Boris has survived the vote. Anyone pleased ?

[Heynowheynows]

And do you think he can survive in the long term ..

Well even going by that parameter Johnson is the least popular cabinet member among Tory members and Starmer has had better personal ratings for months. So I wouldn’t be too confident that Johnson is the natural choice anyway.

Polling is also why the Leave result was such a shock. Polling isn’t accurate unfortunately. Never has been because of the demographics of the people who want to fill in polls. Even the GE. Only results of referendums and elections matter.

I've never been asked anything by a 'pollster' !

“Polling is also why the Leave result was such a shock. Polling isn’t accurate unfortunately.”

No, this is a Leaver myth. Polling got tighter and tighter as the vote approached until they finally said in the final week that it was too close to call. And in the end that was correct.

I am not saying that BJ is the natural best choice, although I personally like him. Just pointed out that saying that he is massively unpopular is stretching the truth a bit. He has been gaining and losing in popularity over time, but still has a decent result as a leader of a democratic nation (which almost universally tend to skew towards disapproval of their elected leaders once they are in the office and actually hands-on, it is only Putin and rulers like him who enjoy a stable 96% approval).

More polls indicated Remain than Leave.

amp.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/24/how-eu-referendum-pollsters-wrong-opinion-predict-close

I am not saying that BJ is the natural best choice, although I personally like him. Just pointed out that saying that he is massively unpopular is stretching the truth a bit.

Well it’s all relative. His personal ratings are on par with corbyn’s at their worst so… take that as you will.

I can't see how this demonstrates that BJ is "massively unpopular".

That poll is almost a fortnight old. I imagine the gap is much bigger after last night.

Who I also would not describe as massively unpopular, although I personally don't like him.

Ok, agree to disagree I suppose. We have different definition of unpopular.

Jesus, how bad does it have to get to look like massively unpopular to you?

yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/trackers/jeremy-corbyn-approval-rating

The What UK Thinks poll of polls, which looked at the average share of the vote for leave and remain across six polls at a time, shows that the pollsters were closest to the result in mid-June, when the polling average put the result at between 51% and 53% for leave.

I wanted him to go but have come to realise the longer he stays, the less electable the Tories will be at the next GE. I really dislike the serial liar but it could be a blessing in disguise.

I like this site for polls as all in one place and collated

www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/united-kingdom/

I just changed timing on Johnson’s one to a few years and it shows big increases and decreases

I assume other leaders have had similar, be interesting to compare

Below 10% positive rating, I'd say. Consistently over a couple of months, not just a one off knee jerk reaction to a piece of news.

Thing is these threads just happen in the moment.

Yesterday MN was full of threads wanting posters to email their MP’s to vote against Boris, to hope that he was booted out, to share that video that’s been doing the rounds and so on.

And now that he won the vote posters are saying they’re glad that he won because now he’s signed the tories’ death warrant. Would these same posters have been posting that they were sad he’d lost the vote if he did?

There are so many reasons why Boris needs to go. Partygate is just a catalyst, and the reality is that most people are sick of hearing about it. If the vote had happened as soon as the pictures had been released more people would have been on board with the idea that partygate was the reason. But that was 18 months ago. We need to look at all the other reasons why Boris needs to go, otherwise we run the risk of forgetting about the more serious stuff by comparison. Iyswim.

I’m not happy he won. I don’t think there’s necessarily a credible alternative, but tbh I don’t think there’s a credible leader among the lot of them.

If labour don’t get their act together Boris will rebuild trust within his government, he won’t be forced out, and unless labour start announcing some actual policies the tories will be re-elected in 2024. As much as mumsnet wants to believe that everyone wants the tories out, the 2019 landslide is fairly clear proof of the fact that’s not the case.

So even though people on the street are still annoyed about partygate, labour need to stop going on about it and start talking about what they are doing to make themselves electable.

Seeing as a lot of the conversation is about popularity and what ‘the general public’ think of Johnson: it’s worth remembering that in 2019 more people voted Labour and Lib Dem than voted Conservative. They got 43% of the vote: ‘Most people’ (the ones who voted at least) wanted someone else as PM. Obv our system doesn’t work on pure numbers - which is arguably fair enough - but the whole discourse around ‘most people like him’ just isn’t true and it never has been. ‘Enough people’ like him. ‘Voters across the country’ like him - not most people.

Would these same posters have been posting that they were sad he’d lost the vote if he did?

I would. My posting history has been consistent for some time in wanting him to stay as long as possible to inflict the maximum damage possible on his party. I said as much on the email thread when explaining why I wouldn’t be troubling my waste of oxygen MP.

On mumsnet he is hated, outside Mumsnet he seems to be well loved (in my white, affluent town).
On Mumsnet everyone is anti-Brexit, in real life the opposite. I honestly think it is an echo chamber here and in no way representative of general opinion, unfortunately.

It's as much of a mistake for BJ to rely on or target Baby Boomers as it is for him to rely on or target Waitrose Woman.

AmaryIlis
How could the birthday event be a work gathering...
How could he have thought it was OK when he was telling little girls that they couldn't have birthday parties? Have you really forgotten that, whilst he was partying, terminally ill patients were having to die alone and people weren't allowed to go to funerals of those they loved?

The legal restrictions on the 19 June 2020 were not as severe as you make out. Little girls were allowed birthday parties - albeit outside. Up to six people/children from different households could meet in a public or private place, including back gardens - going inside to use the toilet or access the garden was also allowed. One of my young nieces has a mid-June birthday - she had a birthday party with five school friends in June 2020. Close relatives and friends were legally allowed to visit dying relatives (although I appreciate that hospitals and care homes had their own rules) and up to 30 people could attend a funeral. Non-essential shops were open, as were outdoor attractions such as zoos:
www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-oxfordshire-53057199
www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-england-london-53052951

On Mumsnet everyone is anti-Brexit, in real life the opposite

Why was the referendum result so close then? I live in a similar place to you, the Tory MP has a majority of 19,000 but if everyone who voted not Tory had voted tactically in 2019 he’d have been out. It was the split vote that kept him in.

It depends where you live, I’m in a remain area and labour - as is much of London, but agree mn is skewed

Up to six people/children from different households could meet in a public or private place ... outside.

StridTheKiller your response is sort of linked to my question.. I raised it because on mumsnet there sèems to be a dislike of boris, but exept for perhaps two households( and my dh)! , the rest of the people I kmow see him as the onlt credible pm at present either cf to anyone in labour or would absolutely not vote labour anyway. Several people I know actively think he has done an amazing job especially with the vaccines.