To think this will largely be over in two months?!

[ChristmasIvy]

I’m home schooling at the moment and surprised by how many other parents seem to think that this lockdown could continue for the rest of the academic year. I’m expecting the worst of the lockdown to be over by Feb half term - I.e. when millions of the most vulnerable will have received the vaccine, winter is almost over, and the seasonal drain on the NHS is alleviated. What am I missing?! I also believe we will be able to go on “normal” holidays again by Easter...

@LickEmbysmiling

Re Spanish flu which was much worse, didn't some immunity happen to the next generation? How did that die out?.. I'm wondering that maybe the young will be OK, they are exposed and it will die out when they become adults?

interesting question @LickEmbysmiling I nabbed this off history.com

"
By the summer of 1919, the flu pandemic came to an end, as those that were infected either died or developed immunity."

I think the peak of infections is probably around now which means the peak of hospital cases and deaths are probably 3-4 weeks from now. So although we might be over that by mid feb, the nhs will still be on its knees and there will be no margin for error. I think late march/april things will improve dramatically and I think holidays in the UK might be ok but going abroad will be subject to tests/ quarantining at best.
I expect schools will be back after easter, possibly some time in march if very very optimistic. We have holiday in europe booked for 1st June and I think unlikely (we may be able to physically go, but it might just be still too complicated to go)

I think restrictions will be around for longer than this year. Probably relax and tighten over and over again.
It will be interesting to see whether things will be allowed to go back to normal after the vulnerable and elderly are vaccinated.

@Elephant4

This new variant is highly highly contagious. Other variants are also and more will be on their way.

We know that lockdowns only pause the spread.

The vaccines are not going to eradicate COVID. Not by a long shot.

This pattern of locking down etc will last for another year at least. I expect more.

The vaccine isn’t supposed to eradicate Covid though is it? I thought it was to make it manageable, again how flu still exists, people get ill and die every year from it but it doesn’t overwhelm the NHS and we get on with life despite it existing and infecting many people.

I don’t see how we could afford to keep locking down for years to come, lockdown relies on things like furlough schemes that can only go on for so long surely?

Easter i personally think.

Early summer at the earliest, but they'll try and open things up after Easter. Don't expect a foreign holiday this year.

Vaccinating the most vulnerable is not enough on ut's own. We need to reach a vetry significant majority of the population before the spread of the virus is stopped between pockets of the vaccinated.

There are a lot of assumptions about the vaccine, they may not all be correct. It's not yet known if vaccinated people can still spread the disease to others. It's not yet known how long the protection offered by the vaccine will last. There's always the possibility that a new strain will emerge that will require a new round of vaccinations.

Things will not be exactly like they were before Covid for several years. It's likely to be around for quite a while. But things will return to a relative degree of normality, maybe with added annual booster jabs for us all. Just don't build your hopes up for 'normal' to return too soon. You'll only end up dissapointed.

My (surgeon) brother said he thinks by late July, early August, but we may still be wearing masks and distancing in the winter of 2021.

I'm hoping schools might be operating by Easter, but I think teaching/school staff should be vaccinated.

The SA and Brazilian strains look a bit worrying to me......

@scotsllb

I'm moving house next week and sky have told me that if my broadband is not able to be connected from outside my property, then they will rearrange the appointment for after the restrictions have lifted.

The engineers are unable to enter properties as of last Tuesday apparently.

I have a teen homeschooling, one at college online and myself uni online.

AIBU to think that broadband is an essential service in these times?
I'm terrified at the prospect of being without internet during this

Knowing Openreach the engineer probably wouldn't know what to do anyway when they (finally) turn up to an appointment

I really think April will be more likely. Perhaps less restrictions in March, then schools open after Easter break.

Wow ok.
Small hope then.

Before Christmas I was optimistic that with the vaccine, things would improve rapidly from around Easter, but what with new strain and the increasing likelihood that we will still have to very much stay apart from one another for a good while yet I think that improvement will be slower than I'd hoped.

I think a lot will hang on what sort of impact vaccination looks like making on hospitalisation in March (probably the earliest we might see any effect), by which time a fair amount at least of the most vulnerable will be covered, which should take the strain off the NHS, which is basically the most vital thing to manage.

But yes - normal is a way off; I don't think there will be a point where we notice things are normal, most likely a few months after the last restrictions go we'll all go 'Oh, hang on, we stopped doing X months ago didn't we, I didn't even notice'

[quote namechangereq]@Ch3rish he didn't say that at all. Don't worry.[/quote]
That's good to know @namechangereq, I havent heard the news today so did wonder if I'd missed him changing his view

I'm interested though why @Jangle33 , why would you make that up? Do you have some kind of agenda?

Nobody knows what impact of vaccine will be, especially as UK had decided to give second baccine outside recommended timescales.
So it is entirely unclear whether this will achieve any long term immunity.
Also it remains unclear whether vaccine only protects vaccinated person from getting I'll or does it actually stop them from passing on infection.
Additional problem with extended timespan between first and second dose of vaccine is that it can encourage new virus mutations to become resistant to vaccine

Looks like I've been optimistic for the first time ever.

I'm genuinely thinking after feb half term, at least for yr13 and 11. Every time I hate the juggling of own kid work and teaching, I keep thinking it won't be for as long. I hate remote teaching.

Panorama said last night,Autumn at the earliest for any hope of normality.

@namechangereq

I don’t think normal by Easter but hopefully well on the way! I think summer will be A LOT better!

Until it all starts again next winter

@Frazzled2207

I think the peak of infections is probably around now which means the peak of hospital cases and deaths are probably 3-4 weeks from now. So although we might be over that by mid feb, the nhs will still be on its knees and there will be no margin for error. I think late march/april things will improve dramatically and I think holidays in the UK might be ok but going abroad will be subject to tests/ quarantining at best. I expect schools will be back after easter, possibly some time in march if very very optimistic. We have holiday in europe booked for 1st June and I think unlikely (we may be able to physically go, but it might just be still too complicated to go)

I don’t think we’ve got to the infections from schools going back yet. This ‘peak’ might be from the period between the end of Xmas and the schools returning. There might be enough of a lag in the data that the effect of the 1 day mixing in primary schools and then the increased number of children in schools under ‘keyworker’ provision hasn’t yet shown up.

Lets also hope the governments decision to delay the 2nd dose doesnt lead to the emergence of a super mutant strain that manages to beat the vaccine,

@SleepingStandingUp whats the point in the vaccines then? If next winter will be the same....

Wishful thinking on your part.

I think the summer is more realistic but improved by Easter

If the over 80s and other vulnerable categories don't want vaccines between 8pm and 8am why can't they be given to teachers, police, retail staff, transport workers and younger people during those hours if we have the vaccines and the manpower? Honest question. Why should the limitations of some categories provide other categories from having the vaccine?

@MysteriesOfTheOrganism

My feeling is that normality should be resumed by around September. Assuming that we don't get a variant that's immune to the vaccine...

We will reach a new normality around September. There'll be a very brief respite before the virus mutates yet again , in time for another winter of lockdowns.

"In reality, hope is the worst of all evils, because it prolongs man's torments.”

I think if you believe only elderly or people with serious underlying conditions are getting hospitalised and dying then yes you might well believe that once these people are vaccinated it will all be over.

IMO you would be incorrect. Half of people in critical care units do not fall in these categories, which is a lot of people.

I won't be back to normal until I've had my vaccine. Aged 45-50, obese but not morbidly obese. Not currently on the vaccine list.