@TokyoSushi
Not RTFT but here's my thoughts...
I'm beginning to wonder (maybe wishful thinking) that this might be over fairly quickly. I think Putin has seriously underestimated the incredible fight the Ukrainian people are putting up. Or the strength of feeling from pretty much the whole world against him. I think they will keep turning the screws with the sanctions in every possible area, and hopefully they will begin to bite. Either way he has done irreparable damage to his reputation.
I think that Putin thought that it would be a fairly simple task and now he's being proven that might not be the case, I wonder if he'll soon graciously agree to 'talks' to try to resolve the situation. Either that or he'll ratchet up the invasion to horrific levels so as not to appear beaten. I sincerely hope that it isn't the latter. 🇺🇦
I personally would not go that far. Putin HAS to have a military win, or he will be ousted. So the incentive now is to throw the kitchen sink at Ukraine. Reports this evening were detailing bigger tanks entering Ukraine. These tanks are capable of launching thermobarbaric bombs (sic) so that is ratcheting things up.
Where Putin really is losing (and this does really matter) is with the propaganda war internationally. Ukraine's President has played an absolute blinder and has created a situation where if he is killed he becomes a martyr. And that in turn could ultimately mean he loses the propaganda war back home.
The thinking goes that Putin's strategy was founded on what he observed in Afghanistan last year, with the Taliban storming through and the Ukrainians fleeing in terror and abandoning their defence so he could set up a puppet government very quickly. Instead he's looking like he's just landed himself into a scenario closer to Afghanistan 1979. The trouble with him believing in the former strategy is that favours him deliberately targeting civilians (he has form in Chechnya for this) and he did use chemical weapons in Syria. Its a theory thats gained traction and credibility during the course of the day from a number of credible and experienced sources.
Russia seems to have sustained considerably more casualties than anticipated, soliders have run out of supplies and many are conscripts who thought they were being set for training but were instead sent straight into active service. They don't have much of an incentive to fight. And that contrasts with the defenders who have been stirred up to fight for their own land. If you create heroic martyrs in this way, you inspire others.
So it begs the question of whether Putin can really turn any military victory into a political one (see Afghanistan). He has to win a propaganda war to have any meaningful victory. Is that achievable still?
And thats without considering the domestic situation and a war of attrition. Putin isn't going to fund this from his personal assets...
I think the noise today, suggests that world leaders are likely to go further with sanctions and practical support for Ukraine than anyone would have anticipated just 48 hours ago, precisely because the Ukrainians appear to be holding up better than expected. I doubt this would happen if it were all just good propaganda. These reports have to be viewed as fairly credible by EU countries and NATO countries.
What I find striking is that Russia has blocked Facebook, Twitter and YouTube. They are censoring the word 'war' in all media. Instead its a 'special operation.' This is a real sign of weakness and concern. They have had to respond to the narratives on social media which clearly pose a threat to domestic support. Think US domestic opinion during Vietnam. It also means there's much opportunity for' Russian trolls' to be countering whats playing out on social media. It means that overall their propaganda war is hampered abroad. The question is whether there will be a rally together due to feeling ganged up on, or whether it will start to trigger wider protests. Its difficult to say but effect internationally alone is significant.
In many senses its rapidly becoming a war Putin cannot win as even if he wins militarily he's now got a poison chalice on his hands.
If he does go full on to target civilians, in a 'win at any cost' drive, its going to reinforce the sense of moral responsibility - this might be necessary for EU governments dealing with refugees and soaring costs due to fuel and gas shortages. Again that doesn't help Putin.
By all accounts Putin has fallen for the classic flaw of any dictator and over estimated things and the sheer level of corruption means hes unable to see what his military strength really was. Apparently there were many 'ghost soliders' in the ranks as part of this. So troop numbers, particularly of skilled soliders was actually lower than the Generals thought. Again this makes sense. Especially with the rumours are that civilian doctors are now being conscripted too.
I dont buy into the idea that Ukraine will quickly defeat Russia now either though. Its going to get very very bloody quickly quickly and/or very very bogged down and go on for a long time.
Unless the mood back home changes. That gives me two big IFs. IF the Russian people or Oligarchs turn against him and how far will he go if things start to look bad for him; the rat in the corner. I think these are the really crucial questions for Western leaders.
Ukraine has to turn this into a Russian Vietnam extremely quickly, for its own sake. This is also something of a necessity for the West too, I feel because they have their own domestic audiences to keep happy. Hungry and cold citizens do not make happy citizens. Is this possible?
Crucially, in disabling twitter, Putin is perhaps handicapping his own counter propaganda capacity in the West. Worst still for Russia, official Russian outlets like RT are instead, getting deplatformed.
I think in this sense - which is reflective of hybrid war - the military conflict is definitely only part of the equation here.
Whether this will trigger cyberwarefare or worse - reminds to be seen. Whats happening is actually Russia is struggling to withhold information (via the internet) and western vigilante hackers look to be keeping them somewhat busy with their own cyberattacks. They seem to have managed to perhaps overplayed the threat of cyber attacks and instead pissed off some of the wrong people.
The old adage is true here - you can't hide the truth indefinitely, and if things genuinely are going badly, thats going to become very clear very quickly. Especially in a war, if its going badly. The news does filter back and it does lead to questions being raised. I personally think they will have better days ahead, and the Ukrainians are going to have some big set backs fairly soon, simply from a numbers perspective and if desparation to have some Russian progress sets in.
You don't just take whats being said at face value. You match it up with what you are seeing and what actions have been taken. NOTHING today has said Russia is in control of the situation.
So I do think the risks here are stabilising for the UK. But ramping up for Ukraine.
I think the next 24 - 48 hours will be crucial...