That New Zealand's strategy has failed

[JudesBiggestFan]

And they will have to start the long and painful process of learning to live with Covid? I spoke to my friend in NZ earlier and he was in shock at being back in lockdown. He said they really felt they'd defeated the virus and this has just come out of nowhere. I feel for him but an airborne virus...it can't be stopped. And the cost of trying is too high. Or do they still have a chance of beating the virus?

The biggest issue to overcome in NZ is surely the psychological one. If you are told something is so terrifying as to seal the entire country away from the world, of course the over reaction of a total lockdown for ONE case is going to seem very reasonable.

To the rest of the world it looks like insanity. By allowing NZ to live in a sealed bubble to all intents and purposes, you have also given society to see the vaccine is optional, without the driving force of real terror and fear many simply will refuse to have it. Indeed a vicious cycle is produced this way one which may mean NZ never opens up again. If anyone is comfortable with this kind of dystopian function then perhaps have a coffee and have a serious think about the consequences to such an action. NZ will lose the capacity for rational thought about covid, headed by a leader who has totally lost the scientific plot - and as the years pass they will become entrenched in the view that by avoiding the cold reality that covid is here to stay and there is not much we can do apart from vaccinate our way out of it, and develop new medical advances to deal with the worst of the symptoms.

I guess eventually we can expect to see the mass riots we are now see in Oz, as it dawns on people that they are being sold a lie, and a never ending life of hard lockdowns.

@CheekyHobson

More than 1 percent of New Zealand's population received one dose of vaccine yesterday. Over 30 percent of the entire (all ages) population has received 1 dose, and 20 percent of whole population (most vulnerable groups and border workers) are fully vaccinated.

If that rate is maintained, literally every man, woman and child in the country will be fully vaccinated by Christmas. Obviously not everyone will take the vaccine but we could reasonably hope to have over 70 percent of the entire population fully vaccinated if approvals for the 5-12 year group come through in the next 2-3 months. Over 12s are already approved and can get vaccinated now.

^this.

The UK has had150k deaths from CV, its a terrible and to some extent avoidable tragedy, probably more as so many were missed in the first months of the pandemic.

Germany, the most comparable EU country to the UK, has 900 deaths per million LESS than the UK, Spain and france our also lower.

Yeah, great! And the fact that New Zealand is 1000s of miles from anywhere, back at the arse end of the planet you do realise the earth is round so there isn't an arse end?

Can I ask a question about NZ and vaccine hesitancy? In the UK we have lost so many people and suffered through three lockdowns but we still have about 10% of the adult population who are not comfortable being vaccinated.

What is the view in NZ? Is it hard to persuade people to go for it or has the international news been enough?

It seems obvious to me that the NZ strategy has been a really good one - what with the “not dead” people and the 18 months of normal life. NZ does have huge geographical advantages over the UK but they played the (admittedly really good) hand they were given brilliantly whilst the UK (who started off with a pretty rubbish hand) managed to mess it up completely. We can’t ever know what would have happened if Jacinda had been the British PM and Boris the NZ one. My opinion though is that it would have still been pretty dreadful for the UK - but not as bad as it was - and that Boris would have completely muffed it for NZ!

I'm hugely jealous of NZders and wish I was there. I think the strategy inevitably means different challenges at this stage but is by no means a failure.

You have avoided the massive death toll and as important (I think) your population has been able to access healthcare, education and be with loved ones when they were ill, dying, new parents....those key moments.

The impact on waiting lists and missed diagnosis for cancer will impact health for years here. The emotional impact of separation from relatives at funerals, last moment life will last a very long time.

The UK govt has failed

@AuntieJoyce

I think you just misunderstand the situation. It's nothing to do with a laissez-faire attitude among NZ's population. There has literally not been enough vaccine arriving in NZ for people to get vaccinated any faster than the pace at which it has happened. Eagerness to be vaccinated has always exceeded supply.

New Zealand, despite being a developed country, simply could not access enough of the global vaccine supply to commence its vaccine programme earlier. There is not enough vaccine being produced globally to supply every person in every country who wants one right now. Some countries are having to wait. NZ is one of them.

Global supply is prioritised based on two things -

1. How much cash governments are willing and able to pony up to move to the front of the queue. Places like the UK, US and Europe had both the ability and willingness to buy their way to the front of the queue. NZ was always going to be further down the list
2. Urgency to vaccinate the population based on how widespread Covid is in the population. Given that NZ has had zero Covid in the community for most of the last 20 months, this pushed down the priority status for getting the population vaccinated.
3. Where vaccine is being produced. Countries who have facilities to produce the vaccine can obviously give themselves higher priority access. NZ is not one of these countries.

Surely even if NZ have to lockdown from now to Christmas while they vaccinate, they will not have been as fucked as the UK?

For them to be as fucked as the UK they will have to:

• delay lockdown until cases and deaths are very high
• provide insufficient testing
• give mixed messages e.g. recommend shaking hands with ill people
• give contracts to cronies who provide dodgy equipemnt/services
• tell blatent lies
• unlock too soon so that they can then...

...repeat the cycle!

Borsi Johnson could perhaps give Ardern some coaching in how to manage Covid

By allowing NZ to live in a sealed bubble to all intents and purposes, you have also given society to see the vaccine is optional, without the driving force of real terror and fear many simply will refuse to have it. Indeed a vicious cycle is produced this way one which may mean NZ never opens up again.

LOL you have absolutely no idea what you are going on about. Sit down, the adults are talking now.

I don't know. The zero covid strategy may well be unsustainable, but they have an incredibly low death rate and their population has enjoyed a lot more freedom over the last 18 months than we have here in the UK. So I don't know that I would call that a failure.

Their vaccine roll out could have been much quicker though.

@rwalker a few days? We were covid free for over a year.

The plan was never eradication forever, but we can and will continue with the eradication strategy until everyone is vaccinated. As previous posters have pointed out that's about 6 more months.

Less than 30 covid deaths in NZ and that's the way we plan to keep it.

Over 130k people have died in the UK and you're calling our strategy a failure?

We've lived our lives as normal for over a year, besides basic tracking and masks only on public transport.

How many times have you lot been in and out of lockdowns? How many restrictions on your day to day lives?

And finally how many kiwis do you see on the internet critiquing the rest of the world approach without provocation? We keep our heads down, use common sense and take care of our own. Doesn't feel like a failure from here.

jasjas Germany is not an international hub, you can not compare the two when you consider the detail. The UK population versus land mass. Heathrow is one the world's biggest airports certainly the largest in all of Europe, the sheer size of London and the underground links, not to mention the fact that the UK are a nation of travellers and exporters.

Berlin is small compared to London.

When we look at covid spread, we have to look at culture, we are a free nation of non mask wears generally, population density and connection.

We were always going to be hit with covid badly, the only difference being we also bounced out of it pretty quickly with an amazing vaccine programme, and now have the closest thing to normal life in the western world (bar Sweden)

The plan was never eradication forever, but we can and will continue with the eradication strategy until everyone is vaccinated. As previous posters have pointed out that's about 6 more month

What are you going to do about all of the people that will refuse the vaccine big because from here, I can tell you already your uptake looks very low. Six months to herd immunity, and then sorry to tell you but you will need to start all over again with boosters?

You face a life of entrapment and lockdowns. The herd immunity hologram is just that, because no sooner have you reached something like herd immunity (as we did here in the UK quite a long time ago) another variant will be a long to reduce the efficacy.

So then what will NZ? Trying to outgun/outrun an airborne virus is nuts.

The plan was never eradication forever, but we can and will continue with the eradication strategy until everyone is vaccinated. As previous posters have pointed out that's about 6 more months.

How can you make a statement like this based on current data from Israel?

we are a free nation of non mask wears generally

This is such a crock of shit, we used to be a free nation of non-seat belt wearers too, it is so self-defeatingly idiotic to be proud of refusing to do something that would have meant our lockdowns could have been shorter and our death rates lower.

It is more the case that we are a stubborn nation perhaps.

@CheekyHobson I agree early on there were issues with vaccine supply but months have gone by not weeks and delta was coming. The lost time is frustrating

This thread is all altruism and other countries needing it more, not wanting to be guinea pigs. All versions of drinking the Kool Aid.

@trancepants

There are a lot of reasons that NZ kept it's case so low. And yes, geographical location and population density played a part in that. But they also had a plan of action for novel diseases, years in the making, that they made a decision to put in place in January 3rd 2020. While the vast majority of the world wasn't paying the remotest bit of attention to events in Wuhan, the New Zealand government recognised the the potential danger and acted.

They had accessed their strengths and weaknesses and planned for them long in advance. And when news came of a new virus, they not only had a plan for how to handle it, they actually had the fucking ovaries to act immediately and put it in place. We can belittle their success all we want based on the advantages they had. But all European governments should have had similar plans in place, with our weaknesses and strengths in place. And they should have paid proper attention to what was happening in Wuhan, the fucking instant the Chinese government were willing to admit there was a problem.

And we can look at NZ and say, aw look, what a failure it's been. And yes, it's unfortunate timing for them that the Delta variant has gotten in now, before they have had time to put a proper vaccine programme in place. But they have saved thousands of lives, damaged their economies less and lived really normal lives for most of the last 18 months. Go back and look at the footage of the NYE celebrations in Christchurch. Look at the crowds on the streets singing and cheering. Then have a read of that night on Mumsnet. Think of the Christmas they had and the Christmas we had.

It honestly smacks of a really petulant need to feel a bit of schadenfruede out of jealousy because they managed better than us.

I completely agree with this and was about to post something similar. By stalling the virus the way they have they have had normality while watching and learning the best way to treat those with the virus and the vaccine was developed. I also have more faith in their government then I do in the UK's for actually dealing with it.

In comparison to Asia, the west tend to not wear masks, they have been common place in Asia for years. I think you will find it has been a legal requirement to wear a seat belt for decades in the UK. It is NOT a legal requirement to wear a mask ian

I spoke to my friend in NZ earlier and he was in shock at being back in lockdown

Oddly enough, I spoke to my NZ brother - a doctor - on Saturday, and he wasn’t surprised at all and is also broadly supportive of their Government’s approach.

No one is answering the real questions though fair

1. The idea that no one anywhere in the world is going to reach herd immunity - so lockdowns in NZ will be a constant way of life, if you apply one as soon as you have one positive case

2. That the vaccination programme will be ongoing globally, with NZ never reaching the golden moment of 'enough' antibodies in the population for a return to normal life

3. A sealed off bubble with no travel allowed is NOT a normal or acceptable way to live.

4. The psychological impact on a society that are not fully grasping the cold reality of covid and the future, and therefore never challenging the blinkered thinking that they can somehow avoid it if they sit it out for long enough, they can't it is impossible.

I feel sorry for NZ, they are being sold a lie.

Why is the vaccine uptake low?

Inhabitants of a country which has lost 170,000 of their compatriots are not in a position to criticise a county who has lost 26 . Nor has NZ exported covid to other countries. No matter how you scale it up, NZ has done better. By the way, we don't all live in isolated rural hamlets with lots of sheep. We always knew that there could be breakthroughs. The country is locked down tight as a drum to get rid of the latest outbreak. We can leave the house to be tested or to receive medical assistance or to shop for food in supermarkets. There are no deliveries of inessentials. There are no takeaways available. Our city centres are deserted. All schools are closed. Only truly essential people are at work. Everybody else is either working from home or baking.

Why is the vaccine uptake low?

Because it is a choice, and one that they feel they don't have to take there is not enough compelling reasons to do so, if they can carry on as they are endlessly. Whether the young are happy to forgo their hopes, dreams, job opportunities and seeing the rest of the world is another matter.

I went to my local walk in centre last Thursday and the nurse told me that she’s been informed we are going in to lockdown October. Can this already of been decided, would the NHS staff already be informed? I genuinely can’t stand the thought of yet another lockdown. Didn’t Boris say there was no going back once everywhere was open again.
🥺

The country is locked down tight as a drum to get rid of the latest outbreak. We can leave the house to be tested or to receive medical assistance or to shop for food in supermarkets. There are no deliveries of inessentials. There are no takeaways available. Our city centres are deserted. All schools are closed. Only truly essential people are at work. Everybody else is either working from home or baking

And you really think is sustainable in the long term?

Seriously, genuinely intrigued?

Wherever you want to say NZ is, the statements about size and population are true. It’s a lot easier to keep cases low when there is so much space between people!

You could say the same about Scotland though. We have a very small population, smaller than London I believe. Very big area too, and yet we did no better than the rest of the UK. Slower start up to the vaccines too.