To wonder which way the vote will go?

[ManchesterBeatrice]

There'll be a general election this year and there's been such a lot of chat everywhere about the Torys losing.

I'd love to think this will be the case, but was thinking where will the votes go! I've always voted labour, and will again, but is there a chance the Torys might get back in?

Maybe there's a big set of silent voters who'll vote them back!

Is the consensus here that they will lose? And if so, to labour?

No need to wonder, one could take a look at polling and analysis such as.

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/prediction_main.html

Yes. But Brexit was not a GE, was it? So comparing apples and oranges.

The polls (and possibly the bookies I haven't checked) have called every GE right since 1992. In 1992 the polls were very narrow, not the 20 point lead Labour has now.

Toys are more likely to win than the Tories, I think on that we can agree.

If opinion polling means anything, the Tories are going to lose the election this year, and they are going to lose very badly. Labour’s lead is very large, & very consistent. Governing parties who are this far behind this close to an election don’t recover. Support for the Tories is, if anything, weakening. The Lib Dems are a threat to them in many middle class areas in the south which voted Remain in 2016. Almost all ‘Red Wall’ seats in the Midlands & North are expected to revert to Labour. And the Tories are being attacked by Reform on the populist right.

BUT the election is still at least 6 months away. That’s a long time in politics, and something unexpected might turn up to help the Tories. History tells us that the polls will tighten as we get closer to election day, and the right wing press start trashing Labour every day. Many traditional Tory voters who are very angry about the government’s record on immigration might decide that Labour would only be worse and decide to hold their noses & still vote Conservative. Left wing voters who are very angry about Labour’s stance on Israel / Gaza might defect to the Greens.

Is any of this likely to stop Labour winning? Absolutely not. But it might be enough to prevent a 1997 style landslide.

BUT the election is still at least 6 months away. That’s a long time in politics, and something unexpected might turn up to help the Tories

Yep. That is a worry. Can't think what would help the Tories, but there could be something.

Yes, I think “protest” voters (including ballot spoilers) and non voters could result in conservatives getting back in again

Ok, so I have only read the first page of this thread, I must say I am impressed by the number of posters who are utterly unaware of the current polling. But then I suppose somewhere around 18% of the country are still saying they will vote Tory.

There is even a poster who appears to be unaware that Sunak was at some of the same illegal parties as Johnson and sat next to Johnson whilst Johnson lied to parliament about said illegal parties.
Integrity my arse.

Me neither!

Boris returning? Starmer being caught on a microphone slagging off working class Brexit voters or saying he plans to rejoin the EU? A meteorite strike?

Are there still posters voting Tory because they know what a woman is, and how to treat one?

Eh?

Most of the "protest votes" are Tories going to Reform UK.

The people most likely to stay at home are the disaffected Tory voters.

The rest of us want rid of the fuckers. There will be a lot of tactical voting.

Is the increase in migrants crossing the Channel a boast for the Tories?
As far as I understand they are keen on immigration, not surprising given they are led by someone who like me has been a migrant.

Labour will win with a significant majority. And about time too.

May I recommend taking a look at

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/prediction_main.html

or

https://www.markpack.org.uk/155623/voting-intention-opinion-poll-scorecard/

Sunak is currently less popular than Truss was at her least popular.

https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/explore/public_figure/Rishi_Sunak

I have no idea. I just see lots of anger on Twitter/X from Terfs against Labour but don't know who they will be voting for instead.

I am very much a live and let live person so it isn't an issue that would influence how I vote. I am a sulky non voter (another poster's phrase) - sulky because at present no party seems to represent me. I will wait to see the manifestos to see if I can be persuaded to become a reluctant voter or indeed a happy voter.

Also somewhat surprised by all the people who have not seen any polls. I am not sure they are posting in good faith. Clearly polls aren't always accurate but there is no party apart from Labour or Con who could win, so if the Con vote is split, even if the majority isn't as huge as polls currently suggest, it's still likely to be a Labour victory.

I think a large number of these posters are just trolling. I mean, anyone who says things like 'every time Labour gets in they wreck a thriving economy' must be thinking of elections a very, very long time ago, since that didn't happen in '97 which is the last time Labour took over from the Tories. And, by the way, the economy is shit at the moment so no thriving to speak of.

Labour are bailing on funded childcare hours and can't define what a woman is - they are well on their way to losing half the voting population.

Far from it! Planes full of illegal immigrants actually taking off bound for Rwanda might, though…

May I recommend taking a look at youguv's polling. Accepting that it is owned by a well known left winger.

https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/48974-voting-intention-con-19-lab-44-19-20-mar-2024

Quite stark isn't it 21% of women polled said they would vote Tory, 46% Labour.
Labour are arguably performing slightly better amoung women voters than men.

This is what is known as evidence.

I thought Rwanda had only agreed to take less than a plane full of migrants?

84% of respondents in Youguv's most recent survey suggest the government is doing badly on migration. So i am not convinced that removing even 1000 migrants (note that is not much more than 1% of the migrants who came to the UK last year) would move the dial much.

https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/trackers/how-the-government-is-handling-the-issue-of-immigration-in-the-uk

I think Labour will win, but I don't think it will be the massive landslide the polls seem to be predicting. I remember 1992, when Labour were predicted to win and were beaten by Major's Tories, even though Major's personal popularity was low.

Normally, as a lifelong Labour supporter, I would be delighted by the prospect of a Labour win, but I think they've moved so far to the centre they're probably not much to the left of the Tory governments we had under Heath and unlikely to deliver radical change. I'm fully prepared to be disappointed by them.

I live in a Tory/LD marginal, so will vote tactically in the hope that we see the back of the dim personality vaccuum that is our Tory MP.

I doubt Labour are well on their way to losing half the population.

Did any polls prior to the 1992 election show Labour with a 20% point lead?
Let alone poll after polls for months?

No l don’t think they were. They weren’t far ahead. There was a very small Labour majority prediction which got smaller as the election date neared. Or a hung parliament.

I only remember this level when Blair was in the wings.

Yes I feel a bit like labour will win. But not a landslide.

I have a varied circle but don't know any single issue Tory voters in real life so don't think it will sway it overall.

We shall see.

Thanks for the poll links ☺️