To think this will largely be over in two months?!

[ChristmasIvy]

I’m home schooling at the moment and surprised by how many other parents seem to think that this lockdown could continue for the rest of the academic year. I’m expecting the worst of the lockdown to be over by Feb half term - I.e. when millions of the most vulnerable will have received the vaccine, winter is almost over, and the seasonal drain on the NHS is alleviated. What am I missing?! I also believe we will be able to go on “normal” holidays again by Easter...

I don't think the schools will open fully till Easter. They may do a staggered return for reception.and Yr 1 children. Hopefully restrictions will start to ease by March/April.

I do not see normality in terms of big weddings, events, festivals, packed out theatres till 2022!

‘It will be over by Christmas’ ...said BJ last summer

@wanderings

I wish I could hope for that. It’s so hard to see an end to this Groundhog Day when Saint Boris has been telling us “just twelve weeks” then “normal by September”, then “by Christmas”, then “by Easter”, and then “we need to squeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeze the brakes”.

hahaha also "vaccEEEN"

@Stovetopespresso - Matt Hancock replied to a question about it saying he thought most older people would find it more convenient to have their vaccines in the day time rather than the dead of night but he wouldn’t rule out 24 hour vaccines if that’s what it takes.

Can’t believe anyone would believe a word the Tory government say following the last year. I’m expecting some kind of cock up, unexpected delays shortly.

Some centres in London are on to vaccinating over 70s a friend who is 73 went and got hers today.

But I suspect that it will be April at the earliest before schools go back and that BoJo knew that when he said mid-Feb. Unless Whitty gets his way in which case it will be next January at the earliest.....

I think it may be a little longer than you say but at least there is light at the end of the tunnel. I think things will start getting back to normal by April and holidays etc back to normal by June. However, this is assuming there are no vaccine setbacks or mutations that vaccines will struggle to work against.

Jet2 have announced flights are suspended until March 25th, so can't see normal holidays for some time

In fairness things will always be different from what used to be normal, even if the difference is only annual vaccinations and covid as well as mrsa swabs when being admitted to hospital. And things like a sustained increase in grocery deliveries and online shopping. Better hygiene practices remaining would be nice too.

I think some kind of phased return after Easter would be a very good outcome. There's no way it will be possible to ease restrictions by Feb half term. That's not realistic at all.

The pressure on nhs from all the delayed treatments over the last year won't go away with winter ending either.

@ChristmasIvy I love your optimism, and I pray it IS over by mid March.

But I very much doubt it will be.. Sorry..

As @nocoolnamesleft said, I think the worst will be over by Easter, (maybe mid to late April/early May,) but normality won't return until early 2022.

We have some special anniversaries/special birthdays coming up this year in our family, and back in 2019, we were hoping to have a couple of parties (this year,) and also a few trips abroad. (Between us all.) None of this is happening now. Two big events are August and September, but we wouldn't even plan anything for then, even though it's 7-8 months away. Won't risk it.

We are planning online learning until Easter.

I have a horrible feeling something is about to go spectacularly wrong very shortly, like the virus mutating so the vaccine doesn't work or some unknown side effect of the vaccine coming out of the woodwork. It's a feeling I can't shake and can't get optimistic.

oh god I get that @CoronaIsWatching the dreaded dread of dreading....

Normal holidays by Easter will not happen.

We've not had the peak from the Christmas rule breakers yet and there are still too many twats breaking the rules.

The groups that will have been vaccinated by mid-Feb account for 88% of Covid deaths. So I am optimistically hoping that schools will re-open after Feb half-term but expecting them to be fully re-open after Easter, with other restrictions gradually being eased from mid-March onwards.

if it was a sci fi novel ....what would the plot twist be....

Hell yes OP. You can be optimistic or pessimistic. I would much rather be optimistic and wrong than pessimistic and right. But we could just be, sweet Jesus willing, optimistic and right!

yes you KNOW it will end

To be honest I don't think so , I work in the nhs and changed jobs recently , I was asked if I could start on jan 4th , before I'd done any of my mandatory training , this is unheard of in this trust , even when I was a return practice nurse I was not allowed to step foot on the wards till completed it.
Feel we are in this state until the summer, the teachers unions are large and I feel the government bowed to their pressure.

What you are missing is the situation in Liverpool and the Isle of Wight. Both areas were in tier two before Christmas. Within two weeks they were in deep trouble - Liverpool went from 52 per 100,000 to more than 1,000 per 100,000 and the Isle of Wight has so many covid hospitalisations the govt is considering sending the army in to transport them to hospitals on the mainland. That suggests nowhere can open up until everyone over 16 is vaccinated which Hancock says will be in September.

Sorry, depressing, I know...

This new variant is highly highly contagious. Other variants are also and more will be on their way.

We know that lockdowns only pause the spread.

The vaccines are not going to eradicate COVID. Not by a long shot.

This pattern of locking down etc will last for another year at least. I expect more.

I think easing of the worst of restrictions to tier 4 or 3 could be viable between Feb half term to Easter if we are currently approaching the main peak and cases/ hospital admissions show a pattern of calming down over several weeks. This is the peak point for respiritory illness and associated deaths anyway and by March those rates usually start dropping significantly. We don't know the extent of Covid through communities this time last year and it is possible that it peaks earlier because it's more endemic through the community at this stage of winter.

I think April-June for significant easing through tiers 3-1. Businesses already have Covid "secure" measures so that removes a lot of delay compared to 2020. We also have a clearer idea of levels of risk in different settings.

I'll know we're fully normal when mass indoor events finally return. I'm not holding my breath, but I think there will be more outdoor events over the summer albeit with distancing measures.

At least we're past the shortest day, and inching our way towards lighter evenings which is a small help.

I reckon things will be slightly eased by summer as I think its going to be a seasonal illness like the flu long term. I doubt we will all be jetting off on holidays -unless you are very rich, a celeb or a bloody instagrammer who have all seemed to be in the Maldives and Dubai non stop. The prices of holidays will likely be extortionate as countries try to claw back some of the money lost in the last year from the tourists to their countries.

Our LA have asked us to put procedures/resources in place for online planning until the Maybhakf-term ☹️

I have a horrible feeling something is about to go spectacularly wrong very shortly, like the virus mutating so the vaccine doesn't work or some unknown side effect of the vaccine coming out of the woodwork. It's a feeling I can't shake and can't get optimistic.

I have this too.