Dave is Back!!!

[LadyMacB]

Dave Cameron is back in the cabinet…. desperate throw of the dice or inspired move to limit the inevitable defeat?

Yes, I'd rather have David Cameron as Foreign Secretary than have one of the ERG extremists setting off World War III between now and the next General Election.

OK an ERG extremist would fan the flames to set off WW3. By contrast Cameron would probably do that by accident, as he accidentally caused us to leave the EU.

Despite some claims that the EU was a big issue, until the Referendum the vast majority of people in the UK didn't think it was.

In which case I suggest you take a look at the current polls.

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/prediction_main.html

I somewhat doubt having a former Senior Minister rubbishing the Prime Minister is going to help the Tories electoral chances.

In which case I suggest you take a look at the current polls.

This is of course, last month's news, when we know that a week is a long time in politics.

It will be interesting to see whether bringing back 'Call me Dave' aka Lord Snooty will improve the Tories fortunes.

Cameron also helped cause the current migrant crisis we see in the Mediterranean, he along with with France removed Gaddafi, replaced him with nothing, so now we have a failed state and criminal gangs running the country....with, best of all, Russia buying influence and attempting to build a naval base on its shore!

Really don't get the "Cameron is widely respected around the world..." is he fuck, gave us Brexit, despite the advice from Osbourne NOT to have a referendum, cozied up to the Chinese and embedded his party in Russian money.

Having lost the vote, he then resigned (ran away) after promising us all he wouldn't.

There are few politicians i have more contempt for.

The polls up until last weekend should a distinct pattern.

https://www.markpack.org.uk/155623/voting-intention-opinion-poll-scorecard/

There was some interesting statistic-slicing on one of Phils podcasts recently. Basically there is no way to get the numbers needed anymore - even if you assume every "don't know" is a closet Tory vote.

There's also the fact that once you lose the centre ground, you end up chasing the fringes at the end of the bell curve - sacrificing 10% of your base to catch the 2% that are fair game for Reform.

The next GE has to be about minimising damage for the Tories.

The other interesting suggestion was a smaller Tory party would still retain it's overall "shape" regarding left-moderate-extreme. Which makes for some interesting horse trading.

Desperation and a bad choice. He walked away after the vote leaving others to deal with the mess. I'll never forgive him.

The other interesting suggestion was a smaller Tory party would still retain it's overall "shape" regarding left-moderate-extreme. Which makes for some interesting horse trading.

It would be really interesting to take a look at who the 150-200 remaining Tory MPs will be after the next election. Not got the time this week though.

There won't be much left of the red wall lot, but otherwise I don't know if there's any more detailed analysis anywhere else. I have a feeling Tory MPs in cities mostly have smaller than average majorities too.

He took the Conservative MEPs out of the European People's Party bloc in the European Parliament and had them sit with the swivel eyes nutbags and fascists. Trying to buy off the extremists in his own party. Vote for me - I'm not really like that...just pretending. Worked a treat in 2016.

Ted Heath was right : ' You can't compromise with the far right. Never , never , never.'

The next GE has to be about minimising damage for the Tories.

If they think they can't possibly win, then I think the aim will be to make the outcome closer than currently expected (ie Labour's number of seats is a bit lower than expected, and margins in each constituency are a bit narrower than expected) so we shall see the Tories trying to take the centre-right ground (that always used to be theirs, but since Blair it's swung).

If they've given up, then it'll be a move to harder right. Which I think is what was being attempted up to last weekend, and which has been demonstrated to be a failure.

Tory party seems incapable of learning how damaging their constant in-fighting is. The country is not captivated by the Westminster bubble. Their biggest majority in ages came when Boris basically lived up to his "back me or I'll sack you" purge, and presented the country with a united party. If they can persuade the swivel-eyed to fuck off to openly hard right parties, then they might have a future. But I really don't think their awkward squad can see what they are doing.

There is currently, no electoral home for centre-right voters. They may vote Labour, but it'll be because they're Not Tory, not because there is any real sense that Starmer or Labour are actually good enough.

In UK, it's hard to believe that US can't come up with better candidates from president. That's because party systems there and here are broken, and there isn't an easy way to fix it.

I'd like to see more people in representational roles that have come from industry, commerce or professions (other than law, which is over-represented).

I'd like to see competency and attention to detail being core standards.

Tory party seems incapable of learning how damaging their constant in-fighting is

You're right, but it's been like this for decades now. The last time they united around a leader for a lengthy period while they were in government themselves was in the 80s. The far right of the party are unable to help themselves. 2010-15 only worked because being in coalition meant headbanger wing had less influence than they do when the party are in government alone. That old pragmatic Toryism seems to have disappeared from their party DNA.

I didn’t takemuch notice of opinion polls though. There isn’t a general election until next year , traditionally it would be May but the Tories won’t call one unless they think they have a chance. There has be be one by December next year but a years a long way off and things could change.
Again, I don’t read too much into opinion polls.
If the Tories miraculously sort themselves out over next year , they may stop Labour winning.

I don’t understand why the Tories always destroy themselves though? They’re always at war with eachother.
They ousted out Thatcher, they tried to get rid of Major, they got rid of all their other PMs.

The conservatives seem to like self destruction.

It is because they ousted Thatcher - they thought they held power, without realising that they hold only the power to destroy.

And that everyone else it utterly sick of their antics.

Boris was a controversial choice of leader, but he was the only one who stood up to that destructive little cabal, and got huge majority - as right-leaners thought "well, not sure about Boris, but lets see what the party can do when it's not fighting amongst itself"

And the answer was - start up in-fighting again at the earliest opportunity.

Johnson also, either by accident or design, managed to empower that cabal by booting out so many of the moderates in 2019. He gave no thought to the longer term consequences.

Well if you did want to have a reasonable idea of the likely result of the next general election, then I'd suggest looking at opinion polls together with recent by-elections and local elections may give a significant clue.

The fact that they won't be able to answer the question "who will be Prime Minister if you win the election and how long will they serve?" is a colossal issue.
Of course, as the party of law and order, financial prudence and support for businesses and hard workers, the might just tell us that we've never had it so good.

Wonder if Sunak will resign then Braverman vs Cameron for PM. If Cameron gets it, can we have Milliband back for Labour, do a reset of all policy enacted since 2010, including Brexit, and have another stab at our wilderness years ? Try the alternative universe ?

Which Milliband would we get this time?

They’re not going to “have a chance”, that ship’s sailed. My money has been on May for months now. Sunak’s not going to risk another humiliating round of local election results.

I wonder whether they will time it to coincide with the US election?

Both UK and US security services have asked nicely if that can be avoided.

Traditionally, UK Tory governments haven't really had much time for the UKs security so that's not really a factor here.

They’ve been told not to for obvious reasons.

^The insider said: “There are huge security and market implications if two Five Eyes countries are holding elections at once. It could potentially open up two countries to cyberwarfare and electoral manipulation from hostile states and if a security threat were to arise during a campaign it would leave western countries exposed.”
A second Whitehall source said: “Far more care would have to be taken around national security and meddling from hostile countries.”^

A second Whitehall source said: “Far more care would have to be taken around national security and meddling from hostile countries.”

What ? To make sure it happens they mean.