AIBU to ask how long the NHS has left?

[StrongCoffeeAvalanche]

Genuinely now have the mindset that's it's not 'will' the NHS go under but 'when'. I'm not in the NHS though so I guess I'm asking 2 questions here....

1. YABU the NHS will survive somehow or YANBU the NHS is going to go 100%

1. If IANBU when? How much longer do you think we have?

I reckon another year at the most. It's already falling apart at the seams. I hope I'm wrong.

I don't know the answer but it can't carry on like this indefinitely can it.
I'm so worried as my family rely on the NHS so much with our medically fragile DS.

There should have been a national incident called weeks ago.

Already gone in my opinion.

Is it not already broken?.
I really dont think its sustainable in its current form. Social care needs a complete overhaul and until thats fixed then I cant see anything else improving. The NHS is a poorly run business.

It's already gone but what is most worrying is there is no provision to replace it, I've tried to go private for something recently and there is no private provision for what I need either. What exactly was the Tories plan here when they decided to drive it into the ground?

It's collapsing right now. EDs are full and overflowing. Many hospitals have declared a major incident in the last couple of days.

6 months

Agree. It’ll be a shitshow January to March. I suspect( pure speculation) there will be an announcement in spring.

this government is nearing its end game with nhs- they aren’t going to get this opportunity to dismantle it again so they aren’t going to waste the opportunity.

DF currently in A&E for 12 hours and counting following suspected stroke this morning. NHS is not fit for purpose imo. It is just falling apart at the seams, I feel for those working in it, it must feel like pushing water uphill.

There was no plan, there never is! None of them think past their 5 year term and haven't for a long, long time, that's why we're in this mess.

Terrifying
What would that mean? We'd all have to get insurance like the states?
My DS is only 8 and he's been so ill since birth. By 6 months old, we worked it out with one of the doctors that if we were American he would have had over a million dollars worth of treatment.
So upsetting to think if we'd have lived there, he would have died because there is no way we could have afforded that or insurance that would cover that amount of care.

Can people stop with these threads it's really hurtful for the staff trying to keep going through this crisis. The NHS isn't finished it's just going through one of the hardest times in its history. Hopefully once summer comes and respiratory virus die back for a few months things will improve.

Changes are going to have to be made it's a question of where. Giving the NHS more money isn't an option (if anything it needs to go to education) it's time top ups, ceiling of care and the criteria for safe discharge we're discussed on a National scale.

Difficult decisions need to be made about what level of staffing we are going to provide is it going to be PA and nurses doing 99% of the work or do we want to keep a Dr led front of house service. (HCPs that a discussion for another thread 😉)

I can see GPs moving towards a more dentist like model going forward. I can also see no essential services like prenatal classes, support groups etc being moved to the charity sector

Grumpy "I can see GPs moving towards a more dentist like model going forward"

how so, like paying for particular treatments? I have an NHS dentist but just go for check ups.

Personally I think that very soon elective operations will be cancelled as they were during covid, staff will be redeployed with a focus solely on emergency and life saving areas. I can't imagine they will then be stood back up, certainly not to the same extent. Many people will live in pain and suffer on, private healthcare will flourish though and if you can afford it I think wait lists will quieten down as it expands. Basically I do think it will carry on delivering life saving and emergency care, but everything else that contributes to a healthy society will be scrapped.

It used to be that there would always be 20% leeway in the system, ie you wouldn't often see hospitals go over 80% capacity/capability, but it could handle it for short periods if needed. Of course over the past decade or so the fact has been cut away so there is no longer a safety net or any give in the system. It runs at 100% all of the time and then just starts to crumble when things are paritcularly bad.

I find it startling that the government aren't even acknowledging this at all.

Yep. Our local one had waits of over 25 hrs in A&E the other day and more than 100 people waiting for beds so they could be admitted.

Its terrifying.

It's not sustainable.

Ageing population & impact on social care
Not enough workers, why work in a stressful job paying more tax & struggling to avoid a house when you can go to Oz or similar?

I work as a Nurse Practitioner for the NHS in an Urgent Care Response team in a major city. We take lower category 999 and 111 calls and see patients at home so ambulances can concentrate on higher cat calls and relieve the pressure on them. The past few weeks have been absolutely gruelling, to the point I just want to go off long term sick. The things people call the emergency services for is staggering but most of that problem is lack of GP appointments and walk in centres. 99% of the people I have been seeing have been for coughs / colds / flu but do not feel they have anywhere to turn. We are taking more calls than we have staff to cover and so I spend my shift lurching from one patient to the next - it is the worst I have ever seen it in my 28 year career. I had an elderly patient die a couple of weeks ago who I suspected had sepsis but had to wait over 16 hours for an ambulance, I don't know if he would have survived had he been treated sooner, I have been so upset about it.

I wonder everyday when they will say it is broken. How will they go about doing that though?

It's the national religion, the sacred cow. It's not going anywhere.

I'd rather a doctor thanks. PAs aren't under a regulatory board, their role isn't even overly clear. But what is clear is that a 2 year postgrad is not comparable to a degree in medicine and the subsequent hoops doctors have to then jump through as a junior doctor. Although nurses are also well qualified professionals, some of who have a mountain of experience, it's a different role to that of a doctor and I think the only scenario where doctors are replaced is one where they cannot be recruited so someone else is better than nothing. I say this as a nurse who is proud of my job and understands the value they bring! I just think that doctors do a role that shouldn't be replaced by something inferior just as we do.

The problem isn’t the same across the whole country. Most parts of the nhs are working really well where I live and I live in an area that has experienced population growth. You can see a gp urgently, minor injuries has very short wait times, hell you can even get an nhs dentist!
A & E and some wards have issues but mainly down to social care problems. Not sure how they will solve the social care problem in my area as even if they put the wages up significantly there just aren’t the women (because it’s mainly women) who will want to do the work. Many women still don’t work or work in family businesses, of the women left who do go out to work many have professional jobs and of there are plenty of easier jobs than caring for the remaining to choose from.

The nhs was worse before 1997 imo and I’ve had plenty of use out of it over the years!

Realistically what is going to be replaced with. Families can’t afford to pay. Frequently on MN you get people posting who have high household incomes unable to manage as fuel, energy, mortgages and food go up. Businesses won’t be able to pay for employees health care they can’t even pay the increased energy costs in many cases.

We'd all have to get insurance like the states?

There are plenty of other options as opposed to the States.
We will need to pay more tax though & the burden needs to be far more equal but that won't go down well

@ofwarren that's not how it works. He wouldn't have been left to die. Do neither of you work?

Well for all the 'NHS is falling' fetishists, the privatisation of the rail and Royal Mail have gone splendidly, so I hope you'll be happy 😇

Not at the moment. I'm a carer for him and my DH is currently on sick for mental health and has been since October.

The Tories will sell it off to the lowest bidder, it's been chronically underfunded for so long, they will cite it's being not fit for purpose as the reason. I believe the Americans will be given first refusal, they have been eyeing the NHS up for years. A few rich people will become very much richer, and we will all have to pay for private health insurance. I really hope im wrong though.