That New Zealand's strategy has failed

[JudesBiggestFan]

And they will have to start the long and painful process of learning to live with Covid? I spoke to my friend in NZ earlier and he was in shock at being back in lockdown. He said they really felt they'd defeated the virus and this has just come out of nowhere. I feel for him but an airborne virus...it can't be stopped. And the cost of trying is too high. Or do they still have a chance of beating the virus?

The goal isn't forever lockdown

It may not be the goal, but it is almost certainly where you are going to end up with the current strategy.

@vegas888

I went to my local walk in centre last Thursday and the nurse told me that she’s been informed we are going in to lockdown October. Can this already of been decided, would the NHS staff already be informed? I genuinely can’t stand the thought of yet another lockdown. Didn’t Boris say there was no going back once everywhere was open again. 🥺

Nope the NHS and it’s staff aren’t all in some Big secret government plot ( I’m one of them) the nurse probably thinks covid will be bad enough to lockdown again in October once schools have been back like last year. My hospital has been pretty full all summer. A&es are relentless. We have stills very steady flow of Covid ( two wards are open)

Winter plans and projections are pretty grim for us NHS staff, we are expecting an even worse than normal winter. Winter is always shit, there’s not enough beds etc etc. This one has the potential to be something we’ve never seen.

However speak to most staff and few would want another complete lockdown cos we are human too and need to live outside of work.

Anyway back to NZ I hope the vaccinations ramp up quickly because they’ve done so well so far and prevented lots of sickness and death. Delta is a bitch of a variant.

In all honesty nobody can say who’s right or who’s wrong at this stage. As we don’t know how long this will continue for whether there will be new variants etc

Really, the only acts of unarguable stupidity were in the first 12 months or so at the beginning of the pandemic - countries like Britain not enacting social distancing, masks, etc for many months, despite the chaos on their doorsteps.

Even the largest cities are absolutely tiny and very spaced out. Nothing like Scotland, or anywhere else in the UK!!

The only city in the UK larger than Auckland is London.

Stepup you sound like an extremist. I remember all this screaming when seat belts were brought in here. Public health restrictions exist in all sorts of ways and yes, need to be agreed by the majority and not discriminatory. The UK is currently a useful reminder to other countries of what happens when you go for a particular approach - not many want to copy it.

@Cactusandmarshmallows

For NZ to reach the same number of per-capita deaths as the UK, 190,000 would need to die of C-19. I’m just not prepared to accept that scale of loss.

Sometimes I wonder if this doubling-down on NZ’s strategy actually comes from a place of deep shame that so many people in the UK value their ability to walk around without a mask on more than the lives of other people and they know deep down what that says about them

Can you explain how you arrived at that figure please? UK’s total deaths are listed on Worldometer as 130 000 and NZ has less than a tenth of our population.

@stepupandbecounted

The country is locked down tight as a drum to get rid of the latest outbreak. We can leave the house to be tested or to receive medical assistance or to shop for food in supermarkets. There are no deliveries of inessentials. There are no takeaways available. Our city centres are deserted. All schools are closed. Only truly essential people are at work. Everybody else is either working from home or baking

And you really think is sustainable in the long term?

Seriously, genuinely intrigued?

What you makes you think it is long term?

The nationwide lockdown lifts Friday. The AK one is to be reviewed. We all know that there may be more lockdowns in the pipeline but so what is the alternative? Let vulnerable people die? Excuse us for valuing human life. Honestly there are some seriously unattractive attitudes on display in this thread.

But most of the people most likely to die from covid are in the over 80s age bracket, that are indeed going to most likely die from something, it will just happen to be covid.

Currently. You are aware that mutation could occur, as it did with Spanish flu, so that a disease that initially caused death in older people could begin to kill the young? That’s why controlling it early, when the R number meant it could be controlled would have been the best plan. We still have no idea where this might go. I very much hope that vaccination will keep people safe as we open back up, but it’s definitely not the only possible scenario.

www.history.com/news/spanish-flu-second-wave-resurgence

I can’t see how anyone can look at New Zealand and not see that they have absolutely done a brilliant job of keeping their country not only safe but also functioning. I wish I could have brought my kids up there over the last 18 months as the constant lockdowns here have really affected them badly. All I can think is well done New Zealand.

I know our country is different but I still don’t see how any sane person could look at both side by side and think the U.K. is in a better position or has made better choices 😳
Yes it would be good if they’d now immunised more people but it doesn’t take away from the freedoms theyve had up to now. The way our numbers are going I can’t really see us being in a better place than New Zealand come this winter either.

Yes they will have to learn to live with it and they will have deaths once they open up but there is no way it will be as bad as here as they will be opening up from the position of having a vaccine.

Look at the long term projection.

Why can't people do this?

That is why the NZ strategy is doomed to fail, and why the Swedes had it right all along.

It is now dawning on Australia what their future looks like, and that is why there are huge protests, because some have taken a good look at reality and realised that this is going to be it, endless lockdowns, endlessly sealed away from the world and all for a virus that tends to choose the people most likely to die anyway (with a few rare exceptions) Almost all of my friends have had covid, and some have had it twice, none of us are afraid anymore. We have to learn to live with the virus. It really is as simple as that.

But the idea that life in the UK is the most normal outside of Sweden is ridiculous. Lots of us outside the UK have been living fairly normal lives ever since an initial early lockdown, and I know there are many in the UK who are not living normally now as it’s obvious the virus is still out of control and the vaccine isn’t 100% effective.

There are also people in the UK who have barely been touched by lockdown - people on very high salaries living rurally in large houses with lots of land/their own stretch of beach etc.

@stepupandbecounted

That is why the NZ strategy is doomed to fail, and why the Swedes had it right all along.

In your (very extreme) opinion.

Here in NZ we value human life over profit. Although our economy is doing fine. A death rate on the scale of Sweden's is totally unacceptable to people here.

@Icannever

I can’t see how anyone can look at New Zealand and not see that they have absolutely done a brilliant job of keeping their country not only safe but also functioning. I wish I could have brought my kids up there over the last 18 months as the constant lockdowns here have really affected them badly. All I can think is well done New Zealand. I know our country is different but I still don’t see how any sane person could look at both side by side and think the U.K. is in a better position or has made better choices 😳 Yes it would be good if they’d now immunised more people but it doesn’t take away from the freedoms theyve had up to now. The way our numbers are going I can’t really see us being in a better place than New Zealand come this winter either. Yes they will have to learn to live with it and they will have deaths once they open up but there is no way it will be as bad as here as they will be opening up from the position of having a vaccine.

This.

The nationwide lockdown lifts Friday. The AK one is to be reviewed. We all know that there may be more lockdowns in the pipeline but so what is the alternative? Let vulnerable people die? Excuse us for valuing human life. Honestly there are some seriously unattractive attitudes on display in this thread

You are presenting the problem as black or white, and not looking at the many shades of grey. You could vaccinate the elderly and the CEV and open up and start to live again? Rather than locking down for ONE case!

That one case will become ten, and you are effectively playing a game of whack a mole that is totally futile. Relegating your quality life to a series of endless lockdowns, and cycles of misery - and not ever being able to leave your country.

The vulnerable do not need to die, that is just being dramatic, but you have to become more comfortable with the idea that there might be some death, usually from those choosing not to vaccinate so that everyone else can have a normal life. It is a balance. Do you make the nation suffer indefinitely from lightening lockdowns that may never stop? Or do you vaccinate as much as possible and choose a more moderate approach?

The reason you still feel comfortable is because you are not looking at this in the longer term, you are thinking short term. The lockdown is just for now, so it is okay, I am saving lives. Not truly accepting that folllowing this strategy means you will still be the saying the same thing in 10/20 years from now. Meanwhile your own life chances are evaporating and living in fear and uncertainty is no way to live.

I wouldn't call it a failure, but I think people will begin to see that every approach taken had its pros and cons.
AUS/NZ: pros: reduced deaths in the early phase, initially shorter lockdowns albeit more intense, able to live relatively normally during 2020/2021. Cons: huge impact of closed borders, longer return to normal as population antibodies low & slower vaccine program. If I was them I would also worry that if worse strains come along they won't have any residual population immunity to slow the spread etc.
Uk/US: cons: higher deaths & longer lockdowns initially, huge mental health impact of repeated school closures etc, pros: rapid increase in population antibodies, faster return to normal.

My relative in Australia was initially happy with their approach but now after 2 years not able to visit all their UK family, in lockdown again, not yet vaccinated, they are now impressed with the UK approach

Brainwashing? Bring sold lies?

We locked down once and lived normally for over a year. At this point we'll probably get another 2 weeks to a month at home, then go back to our lives. Most people I know are pretty happy for a few days at home.

We are hardly the uneducated, easily brainwashed yokels you seem to think. We've been watching the rest of the world and appreciating how lucky we are to be Kiwis.

We will not be in lockdown forever, so we're gonna enjoy it while we can. You guys should worry less about what's going on all the way down here, we're quite content and safe. You lot start worrying about your own, they need it more. Kia kaha.

Sorry @stepupandbecounted but you really need to educate yourself before posting. One case ceased being one case within 24hrs. We are at 102 cases and modelling predicts cases will peak by end of this week. Then we can look at what next.

I know it doesn't fit with your narrative to admit that NZ is in good shape but there it is, we're doing well.

Less than 30 covid deaths in NZ and that's the way we plan to keep it.

Over 130k people have died in the UK and you're calling our strategy a failure?

Raw numbers (30 deaths) do not tell the whole story. NZ has had more cases per head of population than China. The UK is nowhere near the top of the league for deaths per head of population. Peru sadly has that honour with over 3x as many deaths per million as the UK, south america has generally been very badly hit by Covid and the stories from there are heartbreaking with horrendous corruption and lack of support for those affected and Covid denial from the Brazilian government. Of course we in the UK (and NZ) aren't that interested in south america so those deaths don't get the same attention as European or Indian deaths.

Is #nodebate normally how you deal with different opinions on an online discussion forum?

No, normally I'm very happy to engage with dissenting opinions. But the post I was replying to was nothing more than speculative condescension based on an embarrassing level of ignorance. Not an opinion so much as a fantasy dressed up as expertise.

I wouldn't speak too soon ; we may be back in lockdown this winter yet. Perhaps NZs physical isolation is a double edged sword- hard to get the virus or the vaccine?

Also you're all forgetting about long covid, no one knows how bad and how long that can be or how it will impact on populations.

Waiting until we're all vaccinated seems infinitely more preferable to exposing everyone to a disease that may have permanent consequences even if you do survive.

countries like Britain not enacting social distancing, masks, etc for many months, despite the chaos on their doorsteps

Social distancing started in the UK in March last year. Mandatory masks in shops and on public transport began as soon as the first lockdown ended. Yes, the UK has been appallingly poor but let’s stick to the facts.

Stepupandbecounted

Good post. I didnt mind the first lockdown. It was the second one that got me - because I really started to see the mental health issues affecting everyone but children especially, with constant isolations from school.

Also: the NZ "borders closed" approach isnt even real. My friend who lives in NZ visited me in uk just last month, he took the hit paying for quarantines. Allowing people to do that was always going to risk cases getting in. Borders aren't closed unless they are closed.

That one case will become ten, and you are effectively playing a game of whack a mole that is totally futile.

If that occurs, then lockdown can be accepted to have failed and can be ended. Acting early might work to shut down infection, though with Delta it’s less likely than with earlier strains.

When my country locked down early, I was quite relieved because the early days of the pandemic were very stressful. But one of the unexpected side effects was that the lockdown, when cases were very low, was highly effective and the early lockdown actually meant that it could be lifted relatively quickly, with less stringent measures put in place.

I then watched as the UK delayed until cases were massively high, and then locked down. Because cases were so high, the lockdown required was much stricter and much longer.

Criticising countries for acting early ignores the potential knock on effects further down the line. Much easier to end an overzealous lockdown than to control an out-of-control virus.

To all my fellow New Zealanders in here, Kia kaha, enjoy the break and let's hope there are a few more bloopers a la Chris Hopkins to brighten the updates 😂