To think we won't see a Labour Government again for many years?

[Rosehip10]

Even discounting the changes in the ex-industrial former "red-wall" seats, no Labour leader has ever become Prime Minister without winning at least half the seats in Scotland. Even if Scotland does not vote for independence in the next few years, Labour is never going to recover there. If independence comes then it is academic anyway.

Combine that with the changes in the former Labour seats in the north (which I think will only continue) then a Government cannot be formed of London MPs, a few larger cities and some seats in university towns/cities.

I don't think Starmer is the most charismatic leader but I think any ppolitican would struggle to solve this. Very hard to try and appeal to ex-industrial seats AND young, metropolitan, middle class voters in London etc.

One of the best comments I saw yesterday was Labour trying to make traction of the conservatives being corrupt and stuffing money into places that voted for them, was people thinking "well all politicians are corrupt anyway, so we may as well vote for Boris to get some of that too!"

The unedifying circus surrounding Keir Starmer's re-shuffle is doing even more harm to the Labour Party and Keir personally, he looks weak and the divisions in the Party are even more on show.

But apart from a couple of by elections due, people wont be voting soon.

However it's a nice distraction from Tory dodgy dealings.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-57055882

or some downright Tory dishonesty.
www.swindonadvertiser.co.uk/news/19290195.jonathon-seed-confirms-pulled-crime-commissioner-race/?fbclid=IwAR0sSbWHAvO5TaevJsh7trw98ECqP6xcQuYhRwp3JtrwtQQpboAZOhuCJsk

Nothing to see here though, let's concentrate on a party which isn't in Government, which doesn't control our lives.

Corbyn on Jeremy Vine's Radio 2 show today. It's first past the posts fault. Ye Gods. Will Labour ever learn.

@Mytiredeyeshaveseenenough

Corbyn on Jeremy Vine's Radio 2 show today. It's first past the posts fault. Ye Gods. Will Labour ever learn.

Why? Corbyn is history, why on earth is Vine giving him air time?

Mind you, he has got a point about fptp, thanks to second votes this very Tory area now has a Labour mayor ...

Nothing to see here though, let's concentrate on a party which isn't in Government, which doesn't control our lives.

A strong opposition is a cornerstone of democracy, an opposition party tearing themselves apart with infighting is an opposition incapable of holding the Government to account.

But apart from a couple of by elections due, people wont be voting soon.

Keir Starmer would indeed be a miracle worker if he can stop the destruction within the party and appeal to the electorate in time for the next election.

I heard JC on bbc radio two today saying ' labour's policies were ok ' .. if so, why are they being rejected all the time?

Labour has never once confronted this issue. Labour supporters still believe that the EU referendum was lost due to pure racism. The MPs never got beyond saying that everyone needed to have a Conversation about the issues. (I'm not sure what they mean by that - sometimes I think Labour's version of a Conversation is educating the people they see as poor, illiterate commentators out of Wrongthink so they see the error of their ways. It never seems to involve addressing the problems of the people.)

Spot on. No one should underestimate the visceral resentment of being denigrated as lazy fuckers who won't get off their arses to do McJobs which won't pay mortgages, by people crowing about how much cheaper it is to hire a plumber or builder now, while boasting about how much nicer and more progressive they are than the racists who want you to pay them a decent rate for fixing your loo.

As for me, as long as Labour fail to recognise what a woman is, and continue to sign pledges branding women's rights organisations as hate groups, I will (very, very reluctantly) vote Tory. Can't say I blame you. I don't want to join you, but on this issue, I would go over to the dark side.

@the80sweregreat

I heard JC on bbc radio two today saying ' labour's policies were ok ' .. if so, why are they being rejected all the time?

They’re not. The Tories have adopted most of them in the last year!

The MN obsession with "protecting women from trans women" is not shared by general populace ... PP make me think this thread is veering into useless for understanding general populace political thinking.

Brexit seems to be the big divide that makes everything else happen in recent voting trends. Maybe there is something deeper than that that I can understand.

The MN obsession with "protecting women from trans women" is not shared by general populace

I agree with this. However I think that the more general focus on woke topics and the less than stellar record on women’s opportunities don’t do them any favours either. It’s a whole multitude of things.

Corbyn is history, why on earth is Vine giving him air time?

Because it'll please the hard left / SJWs?

Plenty of 'em to be found at the BBC, so it's only natural for them to interview their totems ...

Spot on. No one should underestimate the visceral resentment of being denigrated as lazy fuckers who won't get off their arses to do McJobs which won't pay mortgages, by people crowing about how much cheaper it is to hire a plumber or builder now, while boasting about how much nicer and more progressive they are than the racists who want you to pay them a decent rate for fixing your loo.

Spot on yourself.

People assume certain groups vote certain ways

1 The rich vote Tory but they account for less than 1% of population

1. Higher rate taxpayers ie over 50K per year ( this is still only 15% including the rich) and not all on over 50K vote Tory
2. Farmers again less than 1%
3. Business owners especially large and medium
4. Some small business owners ( less than 25 employess)
5. Lawyers accountants some doctors dentists financial service workers, some of the clergy

all of the above are not anywhere close to even 20% of population

Traditional labour voters

1. Those below poverty line largely reliant on benefits
2. Those involved in heavy industry, mining, construction and factory workers and their families
3. Ethnic minorities
4. lower level of paid workers in public or private sector
5. some teachers nurses care workers etc
6. Students

I think groups 1, 6 largely still vote labour and probably 5 but they are losing votes from groups 2-4

1. many manual and tradespeople in North are actually doing OK and are happy with status quo thye earn enough to buy a house and car as prices lower you can actually buy a 2-3 bed terrace for around 100K so a household income from 1 or 2 people of 30K is enough especially if family is close by to provide childcare
2. on average BAME communities are more religious and generally more socially conservative than population as a whole so TWAW and more liberal views will not win votes; family and tradition are important so some WOKE stuff will actually put them off, ( this is also why large sections of BAME community do not support BLM as an organisation) they also see BAME people in high offices of state so maybe don't feel that racism is so much a government problem as individuals on the street neighbourhood problem
3. this will vary but workers in private sector may well have been pleasantly surprised re furlough support and so are not as anti-government as might have been expected, lower paid essential workers may have felt not rewarded enough for carrying on working for NMW in pandemic so more likely to stick with labour

We thought that about the Tories for 10 years too. Scotland is a red herring and a myth that persists, Labour would have still won every election it did without them.

"Got a degree of dubious quality and can’t afford a house because you spent 10 years in your 20s drifting, supported financially and emotionally by your parents? Blame the government, plus add in some nice self righteous nonsense about minorities so you can wring your hands and vote Labour." And to think people like this accuse LABOUR of sneering? Nothing like writing off whole groups of people and pretending the increasing income to house price ratio is all their fault for doing the degrees they were told at school would help them get a better job.

"At no point did they ever acknowledge the very real issue that many people had seen their wages driven down by immigration and that it was no longer possible to support a family on the salary they were now able to command." This is absolutely some of it and I think we (Labour, although I was far too young to vote) completely messed up on it in the early 2000s.

At no point did they ever acknowledge the very real issue that many people had seen their wages driven down by immigration

But in most cases it's not. Places like Hartlepool have very little immigration. Whatever did drive their wages down wasn't that. It would be good to look closely at what wage rates have been like over the decades, see if they have gone down in relative terms and look for the real reasons why. At a guess, I would imagine that it's the stable jobs in heavy industry which have gone - which were tough but paid relatively well and were secure.

Scotland is a red herring and a myth that persists, Labour would have still won every election it did without them.

Scottish Labour seats are certainly a red herring although Scottish Tory seats did help prop up May's Government.

Scotland itself and the issue of Independence is by no means a red herring and it's one which so far has got Johnson flummoxed. He's making noises about the Union, but the Scots have seen these promises before.

@Peregrina

At no point did they ever acknowledge the very real issue that many people had seen their wages driven down by immigration

But in most cases it's not. Places like Hartlepool have very little immigration. Whatever did drive their wages down wasn't that. It would be good to look closely at what wage rates have been like over the decades, see if they have gone down in relative terms and look for the real reasons why. At a guess, I would imagine that it's the stable jobs in heavy industry which have gone - which were tough but paid relatively well and were secure.

Exactly. Nearby Sunderland also voted overwhelmingly Leave, despite Nissan who were the main employer there telling them explicitly it would lead to job losses. There are barely any immigrants in Sunderland.

Hartlepool may have little immigration but the idea that this will continue,may appeal to some.

I doubt we'll see a labour government for a while. Its sad in some respects as I believe the labour party has the largest actual membership of the various political parties. Even with a large membership it doesn't really reflect its voting base, many of the younger members are too trendy and (sorry feminists here as the female members are equally to blame) many of them don't come across as nice people.
Sadly most people vote based on what's in the media and labour don't do well there. Labour could put up the Archangel Gabriel as a candidate and he'd still be portrayed as a villain.
At the moment BJ seems to be lining his pockets and those of his friends and everyone just lets him get on with it. I suspect he'll continue to unless there's a leadership challenge in the conservative party.

The MN obsession with "protecting women from trans women" is not shared by general populace ... PP make me think this thread is veering into useless for understanding general populace political thinking.

Except that's not what it is is it, which you well know and are mischaracterising, a standard habit of people who support gender ideology. It's more an obsession with free speech, the right to name reality, the right not to be sacked for not believing a berserk ideology and a real dislike of woke misogynists who have seen an opening to vent their visceral misogyny on women while keeping their woke credentials. Momentum is full of them.

In a way I think it's unfair; all the main parties pay lipservice to the trans ideology. But Labour is more associated with the statue and pronoun obsessed shenanigans because it insists on producing silly letters and tweeting about it and expelling women for not complying with it while the tories keep their heads down and let Labour take the flak. Labour's her majesty's opposition, which is why their embrace of the craziness gets more attention than that of any other party. The media have done a brilliant job of characterising the party as left wing loons from about the sixties - each generation gives us a new hate figure and that historical image is very, very resonant in the general population. The new generation of loons plays right into it. Unfair perhaps, but something any Labour strategist needs to constantly combat.

@EdgeOfACoin

I just to follow up on some of the points made by people about the impact of Eastern Europeans on the local job market.

I am not a northerner; I am have a white-collar job in London. I have no dog in this race.

Pre-referendum, however, remember watching interviews and reading comments from people who had worked for years in industries such as construction. Before the EU expansion, although these jobs weren't fantastically paid, they did offer above minimum wage and it was sufficient for a working man (and let's face it, they tended to be men) to own a house and support a family. Once the borders opened, workers started coming from other parts of the EU, primarily from lower-paid eastern areas such as Poland.

These workers were bright, hardworking and they tended to be younger than the local workers. Without families to support, they were able to live in house shares to save money. Because they were used to a lower wage in their home countries and had lower outgoings, the local employers found that they could pay the newcomers less money. This depressed local wages. The older locals found that their wages were no longer sufficient to support their families and own a home etc.

I saw Labour MPs asked time and again about this. They were never, ever able to face the problem. They would say it was important to ensure that everyone was paid a minimum wage and not be exploited (ignoring the fact that the long-time local workers used to earn above the minimum wage). They would bang on about the need to have a Conversation about the issues - but these Conversations would never lead anywhere. They would trot out the line that immigrants did the jobs that local workers didn't want to do (maybe in some cases, but not in these instances). They would implore people not to be racist.

At no point did they ever acknowledge the very real issue that many people had seen their wages driven down by immigration and that it was no longer possible to support a family on the salary they were now able to command.

Farage came along and made the point that the minimum wage was now a maximum wage for many jobs.

Even I could see that Farage was acknowledging a reality that the Labour Party wouldn't see.

Labour has never once confronted this issue. Labour supporters still believe that the EU referendum was lost due to pure racism. The MPs never got beyond saying that everyone needed to have a Conversation about the issues. (I'm not sure what they mean by that - sometimes I think Labour's version of a Conversation is educating the people they see as poor, illiterate commentators out of Wrongthink so they see the error of their ways. It never seems to involve addressing the problems of the people.)

As for me, as long as Labour fail to recognise what a woman is, and continue to sign pledges branding women's rights organisations as hate groups, I will (very, very reluctantly) vote Tory.

This is exactly the problem.

Just saw mp labour tracey baben has become metro mayor for West Yorkshire which means she has step down as mp so another bi election for labour to fight.
She used be actress and was tricia on coronation Street.
New shadow chancellor is Rachel reeves.
No idea who health and education is

Labour haemorrhaged good experienced people when Corbyn took control. There is a certain type of Momentum influence on new candidates. Makes building a party nor heavily influenced by that wing tricky. A lot of the experienced old guard are missing. It's not a good combination.

When people are scared of what lies ahead, traditional the Conservative Party do well.
Labour should have got in but ED stabbed David in the back and meaning Labour jumped too soon, scared the voters and lost.
Brexit being promised also caused a curve ball .
Corbyn was further down the road and made people poop their pants.
Boris will be in if things are still rocky, as the scare factor is still around.
If Labour play a blinder and support and help improve things , Then they could sneak in.
Mind you if you think the Country is broke now, wait till Labour sell the Crown Jewels and get kicked out again.