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AIBU?

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Original poster

To think this will largely be over in two months?!

366 replies

ChristmasIvy · 12/01/2021 18:23

I’m home schooling at the moment and surprised by how many other parents seem to think that this lockdown could continue for the rest of the academic year. I’m expecting the worst of the lockdown to be over by Feb half term - I.e. when millions of the most vulnerable will have received the vaccine, winter is almost over, and the seasonal drain on the NHS is alleviated. What am I missing?! I also believe we will be able to go on “normal” holidays again by Easter...

OP posts:
tobee · 14/01/2021 01:13

Show me a quote from a credible scientist that has been peer reviewed that says what you said about hospitalisation?

Truelymadlydeeplysomeonesmum · 14/01/2021 01:18

I don't think anyone is saying the vaccines are the silver bullet. What those of us that have read the research are saying is they have enough efficiency to get the UK and the world out of this current mess fairly swiftlySmile

pistachionuts · 14/01/2021 01:25

The aim of the vaccine overall is to reduce the number of deaths and hospitalisation from Covid. It will still exist and circulate when ‘normal’ returns but won’t be killing people and overwhelming the NHS at the rate it does without a vaccine.

It’s not a case of we can only return to normality once there is no Covid anywhere and we’ve completely eliminated it. We live with other viruses and diseases including flu which infects and kills many annually but we don’t lockdowns or measures during flu seasons?

pistachionuts · 14/01/2021 01:28

I mean surely that’s how things will progress? Covid will exist beyond the vaccine but it will be seen in society in very much the same way as flu- common but unpleasant, vulnerable people must be vaccinated and protected as it can potentially be very dangerous for them.

tobee · 14/01/2021 01:34

@Truelymadlydeeplysomeonesmum

I don't think anyone is saying the vaccines are the silver bullet. What those of us that have read the research are saying is they have enough efficiency to get the UK and the world out of this current mess fairly swiftlySmile
That's how I read it too!
PrincessNutNuts · 14/01/2021 01:34

@Truelymadlydeeplysomeonesmum

I don't think anyone is saying the vaccines are the silver bullet. What those of us that have read the research are saying is they have enough efficiency to get the UK and the world out of this current mess fairly swiftlySmile
We don't know anything about real world effectiveness yet. We have data on efficacy.
tobee · 14/01/2021 01:35

But the data is based on trials? Which is real world? It's not just modelling.

PrincessNutNuts · 14/01/2021 01:36

@tobee

Show me a quote from a credible scientist that has been peer reviewed that says what you said about hospitalisation?
What is it you think the vaccines do?
PrincessNutNuts · 14/01/2021 01:37

@tobee

But the data is based on trials? Which is real world? It's not just modelling.
Trials are not the real world.
PrincessNutNuts · 14/01/2021 01:37

@pistachionuts

I mean surely that’s how things will progress? Covid will exist beyond the vaccine but it will be seen in society in very much the same way as flu- common but unpleasant, vulnerable people must be vaccinated and protected as it can potentially be very dangerous for them.
Yes.

But not in 8 weeks time.

tobee · 14/01/2021 01:39

Agreed @pistachionuts. As with all vaccines that have been developed so far. We all know that some people still get flu & other illnesses that have vaccines; severely and some will die. But that is greatly reduced.

Fortunately, herd immunity, by way of vaccination immunity and immunity from having had disease, exists to protect those who cannot have vaccines or have not yet had vaccines.

tobee · 14/01/2021 01:40

Trials are the real world. Those who took part went out in the real world and carried on taking precautions like the rest of us.

Did you think they sat in laboratories?

PrincessNutNuts · 14/01/2021 01:49

@tobee

Trials are the real world. Those who took part went out in the real world and carried on taking precautions like the rest of us.

Did you think they sat in laboratories?

Trials with 20,000 people isn't the real world.
tobee · 14/01/2021 01:51

Oh right. What is it then?

Truelymadlydeeplysomeonesmum · 14/01/2021 01:52

Princess I get the impression ot is you that doesn't understand what a vaccine does.

Between the vaccinations and the immunity people will have after this second wave we will rapidly slow down the virus and get it under control very soon.

Neil Fergusson himself the merchant of doom said exactly that himself this week.

tobee · 14/01/2021 01:56

Anyway Princess, looking forward to your quote from credible peer reviewed scientist, saying as you said, that most people who need hospitalisation now will still need to be hospitalised after vaccination. As to what some random blokes are speculating on Twitter.

tobee · 14/01/2021 01:57

As opposed* to what some random blokes are speculating on Twitter.

wombat1a · 14/01/2021 01:57

By the time the 30-40s will be having the vaccine the over 80s will be probably be needing another one.

Truelymadlydeeplysomeonesmum · 14/01/2021 01:58

We Israel has agreed with Pfizer to be the first whole country vaccine trial ever.

That should give you joy princess.

I will wager with you the efficiency and side effects are not significantly different to the current data.

Quite frankly twenty thousand people is a massive trial. You are talking nut nutsGrin

tobee · 14/01/2021 02:00

@wombat1a

By the time the 30-40s will be having the vaccine the over 80s will be probably be needing another one.
Quite possibly. And that is what vaccine developers have said from the beginning. In a similar way to the annual flu jab, and other booster jabs.

However, it's also possible it will be similar to SARS Cov 1 where people still have immunity some 18 years later, as Prof John Campbell said the other day on his vlog.

Truelymadlydeeplysomeonesmum · 14/01/2021 02:00

@tobee

Anyway Princess, looking forward to your quote from credible peer reviewed scientist, saying as you said, that most people who need hospitalisation now will still need to be hospitalised after vaccination. As to what some random blokes are speculating on Twitter.
Me thinks she may struggle thereWink
Truelymadlydeeplysomeonesmum · 14/01/2021 02:02

@wombat1a

By the time the 30-40s will be having the vaccine the over 80s will be probably be needing another one.
Yep

That is the plan. It is why we have ordered so much and are upping vaccination capacity all the time.

wombat1a · 14/01/2021 02:20

We might have a fairly normal summer but international travel will be disrupted for pretty much the whole year as sensible countries will insist on 14 days quarantine.

For an example of a country protecting its people well go look at Taiwan, where my DB lives, an island like us, with 23 million people, many of whom live in cities but still less than 900 cases total of C19 and less than 10 deaths. Boris could learn a lot from them.

I read that they had a single case 2 wks ago of a pilot who infected his girlfriend with C19 after coming back from aboard and it was their first local transmission case for 6 months.

They have managed all this without a single lockdown, restaurants are still open, cinemas everything.

DS is a biomed scientist who has had to give up working on C19 because they don't have enough cases in the hospitals to get samples from/run tests on.

Mamanyt · 14/01/2021 04:09

Possibly in the UK...for your sakes, I most sincerely pray that is true. Here in the USA, I'm hopeful that we will see some real changes in the latter part of the summer. But given our population and sheer landmass (and lack of government action to date), that's about the best we can hope for.

IncorrigibleTitmouse · 14/01/2021 04:29

We’ve got plane tickets booked to come home for a visit in the summer so I’m desperately hoping it’ll be well on the way to being under control by then. I’ll be devastated if we can’t come.