To wonder which way the vote will go?

[ManchesterBeatrice]

There'll be a general election this year and there's been such a lot of chat everywhere about the Torys losing.

I'd love to think this will be the case, but was thinking where will the votes go! I've always voted labour, and will again, but is there a chance the Torys might get back in?

Maybe there's a big set of silent voters who'll vote them back!

Is the consensus here that they will lose? And if so, to labour?

Some people are predicting a majority of over 200. I'm not sure that it would be in that area.

One possible effect of the stronger predictions is that if they do get a majority of something like 80, some people will treat it as disappointing and not a landslide at all!

That's a horrible thing to say; no better than saying that a particular ethnic or regional group 'screwed' things for the rest of the country. Which would rightly be jumped on. It's no better to attack people for when they were born than for where they were born.

The people who screwed things for everyone were IMO Thatcher and her government. And voting for or against Thatcher was influenced much more by region and social class than by age. It's only quite recently that age has been a major determinant of voting choice. It wasn't the case in the 80s.

BTW, I'm in my 60s and have never voted Tory in my life..

But the question if as you say it will not be a landslide is what is meant by a landslide?

What help do you want or expect on “a decent salary”?

I said that it might not be 'the landslide that some are predicting'; not necessarily that it wouldn't be a landslide at all. I meant that it might not be close to 200 votes.

If I had to guess, I'd say it will be something like 60 to 70 votes; but I could be utterly wrong.

A landslide is a majority which allows the governing party more-or-less unrestricted power to carry out its chosen policies. This depends not only on the size of the majority but on factors such as how unified the governing party is.

Indeed so you said it might not be a landslide, but were not prepared to say what a landslide would look like.

60 or 70 seats is in most people's views a landslide I would have thought, especially having started 80 behind.

I think it will be around 100 majority to Labour - the main reason being I think many of those voting Reform are too politically unaware to realise they are simply splitting the right wing vote- judging by comments on x - I am amazed that some seriously do not realise how the electoral system works in the UK- whereas I think left of centre voters are wise enough to basically vote whichever way be it Lib Dem or Labour to get the Tory's out. I do think though the Tory's will hang on in certain kinds of rural communities-who in their right minds would vote for Therese Coffey or Rees Mogg (just up the road from us) - but people do.

Oh and I have the champagne on ice- I expect Labour to be able to do very little initially- but that's not the point for me --it's about 'the intent' - Labour are limited in what they can do but in my opinion do not intend to fleece the treasury for personal benefit, party donors benefit or company's they want to get consultancies with benefit- the current Tory's to be frank are spivs!

I think you have misunderstood my original statement, which may not have been as clear as it should have been.

I didn't mean that it wouldn't be a landslide at all; I meant that it might not be the sort of landslide that some people were predicting. Some people have predicted majorities of 200 or more. I somehow doubt that it will be that.

I think we'll end up with a coalition government.

I'm a lifelong (mid 30s) labour support but frankly after the repeated lack of support for (and double standards against) Diane abbot I as a black woman won't vote for kier (many black voters have expressed the same to me).
Given the way kier and labour have supported Israel's ongoing genocide of Palestinians I can't see how anyone but especially any Muslims would vote for labour either.

Personally I'm not being drawn into voting for the (supposed) least worst candidates - Kier can sink or swim on his own policies. I'm voting green or independent.

Latest polling, suggests a 4% chance of a minority Labour government, which might be a coalition.
May I suggest not putting your money on it?

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/prediction_main.html

This is interesting that it predicts lib dems get 44 seats. 44?! No one votes lib dem any more, do they?

I think you are confusing the Lib Dems with the Tories.

@JessS1990 the polls also said remain, also said Jeremy Corbin would win for Labour....

If I were you I wouldn't put my money on the polls being correct.

Nope, that is the predicted seat total for the Lib Dems on current polling.

@TrudyProud the polls did not predict remain, nor did they predict a Corbyn victory in 2019. Electoral Calculus has been correct in all but one of the last 9 elections, and they also called the Tory majority in 2019. But comfort yourself with forlorn hope by all means.

Meanwhile I am making sure my young people are properly registered to vote where they will be when the GE happens because they are keen to vote the fuckers out.

Your memory appears to be misleading you.
Prior to the referendum many of the polls had both results within the margin of error.

Could you perhaps share with us when the Labour party led by Jeremy Corbyn had a sufficient lead in the opinion polls to expect to win a General Election.

I am in an absolute dilemma about who to vote for. The Tories have seemingly completely run this country into the ground, but I will be absolutely screwed if Labour get in and go ahead with their plans for private schools, as it's already a huge stretch to pay the fees. I would be devastated if we had to take our DS out of his school, as he is happy and thriving and it's the perfect environment for him. Locally, a Labour vote is a wasted vote, as we are in a Tory/Lib Dem area, so I think maybe I will be forced to vote Lib Dem :-/ The reality is that I don't have much confidence in any of them.

Please please anyone who doesn’t want another conservative government please vote for the second most popular party in your area. This will often be labour but could be Lib Dem, Green or Independent.
For myself though I may have to draw the line at voting Reform if they were the second runners.

I would be really surprised if the Tories got in again.

@AliTheMinx yes exactly this, whatever we think of the contending candidate, a vote for anything other than the second placed candidate in a conservative area is a wasted vote (if we don’t want another conservative government).

Second this

The way the electoral system works ( England. And wales ) a party could end up with half the vote and still not form a government so we need to make votes count as best we can

I find it interesting lately that I have heard quite a few people say things like 'I loathe and detest Thatcher, but at least she was guided by a belief she was doing the right thing for the country, whereas this lot are utterly self-serving'.

I live in what is very much a target constituency for Labour - the Tories have held I think mainly as the local MP is popular and is a good constituency MP, but he's standing down so they haven't a chance without him. Plus Labour has selected a very good candidate for the area

@JessS1990 @pointythings maybe it is. Fact remains I still think it will be a coalition government this general election.

I want the conservatives out and won't be voting for Kier as I don't agree with his politics and policies as it pertains to Israel's genocide or treatment of Diane abbot.

I'll be voting green or independent in the GE and London mayor elections.

I'm sick of both major parties

You are perfectly entitled to think anything you like, but the weight of available evidence suggests a very different outcome.