To think we won't see a Labour Government again for many years?

[Rosehip10]

Even discounting the changes in the ex-industrial former "red-wall" seats, no Labour leader has ever become Prime Minister without winning at least half the seats in Scotland. Even if Scotland does not vote for independence in the next few years, Labour is never going to recover there. If independence comes then it is academic anyway.

Combine that with the changes in the former Labour seats in the north (which I think will only continue) then a Government cannot be formed of London MPs, a few larger cities and some seats in university towns/cities.

I don't think Starmer is the most charismatic leader but I think any ppolitican would struggle to solve this. Very hard to try and appeal to ex-industrial seats AND young, metropolitan, middle class voters in London etc.

One of the best comments I saw yesterday was Labour trying to make traction of the conservatives being corrupt and stuffing money into places that voted for them, was people thinking "well all politicians are corrupt anyway, so we may as well vote for Boris to get some of that too!"

@DazzlePaintedBattlePants

Cambridgeshire resident here - Labour were completely unprepared to win the mayors race. I doubt anyone here could name a Labour policy but it’s seen as the “right” thing to do among the well educated Cambridgeshire IT/higher tech workforces. It was a good example of how PR works but I remain to be convinced that the mayoral candidate has the experience to do a good job. Interestingly, the Conservative candidate was a milkman, the Labour candidate a consultant paediatrician…

Politics here is increasingly tribal in the manner of pits and mining towns. No one at my work would dare to admit to voting Conservative!

Cambridgeshire resident too. What did the previous mayor achieve? I have absolutely no idea whether or not he did a good job, he was invisible.

It is an interesting example of how PR works, it’s certainly the only way a Labour candidate could ever achieve success in Cambs with most of the county so blue.

Since we are talking of University cities, the Tories did not do well in Oxfordshire County Council, losing 9 or 10 seats (one is under dispute and will need to go to an electoral court) with LibDems gaining 8 and Labour gaining 5 or 6 (the disputed seat.)

Technically it was a hung council last time with one seat short but the 'Independents' threw their lot in with the Tories, so it wasn't in practice. Now it is well and truly a hung council.

So in Oxfordshire at least talk of the Labour and LibDem demise is premature.

@NewYearNewTwatName that's interesting. Thanks for that. I only went off what I've seen on the tv.

The core Labour voters now are students. It used to be dockers, miners etc, but old industry is gone.

If you're stuck on a zero hour contract/minimum wage job you're as likely to vote Tory now as Labour. If you've graduated Uni and got a good post-grad job, you're more likely to vote Labour than Tory.

Old class lines are obsolete.

@tilder

I completely agree that left/right politics is divisive. Part of why I would rather be middle ground. Part of why American politics is so divided. It's also what we currently have.

As for Keir Starmer, I don't know what he stands for either. With his background I would hope he is intelligent, decent and fair. I hope he is trying to unite the party and remove the stranglehold exerted by a small number of pretty left wing individuals.

I think attacking the government at every turn in a global pandemic would have been a bad decision. I will be very interested to see how he handles it from now.

A weak opposition is a terrible thing in politics, regardless of which side you support.

I agree with all this

Marvin rees Labour won 2nd term for bristol mayor and he has 24 Labour councillors.
To vote anything through they only need 1/3.
The green won 24 seats but Marvin has a vote so Labour has 25votes and will do exactly what they want waste millions of pounds on Bristol energy a underground that will never happen and a concert hall that was made to change name.
They only care about equality of race and trans not women or special needs.
I voted tactically greens and lib dems greens made huge gains.
Conservative came 3rd Bristol mayor surprised me.

I'm politically homeless In my old area I voted Labour councillors as could see what good he did.
My Labour councillors new area dire.
My old tory mp useless
My new Labour mp equally useless and non present.
Labour also won metro South west mayor from Conservative but last candidates was awful almost invisible.

Last few general elections voted all 3 parties.

I oddly liked Theresa may she got given so much crap but she had sense duty and obligation whilst Boris moans hes poor and not paid enough.
I can see why people voted for Boris hes quite charismatic funny at times.
I don't love him but don't hate him either I despise some if of useless cabinet members.

Corbyn I liked him felt he was honest down to earth with principles dident agree all his policies.
Loathed Blair and brown.
David Cameron huge dissapointment.
Actually liked nick clegg shame liv dems in oblivion.
Liked lib dem tory coalition.
Seen few interviews last election about Labour losing some areas.
They said things like my area been shit so long what did we have to lose we keep voting Labour and get no change.
I think brexit was massive issue.
So a pro remained leader was a mistake.
He was shadow brexit minister
He dident want to abide by results of referendum.

I don't like kier hes boring and I don't trust him.
Couldn't name any of their policies.
I doubt he would managed covid any better to be honest.
In fact he wanted us to buy vaccines with Europe.
Hes done nothing make schools safer or support teaching unions when they wanted to strike or get some priority for vaccines.
His wife's nhs so his wife and his family were alright.
Totally against Kate bingham who was responsible for vaccine procurement and seems to have secured a wide range of vaccines and increased jobs in the UK.
He strikes me very London metro elite.
Disliked Emily Thornbury too.
Did like Lisa nandy initially but she's been useless too.
I don't like Angela raynor but kier making her scapegoat I don't agree with.
So much taking full responsibility.

The issue is the last year tory economic policy has almost become socialist.
Also the vaccines and thate what matters people right now

Keeping jobs
Getting some income
Not getting ill or dying with covid.

All Labour do is doom monger that uk will go to shit they so pessimistic.
We could increase jobs in science and pharmaceuticals.
I hope Boris keeps to his word about levelling up I really do.

Cant think many Labour mps I do like.
Theres the lady who's shadow leader of the commons always squaring off against reece mogg I like her.
I'm not sure jess Phillips is natural leader shes seems nice.
Like yesterday yvette Cooper dislike her husband.
Shame she made his career more important than hers.
Wasn't keen on Rebecca but respected her standing up teachers and think she was sacked was harsh.
Liked Caroline flint but she lost her seat.
Used like dianne abbot but she changed so much.
Struggling think any others well there's the 2 sisters one went for party leader.
I like any Burnham always have.

With regards covid other countries handled it equally as bad as we havee so thats far from unique to Boris and the Conservatives.
If we come out covid in economic recovery and they invest and do levelling up they will easily win another 2 or 3 elections.
Be interesting see if he does call early election.
Brown called it too late.
May shouldn't have called it but wanted a political mandate.
So glad see back of brexit.
I voted leave.

Interesting thread as see so much tory hatred on mumsnet so good see balanced debate.

The core Labour voters now are students.

So you say. Labour still did well in Oxford City and County and looking at the wards that the votes came from they were by no means all the student areas.

I don't hate all things Tory. The current bunch of overly priveleged, self serving, crony supporting misogynists? Not so keen.

I like fiscal responsibility. I like linking rights to responsibilities. I like individual freedom.

I also like social responsibility. The NHS. State education and state support. Current Tories tend not to.

I might have voted for John Major. With 20 20 hindsight. Not Boris, May or the disastor that was Cameron.

3As Bird I don't like kier hes boring and I don't trust him.

The issue is the last year tory economic policy has almost become socialist.

I agree with a lot of what you say, and these comments stand out.

There was a gap to be filled during the lockdowns to make political capital on standing up for human rights (on which Keir is an expert lawyer) but he didn't take that opportunity, too afraid of saying the wrong thing.

So Boris is seen as both standing up for freedom and saving the nation from even more excess deaths due to vaccine success.

Re trust on Keir Starmer, I don’t think he’s unelectable. He does give Theresa May vibes as solid, serious etc. But I’ve been musing that trust is low in the labour party regardless of the leader as many voters could be suspicious he’s a Trojan horse. After all we know labour is this broad church with momentum still heavily involved and some staunch hard left wingers, so people might fear voting labour led by Keir because he could be disposed of and hard left leader be installed.
Ultimately labour are in a gordian knot. They need to go centre to win more votes but the members will not vote for this as they have a union and momentum base. But go left wing as the members would like makes them less electable.

Rumblings on twitter suggest that Rayner supporters briefed the press about her sacking ahead of KS announcing his reshuffle leading to all these ugly headlines and he was furious. Also that Peter Mandelson is advising KS to isolate the left of the party....

I can't help admire the way that the Momentum took over the Labour Party, it was a brilliant move. Initially they did a great job promoting Corbyn, until the mask started to slip with policies that revealed their Marxist origins.

It alienated a huge percentage of labour voters. Labour still don't accept the direction that have taken is fundamentally unpopular. It was extraordinary watching Dianne Abbott saying their failings this week are because they need to adopt more of Corbyn's "popular" policies.

They prefer to blame Brexit / vaccine bounce / Right wing media / our message isn't getting through, etc

They will remain a zombie opposition, until momentum are brave enough to start their own party, and let Labour find their own path.

DB I agree with your re Momentum. Crept in and taken over. I am not sure they want to win though. They just want to be a Protest Party. Means they just don’t have to actually deliver anything.

@CirclesWithinCircles

3As Bird I don't like kier hes boring and I don't trust him.

The issue is the last year tory economic policy has almost become socialist.

I agree with a lot of what you say, and these comments stand out.

There was a gap to be filled during the lockdowns to make political capital on standing up for human rights (on which Keir is an expert lawyer) but he didn't take that opportunity, too afraid of saying the wrong thing.

So Boris is seen as both standing up for freedom and saving the nation from even more excess deaths due to vaccine success.

I don't know what humble background keir came from and I don't care . Its how hes perceived now and his record as leader is what should matter. Fed up of class politics this mp is too posh and this mp is too common. I perceive sir kier starmer as very affluent middle class who lives in London and has string remain views and said she awful things after the last referendum. I think we all must recall how stuck the house of commons were as may have no majority and politics got nasty it felt like brexit would never happen and many of the public were feeling sick of it and very angry. Its why farage stepped down in many areas he wanted brexit done.

Boris messed up lockdowns but vaccines saved him and in time I expect other eu countries sadly have broadly the same deaths.

I don't know if Boris will run again or would accept his place.
Boris is a strategist and he played the long game.
I also do think he's a libertarian and gets some shit from very right wing tories.
He seems play both sides.
I don't judge all tories the same as and same with Labour.
Kier is no strategist if he personally chose to put a ardent and public remainer in a leave seat bi election.
Hartlepool have my sympathy having put up with mandelson all these years.
I have say watching speech of the winner Conservative candidate she came across very down to earth and humble was the word was delight to watch.
Its shame so much focus on 1 mp seat when really it was all about local elections.
Rather than celebrate thier wins Labour focused on their losses overshadowing the parts of Labour Party that were successful.
He could quietly reshuffled but no he has to sack her.
I don't like Angela at all I don't care about her past im judging on her and how she behaves now shouting scum across commons not a high point but bu election loss not convinced her cross to bare.
I like johnathon Ashford he comes across well.

The lovely shadow leader house of commons I searched up Valerie vaz but kiers just replaced her with career and Bristol mp thangham debonaire cool name granted but she hasent impressed me much when seen her on the news.
Valerie seems so calm and mature and enjoyed her banter with mogg was always cordial where as Angela was permanently angry woman.
Kier just seems bit robotic lacking any emotion or any strong ideas.

Wish Boris would have reshuffle and get rid of Robert, gavin and matt inexperienced little boys who are hopless liars and seem accepted dodgy bribes.

Not sure about rishi sunack.
Don't know why people hate raab and Patel so much.
I honestly think they been quite good and really admired Patel talking about her experience of racism.
I think goves lining himself up to be next leader.

I just to follow up on some of the points made by people about the impact of Eastern Europeans on the local job market.

I am not a northerner; I am have a white-collar job in London. I have no dog in this race.

Pre-referendum, however, remember watching interviews and reading comments from people who had worked for years in industries such as construction. Before the EU expansion, although these jobs weren't fantastically paid, they did offer above minimum wage and it was sufficient for a working man (and let's face it, they tended to be men) to own a house and support a family. Once the borders opened, workers started coming from other parts of the EU, primarily from lower-paid eastern areas such as Poland.

These workers were bright, hardworking and they tended to be younger than the local workers. Without families to support, they were able to live in house shares to save money. Because they were used to a lower wage in their home countries and had lower outgoings, the local employers found that they could pay the newcomers less money. This depressed local wages. The older locals found that their wages were no longer sufficient to support their families and own a home etc.

I saw Labour MPs asked time and again about this. They were never, ever able to face the problem. They would say it was important to ensure that everyone was paid a minimum wage and not be exploited (ignoring the fact that the long-time local workers used to earn above the minimum wage). They would bang on about the need to have a Conversation about the issues - but these Conversations would never lead anywhere. They would trot out the line that immigrants did the jobs that local workers didn't want to do (maybe in some cases, but not in these instances). They would implore people not to be racist.

At no point did they ever acknowledge the very real issue that many people had seen their wages driven down by immigration and that it was no longer possible to support a family on the salary they were now able to command.

Farage came along and made the point that the minimum wage was now a maximum wage for many jobs.

Even I could see that Farage was acknowledging a reality that the Labour Party wouldn't see.

Labour has never once confronted this issue. Labour supporters still believe that the EU referendum was lost due to pure racism. The MPs never got beyond saying that everyone needed to have a Conversation about the issues. (I'm not sure what they mean by that - sometimes I think Labour's version of a Conversation is educating the people they see as poor, illiterate commentators out of Wrongthink so they see the error of their ways. It never seems to involve addressing the problems of the people.)

As for me, as long as Labour fail to recognise what a woman is, and continue to sign pledges branding women's rights organisations as hate groups, I will (very, very reluctantly) vote Tory.

Don't know why people hate raab and Patel so much.
I honestly think they been quite good and really admired Patel talking about her experience of racism.

For many left-wingers, Patel is the 'wrong' kind of Asian woman. She holds views that (according to their worldview) an Asian woman shouldn't hold. That strikes me as rather racist and sexist, but what do I know?

I came across a Labour supporter on Twitter insinuating that anyone who disliked Sadiq Khan as Mayor of London was probably racist. This completely overlooks the fact that (a) a person voting against Sadiq Khan probably voted for Shaun Bailey instead and (b) Khan managed to lose Brent and Harrow in the mayoral elections. Brent and Harrow! Two of the areas with the highest Asian population in London!

Honestly, Labour need to do some serious introspection. I hope some party members are reading this thread and actually take on board what people are saying.

Dismissing anyone who doesn't vote for them as racist and selfish isn't the way forward.

@EdgeOfACoin

Don't know why people hate raab and Patel so much. I honestly think they been quite good and really admired Patel talking about her experience of racism.

For many left-wingers, Patel is the 'wrong' kind of Asian woman. She holds views that (according to their worldview) an Asian woman shouldn't hold. That strikes me as rather racist and sexist, but what do I know?

I came across a Labour supporter on Twitter insinuating that anyone who disliked Sadiq Khan as Mayor of London was probably racist. This completely overlooks the fact that (a) a person voting against Sadiq Khan probably voted for Shaun Bailey instead and (b) Khan managed to lose Brent and Harrow in the mayoral elections. Brent and Harrow! Two of the areas with the highest Asian population in London!

Honestly, Labour need to do some serious introspection. I hope some party members are reading this thread and actually take on board what people are saying.

Dismissing anyone who doesn't vote for them as racist and selfish isn't the way forward.

This is what I don't get

Shes Asian and shes a woman and Labour still loathe her.
Home Secretary i imagine is a tough job.
They overook a lot of voters want more restrictions on immigration
I have to say I feel conservatives actually is less sexist.
They had 2 female leaders
2 female home Secretary
The cabinet could do with more women.

Why can't they separate patel as person from her job role and policies.
I just don't believe shes a awful person like they make out.
The media don't seem like her either.
Sometimes it's not about how you are its how you perceived.

May has done so excellent speeches and questions in house common and really tried to hold Boris to account.
Rather than run off like Cameron shes stuck around despite the humiliation she received and I feel as a mp she seems very good maybe less good as leader .
Dominic raab stayed calm when boris was in hospital.
He also has been very diplomatic with the eu hes not caused massive dramas hes quite understated and quiet and doesn't seem hog the lime light or argue .

Also wonder when whole black lives matter thing blew up they accused a Asian of being racist.
Did the Asians not support the blm movement apart from kahn.

The Tories haven't bought into the nonsense that a person with a penis is a woman because he says so, which is true and all the other parties have. Leaving those of us who fought hard for women's advancement wondering where we go to politically. They seem to be just as misogynistic but they hide it better. The little woman ideally needs to find a rich husband to be acceptable - as both Thatcher and May's husbands were.

But I too think that May got a shit deal from her party, and didn't run away like Cameron, or remember, like Johnson did when the Referendum result was first announced. He didn't bother to step up then.

Patel is an advocate for capital punishment, she’s so far right she’s bordering on fascist and she’s a proven bully, that’s why people hate and fear her. You can’t separate the person from their job in politics, the personal is the political.

It seems that Starmer is taking advice from Mandelson now so we might see electability return. It’s pretty obvious that a hard hitting member of the team that masterminded three election victories will guide the party along the right path.

It seems that Starmer is taking advice from Mandelson now so we might see electability return. It’s pretty obvious that a hard hitting member of the team that masterminded three election victories will guide the party along the right path

If so that’s good. He needs to surround himself with people like this as his own party is woeful.

which is true that it should say, not that penis havers are women if they feel like it.

@EdgeOfACoin

Don't know why people hate raab and Patel so much. I honestly think they been quite good and really admired Patel talking about her experience of racism.

For many left-wingers, Patel is the 'wrong' kind of Asian woman. She holds views that (according to their worldview) an Asian woman shouldn't hold. That strikes me as rather racist and sexist, but what do I know?

I came across a Labour supporter on Twitter insinuating that anyone who disliked Sadiq Khan as Mayor of London was probably racist. This completely overlooks the fact that (a) a person voting against Sadiq Khan probably voted for Shaun Bailey instead and (b) Khan managed to lose Brent and Harrow in the mayoral elections. Brent and Harrow! Two of the areas with the highest Asian population in London!

Honestly, Labour need to do some serious introspection. I hope some party members are reading this thread and actually take on board what people are saying.

Dismissing anyone who doesn't vote for them as racist and selfish isn't the way forward.

You would think that it would be fairly easy for Labour, who practically invented the spin doctor, to gauge public feeling and make use of all the free reasoning for their current uneiectability on sites like this.

But not so far! I think mandellsohn will have his work cut out. The party seems too much in a group of a small number of people who run it for their own gratification, so all that's coming out of the change of leadership is a rather vague set of ever changing policies designed to appeal to everyone by omission.

That will be hard to get away from. What Labour need to do is to disassociate themselves from the hard line communist element, whom voters in their traditional heartlands have complete distrust for. It's too easy for voters to associate Labour with failed commun8stvsyates and, closer to home, self aggrandising union leaders who run certain industries as their own personal fiefdom and live it up at memers' expense, preventing non cronies from getting jobs.

Momentum have ruined Labour, but they don't even care, because its more about them pretending to be proper politicians and ideology than actually getting elected.

As an aside, does anyone know if the online debate on other countries involves such awful, insulting comments about politucians and other voters' choices? It's awful to read, and I've lived abroad and haven't encountered it before, people seem to treat each other with a bit more respect, but I might just have missed it.

It seems that Starmer is taking advice from Mandelson now so we might see electability return. It’s pretty obvious that a hard hitting member of the team that masterminded three election victories will guide the party along the right path

If so that’s good. He needs to surround himself with people like this as his own party is woeful.

Isn't Mandelson associated to A Watson the Tax dodger who called people on Twitter Bigoted and treated a journalist as his secretary? Didn't he sign a letter promoting removing safeguarding?

Mandelson isn’t being asked for advice on morality. He’s advising on winning elections, for which there’s nobody better qualified. Who the fuck’s A Watson?

@EdgeOfACoin

Don't know why people hate raab and Patel so much. I honestly think they been quite good and really admired Patel talking about her experience of racism.

For many left-wingers, Patel is the 'wrong' kind of Asian woman. She holds views that (according to their worldview) an Asian woman shouldn't hold. That strikes me as rather racist and sexist, but what do I know?

I came across a Labour supporter on Twitter insinuating that anyone who disliked Sadiq Khan as Mayor of London was probably racist. This completely overlooks the fact that (a) a person voting against Sadiq Khan probably voted for Shaun Bailey instead and (b) Khan managed to lose Brent and Harrow in the mayoral elections. Brent and Harrow! Two of the areas with the highest Asian population in London!

Honestly, Labour need to do some serious introspection. I hope some party members are reading this thread and actually take on board what people are saying.

Dismissing anyone who doesn't vote for them as racist and selfish isn't the way forward.

Pritti Patel is the most racist of the government, although they are all pretty bad. Rather than provide accomodation she'd rather criminalise a whole race with new laws. Ethnic cleansing through policy.

Who the fuck’s A Watson?

Who the f indeed!