To ask what would people judge as Brexit success

[SchrodingersBox]

"For years, all supposedly sensible pundits have told us Brexit spells doom for Britain – now they must eat their words" Editorial in Bild today.

If UK GDP has grown by more than EU GDP by the end of this parliament, due to be Dec 2024 but probably May 2024, would people who are anti Brexit accept that it has been successful? If not what would it take?

Of course they will not accept. They will make sure it looks like a failure and will sabotage if they can. May be some of the things leavers voted for would rather put up or are not even bothered with so in their eyes there is not enough reasons to vote leave and will never see it as a success.

@blueangel19

Of course they will not accept. They will make sure it looks like a failure and will sabotage if they can. May be some of the things leavers voted for would rather put up or are not even bothered with so in their eyes there is not enough reasons to vote leave and will never see it as a success.

Paranoid and othering, much?

Why so miserable? You've won, right?

@FirstOfficerDouglas - nowhere near as accommodating as the UK to foreigners.

You've obviously never been a foreigner living in the UK. I have. While many people are fine, I have been the subject of casual xenophobia disguised as "just a bit of fun" as well as out and out xenophobic abuse.

As our GDP is already slightly above the average of the EU27 after 4 years of economic damage, if it was less than average 4 years from now I'd consider that a pretty catastrophic failure.

Estimated GDP figures for 2020 UK $2.978 trillion, EU $18.377 trillion.

@OchonAgusOchonO

@FirstOfficerDouglas - nowhere near as accommodating as the UK to foreigners.
You've obviously never been a foreigner living in the UK. I have. While many people are fine, I have been the subject of casual xenophobia disguised as "just a bit of fun" as well as out and out xenophobic abuse.

Nobody is denying that there are racists in the UK but to hear some Hungarian acquaintances of ours use disgusting racist language in their everyday speech is shocking. They casually refer to black people as lazy scum and n***s and laugh at us when we remonstrate. Acquaintances, never friends.

I'd judge brexit a success, not on GDP figures but on our relationship to the EU.
If we are indeed a close and reliable friend to them, with good co-op on defence, security, travel, education, trade between us has increased etc then good, brexit hasn't been damaging.

If though we are a rival, seeking to undermine them at every opportunity, then i would see that as failure.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_the_European_Union#Economies_of_member_states
The UK's GDP growth has on average been around the top of the major western member states. Discounting Ireland as an outlier (that 2015 growth is incredible, can anyone explain how that happened?), the UK was one of the strongest growing wealthy nations.

@lifestooshort123

I live in Cornwall, i could take you to a lot of people who speak like this, in private, about Black and Asian people.

Its simply unfair to judge a nation on the very few people you happen to know, especially as eastern europe has only just emerged (in historical terms) from life under the Soviets and immigration from Africa etc is very new to them.
Look at how the British treated blacks in the 50s and 60s?

Isn't UK growth distorted by asset prices i.e property and shares/ dividends paid in $ and our weak exchange rate benefiting this.

@Pukkatea

As our GDP is already slightly above the average of the EU27 after 4 years of economic damage, if it was less than average 4 years from now I'd consider that a pretty catastrophic failure.

On what basis has it been economically damaging?

@jasjas1973 why judge it just based on our relationship with the EU? The EU is only a small part of the world in terms of population and GDP. There are countries in Europe who are not in the EU what if we become closer to them than the EU is, is that success?

GDP irrelevant. Success for our country would be reduced inequality and poverty, better health and education, better environmental protection, innovative and forward thinking changes for example greener house building, greener transport. Sustainable farming. Reforms to housing to make tenants secure to prevent spiralling house prices. Success would be driving into a big city and not seeing derelict buildings, slum like housing and beggars everywhere.
I also value freedom of movement highly but would be willing to trade it for the above.
I am a remained but if the above results within the next 10 years I will readily admit I was completely wrong!
Increased GDP is a red herring. It just means more money for a very few who are rich already, and does not affect the lives of 99.9% of people in this country.

@Charlottejbt

Remainers? Absolutely nothing because then they could still fecking whinge about a democratic process and all the morons who voted for Brexit just got lucky.

Nope, the morons are doubly unlucky. Firstly because they are morons and secondly because they are about to see their cost of living skyrocket while their jobs move abroad. It's the young I feel most sorry for.

Perhaps some 700 of those "morons" saw their jobs move abroad between 2007 and 2010 when Cadbury's closed their Somerdale factory in Keynsham and transferred production to Poland. Or perhaps they were the 1,400 workers who lost their jobs in 2012 when the European Investment Bank gave Ford a loan to move production to Turkey. Membership of the EU didn't do the working classes many favours. Still, the wealthy middle classes could employ a cheap nanny so what did they care?

There's plenty of inward investment coming to the UK. The Belgian pharmaceutical firm UCB put £1bn into a new UK campus. Toyota have said that they will continue to export cars from the UK into the EU. Anglo-Dutch giant Unilever have decided to consolidate their headquarters in the UK rather than the Netherlands. Nissan have decided to streamline production in the UK and close their Barcelona plant. Not much of a sign of half of Canary Wharf decamping to Frankfurt either.

@FirstOfficerDouglas I agree racism is a much worse problem in parts of the EU, looking at the support for Geert Wilders or Marine Le Pen as examples. However, that does not justify leaving the EU.

[quote SchrodingersBox]@jasjas1973 why judge it just based on our relationship with the EU? The EU is only a small part of the world in terms of population and GDP. There are countries in Europe who are not in the EU what if we become closer to them than the EU is, is that success?[/quote]
You asked what remainers would see as a successful Brexit & i told you what it is for me.
Our relationship with europe is very important, its our closest neighbour and one of the worlds wealthiest trading blocs.
Its GDP of over 16 trillion, is 1/6th of the worlds economy, bigger than China and not far short of the USA.

What major countries are not the EU and don't come under the sphere of influence of Russia?

The UK has had a large GDP for many years, so what? what has it given its peoples? a brilliant NHS, world class transport? cheap and well constructed housing? a fantastic education service? no.

its just made wealthy people even richer and the rest of us poorer.

@jasjas1973 I'm trying to understand, that's why I'm asking. If good relations with the EU matter to you more than anywhere else I'm not judging. Switzerland, Turkey and Norway are the big ones. I just wonder if we develop better relations with those countries than the EU what does that show.

@SnackSizeRaisin so in essence if quality of life has improved for the population. I'd agree with that although some of the things are harder to measure/compare than others.

I just wonder if we develop better relations with those countries than the EU what does that show
(Switzerland, Turkey, Norway)

Switzerland and Norway are in the single market and have freedom of movement. So we are not going to better that either as individuals or a country. Turkey is in the customs union. We are in neither the sm nor cu.

Independent Scotland, United Ireland - that would be one of the biggest successes of Brexit.

As you are aware, Norway and Switzerland are in EFTA/EAA & have very close relations with the EU, they will not put that in jeopardy and seek to become close to a country bent on destroying the EU, which seems to be the premise of your question?

Turkey is a predominantly Asian country and is increasingly looking to the East, we can of course have good relations with all countries.

But as i said, i do not hold as much importance to GDP as you appear to, we need to redistribute wealth in this country, having a footballer dictating social welfare policy is beyond parody.

How could isolationism, a reduction of rights and of freedoms be a success?
This. It's not all about money. My children has lost the ability to freely study and work in Europe, all so some whingey old farts can claim back their borders and all the billions in child benefit that goes to Poland... The rest of the world has moved on in the last almost-50 years, why are we hell bent on going back to where we were at the start of the 70s?

I think within a few years, we will seek to, once again, be in EFTA.

The same rights, benefits and opportunities for my children that I have enjoyed my whole life...

@SchrodingersBox we are led to believe a lot of people voted brexit due to poverty, lack of opportunity etc which rightly or wrongly they blamed on the EU. So I would hope that success would look like an improvement for those people (less well educated, in unskilled or low paid jobs, many living in areas where old fashioned industry has failed). If success just means the rich get richer, maybe due to erosion of workers rights and environmental controls, decreased corporate taxation, probably increased immigration from India and China to do those low paid jobs, then will these voters see it as a success? Of course the Tories and their pals will think it's great but they are a tiny minority.