To think this will largely be over in two months?!

[ChristmasIvy]

I’m home schooling at the moment and surprised by how many other parents seem to think that this lockdown could continue for the rest of the academic year. I’m expecting the worst of the lockdown to be over by Feb half term - I.e. when millions of the most vulnerable will have received the vaccine, winter is almost over, and the seasonal drain on the NHS is alleviated. What am I missing?! I also believe we will be able to go on “normal” holidays again by Easter...

The news is just saying now that the NHS is warning the peak with be in a month, so sorry not gonna happen

@PurpleMustang

The news is just saying now that the NHS is warning the peak with be in a month, so sorry not gonna happen

I think you might be confused on the peak of deaths v the peak of cases. Peak of deaths follows ans lags cases. You need to clarify which you’re referring to. The peak of cases looks to have possibly passed. So the peak of deaths will be in the next 28 days.

Op, I don’t think mid February no, and Boris didn’t say that, he said mid feb plus two to three weeks, so I’d estimate things start to open up again early March.

I reckon kids will be back to school on spring/easter

I'm betting on March or even April before things even start to get more normal.

I’m not feeling at all positive about this year. The drip drip of information in the press about the South African and Brazilian/Japanese variants concerns me

Op I don't know what, I was all geared up for this to totally be surpressed by spring. This new strain, has taken everyone by compete surprise so who knows.

Nice thought but think too optimistic. They are still on with vaccinating the over 80’s and all the ones I know of still haven’t even been contacted with a date yet.
As well as the categories I think its a bit of a postcode lottery how quickly you receive the vaccine.

That’s more or less what Johnson said this time last year, so...

when millions of the most vulnerable will have received the vaccine, winter is almost over, and the seasonal drain on the NHS is alleviated
So mod Feb they're had their FIRST dose. It would pass on some decrease in illnesses two weeks behind that and then hospital beds tow weeks after that.

So it theory although there should be an improvement, it'll be at least 4 weeks after the 13th. And that's assuming the first is enough. It could be another month behind that.

That's basically Easter

Nichola sturgeon said may before all the vulnerable people and over 50s "should " be vaccinated IF we get the vaccine supplies. Though I'm not sure if that's 1 or both doses.
I doubt schools will be back until after Easter

I don't think this lockdown will be here all year. Equally I think holidays at Easter is optimistic. I reckon we will be much less restricted by then though but still with social distancing and restrictions on meeting in groups of 6+.

Also didn't he saytop4 but then add in he'd want the over 60s done too

They estimated all over 60s to be vaccinated by April in Scotland. After that restrictions will gradually be lifted.

Oh that would be much better than what I was thinking (not this school year! ESP as my DC GCSE and A levels have already been cancelled)

@EssentialHummus

That’s more or less what Johnson said this time last year, so...

It’s a bit different this time with the vaccine!

My sister works in a school and the widely held belief amongst schools is that the children are home for the term, and will return after Easter (at the earliest)

The over 80’s are currently only having their first vaccine - 12 weeks until the next and the over 80’s aren’t all due to have their first vaccine until the middle of February.
The hospitals are forecasting that they’ve not reached the peak yet and today’s number of deaths was one of the highest.
Still along way to go.

I love your glass half full approach. But I predicted to a friend the vaccine roll out cockups back in Nov. Realistically, we are looking at Autumn as earliest normality . GP's are still reporting supply issues even now the army has taken over supply logistics. Especially/also, as Boris stated no one would take up 24/7 jabs if they offered them, as per Israels highly successful approach. I would go for a jab at 3am if offered, personally. To me it's the only way Spring targets will be met.

I think in about 6 weeks we'll start to see the light at the end of the tunnel so to speak. The next 4 to 6 weeks are going to be hard though.

I don’t think normal by Easter but hopefully well on the way! I think summer will be A LOT better!

I very much doubt it. But warmer weather and lighter evenings will help cheer us all up.

Last March someone senior said 18 months before normality. I’m believing that.

If we're lucky the worst may be over by Easter. Though normality will take rather longer.

I think Feb half term is very unlikely but maybe after Easter if people follow the rules.

By that, I mean fuckwit employers aren't insisting that staff who could easily work from home come into an office using public transport, people who have no real exemption stop being babies about wearing masks, and those who should be self isolating actually do it.