next general election butb i don't feel he inspires confidence in his party more that a lot of of the electorate appear to want the Tories out

Anyone who thought Brexit would never happen wasn't looking at the screaming anti-EU headlines, day after day, in the right-wing tabloids.

No, I didn't buy them, but the headlines could be seen from a mile away in stationers and convenience stores.

I voted Remain, and I didn't think Brexit would definitely happen, but I certainly thought it was a possibility.