To ask what would people judge as Brexit success

[SchrodingersBox]

"For years, all supposedly sensible pundits have told us Brexit spells doom for Britain – now they must eat their words" Editorial in Bild today.

If UK GDP has grown by more than EU GDP by the end of this parliament, due to be Dec 2024 but probably May 2024, would people who are anti Brexit accept that it has been successful? If not what would it take?

In terms of voting, if UK GDP growth is higher than EU growth in 3-4 years time then it has been successful.
Yanbu = agree
Yabu = disagree

That's an impossible question to answer unless you are comparing GDP growth pre and post brexit. EU growth is an average of all countries so some are higher, some are lower. Where has UK growth fallen historically within the EU range?

How can you tell? It hasn't happened yet.

Oh, and I voted yabu because the question you are asking is comparing apples and oranges.

Remainers? Absolutely nothing because then they could still fecking whinge about a democratic process and all the morons who voted for Brexit just got lucky.

There is no such thing. We are already economically worse off as a result. Money is not the only measure of success in any case.

Brexit has led to Boris Johnson as Prime Minister. The worst option the Tories could ever have chosen.

It would be extraordinary if UK GDP were higher than in the EU, although it would be one measure of success. I think reduced inequality, along woth rising prosperity, would be a better measure of success. Though how adding red tape and destroying whole industries would promote that successful outcome, I don't know.

As a remain-voting Brit, I just hope I'm allowed to stay in France. :(

@SchrodingersBox - so can you provide the data (or even a link to it) so that posters can determine whether a higher GDP growth than EU average is an improvement over the UK position when in the EU?

Hindsight. So stop counting your imaginary chickens op.

Remainers? Absolutely nothing because then they could still fecking whinge about a democratic process and all the morons who voted for Brexit just got lucky.

Nope, the morons are doubly unlucky. Firstly because they are morons and secondly because they are about to see their cost of living skyrocket while their jobs move abroad. It's the young I feel most sorry for.

For me, it isn't about the financials. It is about how we come across as a nation. Do my foreign colleagues feel welcome, does this feel like an inclusive and accepting country or has racism overridden that?

Can I feel proud of how we have acted on the world stage, in terms of climate control, asylum seekers, aid support etc. Or have we turned in to a racist, insular, small minded country, a geographical representation of all Nigel Farage embodies?

If we can be a world player, support other countries, offer asylum, be a leader for the environment and human rights, then I would consider that a success.

A success?

1. Tolerance, MUCH less racism and xenophobia

1. NO benefit bashing

1. Cunts on Daily Mail comments section not saying 'good, shouldn't have come' about a 2 week old baby that drowned in the Channel

NEVER GOING TO HAPPEN

Instead we're going to get worse - racism is growing in this country

How could isolationism, a reduction of rights and of freedoms be a success?

It’s not only about GDP, although I expect that to fall, and increased unemployment.

I absolutely want to be proved wrong and see that Brexit is a success.

For this I would expect booming industry with a lot of independents thriving, affordable housing, excellent opportunities for encourage skilled workers to move to the UK, young people achieving higher salaries and better opportunities than their parents (not hard), a realistic living wage and doing much better in terms of our healthcare and the mental well-being of citizens.

We’re starting at a pretty low bar for all of these things, but I’d like to see effort being made to make our lives better across the board. Then I’ll happily eat my words on how much of a shitshow the entire concept of Brexit was.

Definitely less inequality and a rise in wages / living standards.

Our wages have been stagnant for about 10 years, and when you compare U.K. purchasing power on a global scale to US / Aus we’re definitely poorer.

A friend of mine has moved to San Fran doing the exact same job I do in the U.K. he earns more than double, and even taking into account living costs he is significantly better off. He will have cleared his student loan in 2 years, it will take me about 9.

I don't think you can judge it in 3-4 years. More like 20 years.

If the UK has outgrown the EU average in 20 years it will be an economic success.

Of course, GDP success is not the only measure. Could also be seen as a if it shifts trade ties to other Mary's if the world, which are growing faster, or if the UK produce more food, thus making it more resilient.

If UK GDP has grown by more than EU GDP by the end of this parliament, due to be Dec 2024 but probably May 2024, would people who are anti Brexit accept that it has been successful? If not what would it take?

An increase in GDP on its own (I don't need to see that we are "beating" the EU) would not be a measure of success for me. I would want to see that that national "success" has not come at the expense of citizens, and that workers', environmental and animal rights have been retained, and preferably improved. And that spivs aren't continuing to benefit from socialism for the rich or unregulated financial systems, making the standard of living, cost of housing, etc. worse for the population at large.

*areas not Mary's! Isn't it time the forum had an edit feature?

@OchonAgusOchonO No I'm asking about future performance.

@nosswith what economic figures you using to make that assertion?

@Charlottejbt so if red tape is reduced and new industries launched then it's been successful? I always think inequality is a bit of a red herring, I think absolute poverty is a better measure. I suspect it is harder to measure that across countries than GDP.

Brexit has taken away my rights. There is literally no way that this can possibly be measured as a success.

@tttigress - If the UK has outgrown the EU average in 20 years it will be an economic success.

Where does the UK currently sit wrt the EU GDP average? If it's currently at the top but drops closer to the average, it will be a worsening of the UK position, even if it's above the average. Conversely, if it's currently below average but moves up closer to the average, it will be an improvement even if it is still below the average.

You are trying to compare 2 different things by only looking at the UK's position wrt to the EU average in the future.

@SchrodingersBox - No I'm asking about future performance.

Yes, I know. And in order to answer the question about future performance, we need to have a baseline telling us about current performance.

As I said in my last post Where does the UK currently sit wrt the EU GDP average? If it's currently at the top but drops closer to the average, it will be a worsening of the UK position, even if it's above the average. Conversely, if it's currently below average but moves up closer to the average, it will be an improvement even if it is still below the average.

Apples and oranges without the baseline.

@SchrodingersBox I'd diferentiate between the useless sort of red tape - Johnson's new customs forms, for example - and the kind that actually protects people, such as environmental standards, workers' rights, etc. Brexiteers usually want more of the former and less of the latter, though we'll see how things work out.

Inequality and abdolute poverty are both meaningful indicators of a nation's success, if you define a nation as including its populace as a whole rather than just the elites. Fortunately or unfortunately, Britain has much room for improvement in both extreme poverty and inequality. When charities no longer need to feed the hungry, that will be one success worth celebrating, although a decent country would demand more for its most vulnerable citizens than just not starving to death.

Scotland becoming independent would probably be as much as I can hope for.

We are far less racist than most of the rest of the EU. And far more tolerant generally. (Hungary, Poland, Albania. Romania, Latvia, - you really think all races are weclome and equal in those countries? (I can tell you - they aren't). Greece Spain, Italy, France - trying but nowhere near as accepting of mixed race relationships and nowhere near as accommodating as the UK to foreigners. Not many Black and Asians are happily living in Czechia, Bulgaria, Slovenia, Slovakia or Estonia . Many many British who voted Leave were in fact Black or Asian British, - but much easier to lable the UK as the most racist country in Europe and all remainers as such.

To answer the OP's question - I think we will never know. I hope that we do OK and that the EU also does ok but whether this was the right decision or not depends on who you are, whether you are a winner or a loser and what your priorities are.