John Harris AT johnharris1969
Question here is why it has all disintegrated. 2 answers: 1)the Tory party is now unleadable & collectively mad;2)out in the real world, there is nothing to show after 12 years besides decay & harm (Thatcherism had winners). And the centrality of Brexit to the story is now clear
I have to say this is the heart of the matter.
Its not that Brexit itself that the problem. It comes down the never ending argument about what Brexit was and for control over the post brexit plan though.
The referendum was set up to make Brexit something that only existed in someone's own individual mind. There was no collective idea of what it was that a consensus formed on. We had years under May that demonstrated this - every vote was split and unable to get a majority even with a free vote with no party lines. Johnson got a huge majority but even he struggled at times to get his party to come to consensus. Much of these problems were temporarily hidden by Covid but as weve come out of that, and economic problems have mounted thats unravelling. Thats what Truss inherited. A toxic shit show.
Every once in a while I reflect on this post I made 16/06/2016 13:41
www.mumsnet.com/talk/am_i_being_unreasonable/2662474-To-wish-we-could-get-some-decent-advice-on-whether-to-vote-to-Brexit-or-Bremain?page=7
Much of it still holds up well. But take heed of the last part:
It boils down to this to me. You can't just overthrown the government - domestic or the EU - with two fingers up, unless you have a credible alternative waiting in the wings with a credible alternative to fill the void.
Where is that? Where is that really?
I just hear a loud echoing silence to that question
Could Sunak provide this? Could Hunt? Could anyone else?
There is no unity within the Conservative Party. They are still battling internally to impose their vision for the future on the UK. This won't stop even if they replace Truss. Too many factions with completely different templates for what to do next. I think I've seen that since 2016 the party has effectively persued 3 different plans. All have been doomed to fail. And there isn't many alternative plans left... And certainly not one you can easily get the party to gather around and support... Especially not now the economic storm has hit.
The public are looking for hope and opportunity when we, as a nation, keep building barriers to them at a time of a shrinking pool of resources and skills.
The row with Braverman today is fascinating. It was apparently about Truss wanting to liberalise immigration because she now feels thats one of the few ways to drive growth. Braverman was due to put in more immigration restrictions tomorrow.
Thatcher saw the EU as the only way to drive growth back in the 1980s. Little has changed. The Tories reversed from Thatcher's key policy, but didn't have a credibly, workable alternative to replace it. Certainly not one that they can agree on, at any rate. Thats why Truss has gone on so much about growth. Cos its about Thatcher's legacy and principle. Yet no one's really got the idea of where the growth comes from if we don't have closer ties with the EU. Geography is a bitch. Ukraine shows that.
Interestingly talk in the last day or so, Hunt's arrival has been framed as a 'remain coup'. Its more complex than that. We've had a party chasing fantasy and detatched from reality. Reality has reentered the room as a massive financial crisis and manifests as political instability. That only gets solved by someone able to identify problems accurately... and be able to convince the fantasists that its not about what you ideally want to do, but what you are limited to do within the confines of practicality. I've seen it tonight framed as becoming a battle between the realists and fantasists within the party... Again.
Does this latest crisis focus people on this reality? Hard to argue it does. Baker, head of the ERG, has been very vocal and very protective of Truss tonight... Mogg has also been one of the most prominent body guards to the PM tonight.
The Tories can not escape the concept of a singular idea of Brexit that never existing. Its the festering poison within the party. At the heart of Brexit was a political void which will continue to swallow and consume the party, until it 'let's go of the underlying principles of Brexit' as thats just an argument with no one able to command a singular concept of Brexit. They are doomed to forever try and define it in competition with their party colleagues.
Pay strong attention to what Labour policy for the Northern Ireland Protocol and relations with the EU going forward are. Note that they avoid the subject of Brexit, as if they can pretend it is done. Labour are keen not to be drawn on the subject. Ponder why. (Clue - look up). They need to take ownship of this question well. Instead we see repeated avoidance.
What are the UK's key problems right now? Whats driving those problems? Are we getting more or less competitive economically? Everything continuing to ignore the Brexit question or constantly trying to suggest 'Brexit at all costs' to match the demands (that never really existed) of the electorate should be challenged. No one ever did. Not pre-ref, not during May, not during Johnson, definitely not during Truss and it also doesn't appear in what Labour says...
Focus on this, not personalities and I say it a lot - political vacuums are very bad things.
No one is.