To think this will largely be over in two months?!

[ChristmasIvy]

I’m home schooling at the moment and surprised by how many other parents seem to think that this lockdown could continue for the rest of the academic year. I’m expecting the worst of the lockdown to be over by Feb half term - I.e. when millions of the most vulnerable will have received the vaccine, winter is almost over, and the seasonal drain on the NHS is alleviated. What am I missing?! I also believe we will be able to go on “normal” holidays again by Easter...

I think that, provided nothing goes wrong with the vaccine (like a new strain that the vaccine doesn't work on):
-YR, Y1, Y2 and possibly Y6 will be back after February half term, or maybe a couple of weeks later if the hospitals are still struggling. All other years back for start of the summer term, possibly before though.
-Restrictions will slowly start being lifted around middle of March, mostly lifted by June and then possibly mild restrictions being brought back in October (masks indoors and distancing in crowded places).
-Foreign holidays I'm not sure at all, depends on whether we find out if the vaccine stops you from spreading the virus, also depends on how far through the vaccine program the country that you want to go to is. I'd say we will be able to go on holiday to some countries in the summer.
-Next year the virus will be treated in much the same way as the flu. Seasonal with a vaccine for the vulnerable, a very small percentage of deaths unfortunately. I don't actually believe that under 50s (unless CV or ECV) will ever get the vaccine, by the time we get round to them it will nearly be time to vaccinate group 1 again, plus I don't think the government will consider it essential.

Just my predictions, I suppose that some may say they are optimistic but I prefer to be optimistic

I can't see any real improvement until the summer sadly. How long are the vaccinations going to take?

My parents are 92 and 95 and don't even have a date for theirs yet. My mum is diabetic and has had breast cancer so surely is regarded as high risk?

Think its wishful thinking.
Also it will probably return next winter.

The furlough scheme is currently until end of April with the possibly of pubs opening 1 may at very earliest.

The R rate is going to drop just because a few million are vaccinated.

I am struggling to see anything positive 😡

@lynsey91

I can't see any real improvement until the summer sadly. How long are the vaccinations going to take?

My parents are 92 and 95 and don't even have a date for theirs yet. My mum is diabetic and has had breast cancer so surely is regarded as high risk?

This , my MIL is 89 and her GPs website is still saying vaccines will be starting soon .

@ChristmasIvy

I’m home schooling at the moment and surprised by how many other parents seem to think that this lockdown could continue for the rest of the academic year. I’m expecting the worst of the lockdown to be over by Feb half term - I.e. when millions of the most vulnerable will have received the vaccine, winter is almost over, and the seasonal drain on the NHS is alleviated. What am I missing?! I also believe we will be able to go on “normal” holidays again by Easter...

The top 4 most vulnerable groups will be vaccinated by 15th MAY.

I don't think they will invite year groups back earlier as they did in March this time, as there's no space.

No, that is way too optimistic. Late summer there may be more normality. My elderly parents, late 80s with health issues, haven’t been issued with any appointment for even a first dose of vaccine yet. There’s a way to go yet.

The target is to vaccinate the priority groups by around April.

These groups don’t include children, most teachers or most parents. High numbers of infections in these groups still have the potential to cause chaos for schools.

February half-term is a lot less than two months away. I expect for the UK there will be most of the restrictions until April, except perhaps some school re-opening.

I think it will be a lot longer before you can travel abroad with a degree of certainty.

Vaccines are being done quicker in some areas. My parents had their first dose last week and they are 75 and 78.
Having said that I can't see things being "normal" until mid to late summer at the earliest. So I think schools might go back after Easter but more likely to be September.

I think that schools will be back after Easter (on the basis that they are the priority this time), but that there will still be significant restrictions until most adults are vaccinated (August at the earliest).

What does winter have to do with it?
Covid didn’t stop last summer did it?

No chance will people be holidaying in Easter holidays normally Easter is 2nd April
I take no pleasure in that as haven’t seen my family since Xmas 19 as need to fly there but can’t see it

Boris said he hoped to have vaccinated 15m by Feb half term but it was 2-3 weeks after that date when we'd see the positive effects of vaccinating those people. By then I guess it's time to give those 15m their second jab.

2-3 weeks after Feb half term is March (that's assuming that they make that target) Therefore I'm assuming a return to school in the summer term at the earliest

2 months no, 6 months - much more normal.

Yes it will go away in the summer and by next winter, enough of us will have been vaccinated to allow herd immunity or they will have invested into icu care, orwe will all just rumble on even though some people are dying. Some people are always dying.

Schools won;t be back until September in my estimation.

@TerrifiedOfTrying4No2

What does winter have to do with it? Covid didn’t stop last summer did it?

Yes it did!!

Depends what you mean by normal. To go back to a mid-2019 level of "normal" will probably be end of 2022 or early 2023 as it'll take the economy a long time to recover and some sectors may never recover, they will adapt instead e.g. domestic business travel will probably never go back to what is was in 2019. I expect schools will reopen from Easter hols and that we will mostly be in Tier 2 or Tier 1 by June, so not normal but much less restricted than now. I expect we'll have to go back into Tier 3 or similar next Nov and there will be limits on indoor events next winter as well. Roll on 2023!

Well if you use one of the vaccine calculators - like this one - and pop in your age you'll have a rough estimate of when you're likely to get the vaccine.

www.omnicalculator.com/health/vaccine-queue-uk

I'm just over 55 years old and my dates based on 1 million vaccinations per week are first dose May/June and second dose August/September. If you take it to 2 million per week that comes in at March/April for the first dose and June for the second.

It'll be after the Easter holidays all being well.

@Ugzbugz

The furlough scheme is currently until end of April with the possibly of pubs opening 1 may at very earliest.

The R rate is going to drop just because a few million are vaccinated.

I am struggling to see anything positive 😡

If the first thing to reopen again is pubs, I will totally implode.

This government's priorities are shameful.

Winter means there’s extra pressure on the NHS generally, even without Covid it’s usually flat out.

I wish that the OP were right. You might as well be hopeful! But I think we’re looking at at least May.

@QuestionableMouse

I'm betting on March or even April before things even start to get more normal.

Me too, if we're lucky.