That New Zealand's strategy has failed

[JudesBiggestFan]

And they will have to start the long and painful process of learning to live with Covid? I spoke to my friend in NZ earlier and he was in shock at being back in lockdown. He said they really felt they'd defeated the virus and this has just come out of nowhere. I feel for him but an airborne virus...it can't be stopped. And the cost of trying is too high. Or do they still have a chance of beating the virus?

Well, it’s not looking good for them is it? They need to get their vaccine game up.

But the ‘zero Covid’ thing was folly for sure.

The point is to keep it at bay while they role out the vaccine. They will know they can't close the borders forever and will want to start travelling again at some point. It's not a failure. They will have vaccinated the majority of the vulnerable, I guess so when if inevitably takes spreads there, the impact will be less.

@Summerrain123

The point is to keep it at bay while they role out the vaccine. They will know they can't close the borders forever and will want to start travelling again at some point. It's not a failure. They will have vaccinated the majority of the vulnerable, I guess so when if inevitably takes spreads there, the impact will be less.

I don’t think this is correct. That was our policy (keep CV at bay while vacc rolled out). NZ has been all about Zero Covid. And vacc take up is pretty low. I think the population is paying a terrible price for chasing an unrealistic goal.

He said they really felt they'd defeated the virus

They haven't even started a fight wwith the virus yet, to be able to claim any sort of victory.

Why's their vaccine take up so poor

It was obvious everyone would have to be vaccinated to keep Covid low

back at the arse end of the planet

,

or the other way of looking at it is that they are front and centre, and we are back at the arse end of the planet

This is a shockingly egocentric and blinkered statement, and even more so as you seem so blithely unaware

If I were you, I would get this comment removed ASAP. Can't you see what it says about you?

@54321nought

back at the arse end of the planet

,

or the other way of looking at it is that they are front and centre, and we are back at the arse end of the planet

This is a shockingly egocentric and blinkered statement, and even more so as you seem so blithely unaware

If I were you, I would get this comment removed ASAP. Can't you see what it says about you?

Wherever you want to say NZ is, the statements about size and population are true. It’s a lot easier to keep cases low when there is so much space between people!

I agree. Jacinda Arden seems to be revered as some sort of genius leader - yet her only strategy, in a country where only 33% of adults have had their first vaccine, never mind their second, is to simply shut down again. What is the NZ government doing to improve the rollout rate?

From memory I think NZ vaccine uptake is only in the 20% bracket and there isn't enough stock to go around, despite re-assurances last year that NZ was at the front of the queue with their orders in place.

And it hasn't been a ''true'' lock down which is how people were able to take the virus from Auckland to Wellington and the stops in between, while the rest of us stayed at home.

A total balls up. :(

There are a lot of reasons that NZ kept it's case so low. And yes, geographical location and population density played a part in that. But they also had a plan of action for novel diseases, years in the making, that they made a decision to put in place in January 3rd 2020. While the vast majority of the world wasn't paying the remotest bit of attention to events in Wuhan, the New Zealand government recognised the the potential danger and acted.

They had accessed their strengths and weaknesses and planned for them long in advance. And when news came of a new virus, they not only had a plan for how to handle it, they actually had the fucking ovaries to act immediately and put it in place. We can belittle their success all we want based on the advantages they had. But all European governments should have had similar plans in place, with our weaknesses and strengths in place. And they should have paid proper attention to what was happening in Wuhan, the fucking instant the Chinese government were willing to admit there was a problem.

And we can look at NZ and say, aw look, what a failure it's been. And yes, it's unfortunate timing for them that the Delta variant has gotten in now, before they have had time to put a proper vaccine programme in place. But they have saved thousands of lives, damaged their economies less and lived really normal lives for most of the last 18 months. Go back and look at the footage of the NYE celebrations in Christchurch. Look at the crowds on the streets singing and cheering. Then have a read of that night on Mumsnet. Think of the Christmas they had and the Christmas we had.

It honestly smacks of a really petulant need to feel a bit of schadenfruede out of jealousy because they managed better than us.

@trancepants

Absolutely.

Nasty posts above.

Jacinda A. isn't revered by many unless One is a pop star or working in the entertainment industry with a degree in communications.

She is well known for picking journalists at the press conferences who have soft questions for her and avoiding those who ask the hard ones, refusing to talk to some media commentators.

No professional career experience apart from working at a fish and chip shop and politics.

She certainly didn't win herself any favours either for buddying up to the greens after the last election (had no need to either) with some of the fools on board there.

Having said that, the major opposition party is in dis arrange and need to short their stuff out. Hopefully with ACT and David Seymour growing numbers, NZ might see a new party and leader in 2 years time governing the country.

@trancepants: thanks for your reasoned approach.

Seriously, the amount of armchair epidemiologists this week is insane: most of them sitting on the other side of the world judging a country they know little about, and that is full of people feeling very anxious at the moment. We have had incredible freedom for months on end: we were last in level four lockdown in April 2020. We've had concerts, sporting events, school, a Christmas. We're back in lockdown now while we get our vaccine rates up, but with over 70% of the eligible population either booked in or already vaccinated, we will get through it quickly. Most of us are very happy with Jacinda Ardern's leadership and our country's approach. We are expecting our lockdown to be shortlived and our accelerated vaccine programme to make a real difference soon. Then, we will look to put in place our plan to open up to the world. In the meantime, it really doesn't help having people with short memories looking on with relish at our "doomed' approach, particularly as we are naturally feeling nervous right now and living in tough conditions: have some empathy.

Ki ngā tāngata whenua me ngā tauiwi ō Aotearoa, kia kaha, kia tūpato, kia noho haumaru: we'll get through this!

Yes, our strategy is going to have to change as the virus mutates and we have new challenges to deal with. We all (or most of us) realise that. And we all also knew it would rear up again at some point. It really doesn’t undermine the previous strategy and how effective that was, though. Quite apart from all the people who haven’t died of the virus here, I have lived the last year of my life pretty much normally - I don’t think many others can say that. Geographical isolation is only one part of the picture - you only have to look at the ongoing Australian shitshow to see that. I agree that vaccine rollout has been slow and perhaps some complacency played into that a bit, but it’s ramped up heaps now.

It just feels weird to constantly hear that "New Zealand" has failed, when what people are talking about is the current Labour government. As if we're all this mindless monolith, you know? I see comments on Mumsnet like "NZ has been smug" and "NZ thought x/said y" and it's so jarring.

Personally, I feel that closing the borders early and keeping us isolated from the early stages of the pandemic was the obvious right move, but the opportunity to get ahead with vaccinations, to prepare hospitals, to provide better quarantine facilities has been squandered. Of course it has, that stuff is way beyond the capabilities of our current government.

An uncontrollable outbreak was inevitable, it is here now, and Labour's knee-jerk reactions are all about making things 'mandatory. In a few short days, we have mandatory mask theatre, mandatory tracing, I have money on mandatory vaccinations and 'papers, please' to follow shortly.

Oh well. General election by early '24. In the meantime, I am making pets of the sparrows on my balcony, bastille style.

@bananice: spot on. Ngā mihi nui.

OP your friend sounds a bit uninformed.

NZ did achieve elimination with the first round, now it is dealing with the Delay variant.

It was absolutely expected. Of course it is going to slip through the border, there will always be a margin of error when humans are involved.

I live in NZ and no-one I know is at all surprised to be going through this. Shocked, yes, because we herd about the first case at 1pm and the lockdown was announced at 6pm. So it took a little adjusting. But surprised? No.

It seems to me there is a huge hunger in here is. Mumsnet and (right wing) places like the Daily Mail to declare NZs strategy a failure and take enormous glee in every difficulty it faces. It's sad that some people feel the need to be so nasty, it says a lot about them.

But it has nothing to do with the reality of life here.

I actively campaigned for Labour in the election that propelled JA to PM and she has more than delivered. They have more than delivered. She's a fantastic leader, she is tough as nails, extremely intelligent and always respectful and compassionate.

I have been so grateful to be in NZ for the pandemic, we have enjoyed normal life for most of the past 18 months and our lockdowns have been short and effective. I feel looked after.

I don't think people realise how adored JA is. Children call her Jacinda and trust her to look after them. She promised goodness and kindness. I have lived in multiple countries under multiple leaders and I have never experienced this, actual trust in the leadership.

No-one is pretending life here is perfect. For some of us, and I acknowledge my immense privilege in living in a big house in a beautiful location with fast Wi-Fi! lockdown is almost like a retreat, a health spa. I acknowledge that for many it is challenging whether physically or mentally. But there is a spirit of goodwill, of looking out for each other and of trying to do the right thing.

To come on here and observe the derison levelled at us by people who live on the other side of the world is bewildering. What is it people get out of being so vile?

None of us knows how long this pandemic will run or what is around the corner. But NZs track record is fantastic and I feel incredibly grateful to be here. It is terrible to see the chaos and pain caused by such terrible management in so many other countries.

Wrt vaccines. One million are now fully vaccinated. I can't remember offhand the stats on partial vaccination suffice to say the roll-out has ramped up during the past week.

How we compare globally? I'll attach some stats. In the meantime, let's try to be civil.

*Delta obvs

It's such a shame that they didn't vaccinate sooner. A wasted opportunity. NZ and Aus did so well to keep it out. Why they didn't jump in the vaccine I don't know.

Attachment didn't work, I'll try again

Ah, the Daalder canticle. Every day is a Sunday.

I predicted from the very beginning that New Zealand would end up here.

The thing with a hard lockdown is that the virus didn’t spread at all and no-one gained immunity. So while the rest of the world is being vaccinated, and in many instances gaining immunity through having caught the virus and gaining antibodies, the virus had a place to spread in NZ.

I know many people who live in Aus and NZ and who say that vaccination take-up is so low because people are complacent. They were essentially led to believe that they were untouchable by COVID because of how hard they had responded and how quickly they had brought the virus under control.

If vaccination take-up remains as low as it is NZ run the very real risk of COVID rampaging through it if/when they open their borders, and they cannot keep their borders closed indefinitely, one of the biggest exports from New Zealand is the tourist industry, and this is going to obliterate their economy and the industry in the longer term if they don’t open up sooner.

I don’t think it’s smug to say that things aren’t looking good for NZ. It was said all along that we wouldn’t know who truly got things right and wrong and what those were until this is all over.

But complete lockdown simply isn’t a sustainable option for any country, and the price they will have to pay for keeping the virus away until it had saturated the rest of the world is likely to be high.

@expat101

Jacinda A. isn't revered by many unless One is a pop star or working in the entertainment industry with a degree in communications.

She is well known for picking journalists at the press conferences who have soft questions for her and avoiding those who ask the hard ones, refusing to talk to some media commentators.

No professional career experience apart from working at a fish and chip shop and politics.

She certainly didn't win herself any favours either for buddying up to the greens after the last election (had no need to either) with some of the fools on board there.

Having said that, the major opposition party is in dis arrange and need to short their stuff out. Hopefully with ACT and David Seymour growing numbers, NZ might see a new party and leader in 2 years time governing the country.

Is your name Kate Hawkesby? 😂

I think they’ve done amazingly well.

Opening up to the world will be a big challenge, when they eventually decide to do that, because with a population with no natural immunity and the high vaccination breakthrough of delta variant they’d risk the health service being overwhelmed even if absolutely everyone were vaccinated. But it’s not insuperable, you just need to let the virus trickle through the population at a manageable rate with a combination of filtered borders and light touch social distancing.