Oh I think Russia will eventually take Ukraine. It has to. Otherwise Putin has failed. But take control? More difficult and a different thing.
Theres evidence this morning that Russian are very aware of the impending banking issue from multiple sources. A run on banks creates chaos and a crisis for Russia internally. So things are starting to impact. I think Putin's gamble was that the West wouldn't unite and were too chicken shit to take significant steps together. Not sure thats working, though how long it can be maintained is another matter. Taking over Ukraine or committing crimes against citizens will probably help to unify though. Precisely to avoid a military front.
What can Putin do with the anger that arises from it? He has to channel it to his advantage and I think thats going to be a real challenge.
I don't rule out scenes like Bosnia by any stretch of the imagination. But I also remain unconvinced that it will connect with Russians either if it happens. Particularly young Russians who don't look back at the USSR with rose tinted nostalgia.
We know that even when you 'shut down' foreign social media, it doesn't mean that people aren't accessing it. There is a risk involved in doing so, but it doesn't stop it.
Ultimately people want a future. One that inspires them and offers opportunities. The current situation contrasts with previous conflicts. There is no real 'moral cause' here even with Putin trying to fake one and there's also no tangible goal for a better future either. You can't say that you are getting more lands for you country for example, because why does Russia need it? You can stir up nationalism and anti western feelings but many will still resent losing what they've recently had and now dont.
Ukrainians speak Russian and are Orthodox Christians. Its harder to have a point of difference. Putin isn't at a point where he is at the height of domestic adulation. He's feared, but feared enough? Yes there is Russian racism and superiority over Ukrainians but being asked to suffer and fight rather than make a deal for peace?
I do note that the Ukrainian president has said they are ready for talks but not in Belarus this morning. And made appeals to Belarus to be Belarusian not Russian.
Thing is Putin has a simple problem with a population without money. They will get angry. He will be able to direct so of that at Ukrainians. But Ukraine is far away and government officials are nearby. Putin isn't universally loved. He will have to dedicate resources to managing growing anger at home.
And like us, Russians priorities are 'how do i pay my bills, how do i keep a roof over my head, how do i keep my children feed?' The oligarchs aren't going to get paid and accessing their cash will be a pain in the arse. Not undoable but difficult. Putin is going to be perhaps expecting the oligarchs to put up and shut up with that. Is that in the oligarchs interests? No nice sunny holidays, their yachts impounded? The oligarchs aren't interested in empty Russian nationalism. Most of them spent a great deal of time outside Russia for a reason. And the Oligarchs really aren't subject to the control of Russian propaganda.
I don't know that there's really an appetite for war within Russia. Putin can argue that its about protecting a way of life and try and make it into a war of independence for Russia. But that is different from his initial false flag agenda about Nazis. It puts him on the backfoot and starting from a weak position. Unlike other dictators, Putin isn't in complete control. He still has a facade of parliament and he still has others he has to rely on and trust for support to maintain his power.
Ambitious men, who may see their own opportunities here.
Putin could try military level cyber attacks but it merely opens another front. And that gives the green light for response. Likewise for military attacks. The public won't see the benefit in a military advance. He could throw a nuke, but that doesn't really benefit his domestic situation and his power if someone throws one back.
If he goes and decides he has nothing to lose, he is also risking taking all his oligarchs and generals etc with him. I remain unconvinced that he can stir up that level of fervor within his own ranks. A few years ago maybe but now? The whole war pretext was because of a growing feeling of Putins personal weakness and was supposed to counter this. I do believe they will see this as a personal miscalculation by Putin rather than a Russian one, and Russia has alternatives.
I do think thats why we will see much talk of these. And actually thats why Oligarchs won't be completely cut off. Handicapped enough but close enough still.
Key point: If you make appeals to the lowest common denominator in patronism, you tend to appeal to those who are least educated and least aware of the world - the masses. But this doesn't work if you also don't have the support of your elites. What does nationalism offer the Russian elite if Russia is isolated?
The framing here is going to be worth watching. The West and Ukraine will make a point of it being Putin's War not Russia's war. For a reason.
The media and individuals here would be wise to take note.
Even if Russia does still take Ukraine quickly, Putin has created a load of crisis for himself. They may well be exploitable, they may not.
Others may have more interest in finding a better exit strategy. Mindful that the US got bogged down in Afghanistan with no exit strategy for years and it still didn't end well, still fresh in minds. And the same went before for the Soviets.
Bottomline: Do Russians really want a war themselves that much? Pride is the thing that will keep them in one. Other alternatives and opportunities will be the thing that gives them an exit strategy.