To ask what would people judge as Brexit success

[SchrodingersBox]

"For years, all supposedly sensible pundits have told us Brexit spells doom for Britain – now they must eat their words" Editorial in Bild today.

If UK GDP has grown by more than EU GDP by the end of this parliament, due to be Dec 2024 but probably May 2024, would people who are anti Brexit accept that it has been successful? If not what would it take?

It is typical that, for ‘hard remainers’ nothing would show success. The OP is an interesting hypothetical.

For me success would be:

The U.K. continuing to be a respected voice in international affairs.

The U.K. remaining and building upon its reputation for academic and technological excellence.

The U.K. rebuilding an industrial base whilst diversifying its international trade.

I was personally a reluctant remainers, as felt the cost of disentanglement would be more than it was worth. However, despite many remainers gloating that we had dropped from the 5th largest economy to the 7th and were in free fall, we are back to the 5th and forecast to hold on to it a while yet.

There is much to admire in the U.K., as well as W lot we could do better. However, Brexit is an opportunity to work damn hard to achieve great things. If we rest upon our laurels, we will gradually decline to the ‘sick man of Europe’ again.

The next few years will be interesting..,

@lifestooshort123 - Nobody is denying that there are racists in the UK but to hear some Hungarian acquaintances of ours use disgusting racist language in their everyday speech is shocking. They casually refer to black people as lazy scum and n*s and laugh at us when we remonstrate. Acquaintances, never friends.

The UK is only country in Europe where I have encountered xenophobic abuse. I know quite a number of eastern Europeans, have travelled and worked with them and never encountered any issues.

There is much to admire in the U.K.,

Definitely.

But some people seem to think that the best things about the UK are that we won the war, had an empire, and don't need anyone else.

Whereas the things we are actually good at mostly rely on close collaboration with colleagues in other countries!

How would GDP measure the fact that my children have had their opportunities to travel work and live across the continent taken away?

Standard of living. If in 5, 7, 10 years' time we look at our peers in Western Europe and think we have it at least as good as them in terms of comfort, opportunities, environment, health, old age care. social cohesion and security, we did ok. If we look at them and they all seem to have pulled ahead of us since Brexit, we were idiots.

Listening,

In what way is that actually true?

I have friends who are American, Japanese and Indian, all living and working in the U.K.

U.K. and EU universities also have many overseas students. We have not tied a barge to the U.K. and towed it into the Pacific.

The Erasmus scheme was a subsidy to the middle classes, many privately educated. The European universities won’t stop accepting U.K. pupils post Brexit, it will just be dearer. And I believe we are planning a replacement scheme in any event.

People who think Brexit is going to be a success need to define:

1. By what criteria is its 'success' going to be measured?
2. What are the milestones at which this success or failure will be monitored, to see if it is on track?
3. What is the contingency plan for if it is adjudged a failure?

This would be the minimum required for any new project, usually.

We don't need to do it for you. You need to own your shit.

(But if you are asking me, I personally don't think GDP alone cuts it. That's not what it's all about.)

Phoenix
The Erasmus scheme was a subsidy to the middle classes, many privately educated. The European universities won’t stop accepting U.K. pupils post Brexit, it will just be dearer. And I believe we are planning a replacement scheme in any event.
One of my children did Erasmus.
Your opinion is utterly untrue.
The whole point of Erasmus is that it was open to ALL, at no cost to the families.
The vast, vast majority of the Erasmus friends with whom my child is still in contact went to State funded schooling across the continent.

Listening,

Slightly old survey but backs up what I said. 2/3 of students in Erasmus had at least one parent who was an ‘executive, professional or technician’

www.immagic.com/eLibrary/ARCHIVES/GENERAL/EU_EC/E060800O.pdf

As you have told me my opinion is utterly untrue, I assume you have something beyond anecdote to back it up.

I'd say it needs to be measured in things like

Quality of life across the whole population
Good educational results across the whole population
Low levels of unemployment and high levels of opportunity
A general sense of optimism and positivity across the population
Good standard of living, high animal welfare standards, security in employment

That sort of thing.

I'm worried about passporting going. I work in the financial sector which is one of our biggest sectors and there seems to be little clarity about what next. We were used as a base for the rest of the world to trade in Europe. Ireland popular also. I suspect some big employers in the capital might up sticks.
Lloyds of London opened its first ever branch a year or 2 ago, in Belgium I think it was.
The loss of tranches of this to countries in the EU must be on the cards.

And of course people who voted remain aren't desperate for it to be awful. We have our own families, children, lives. I want it to succeed, obviously. I'm a screaming lefty, the idea I would want people to suffer in order to be 'proved right' is a childish accusation that says more about the person who makes it.

@TheReluctantPhoenix

Listening,

Slightly old survey but backs up what I said. 2/3 of students in Erasmus had at least one parent who was an ‘executive, professional or technician’

www.immagic.com/eLibrary/ARCHIVES/GENERAL/EU_EC/E060800O.pdf

As you have told me my opinion is utterly untrue, I assume you have something beyond anecdote to back it up.

2006 report

the old Erasmus scheme before they changed the rules
for Erasmus+

nuff said

For me it would take a massive reduction in economic inequality in the UK, no reduction in workers' rights whatsoever, proper levelling up between the North and the South of England, a reduction in racist and xenophobic rhetoric in the press, removal of the 'no recourse to public funds' for any immigrant who is employed in the UK (because if you are working and paying taxes like a UK national, you should have equal treatment in all things). I would want to see the UK genuinely becoming a better place.

It won't happen.

I think any benefits will take a goodly long time to show, especially following COVID and how hard we've been hit.

I supposed if the EU dissolved in a mass in-fight and we're not in it (my dad's fear, and why he voted leave) not being in would be a benefit, but TBH if it does I'm not sure if we'll be able to tell if it was precipitated by the UK leaving or would have happened anyway.

I'm completely puzzled by Johnson's argument that there will be 'less red tape' - surely there will be massively more that we didn't need when part of EU?

£350 million extra to the NHS every week.
That’s what the Leave campaign promised. Until I see that, Brexit will not be a success.

Oh, and a reinstating of mine and my children’s rights to live and work in at least 27 other countries.
Tariff-free trade with our nearest neighbours continuing.
The UK continuing to be a central financial services provider.
No reduction in quality of products imported into this country.
Vital information sharing with our nearest neighbours.

More money to the NHS.

Ownership of the fact that many of the reasons people voted leave (immigration / lack of housing / lack of services) were nothing to do with the EU but stupid decisions by the government. It will be interesting to see how they manage without a scapegoat...

I'm not interested in whether the UK's GDP growth is greater than that of the EU. I think that if the UK can now make their own laws, decide who comes into our country and who doesn't and we can forge trading relationships with other countries without the permission of EU countries, Brexit is clearly successful.

@Calmandmeasured1

I'm not interested in whether the UK's GDP growth is greater than that of the EU. I think that if the UK can now make their own laws, decide who comes into our country and who doesn't and we can forge trading relationships with other countries without the permission of EU countries, Brexit is clearly successful.

Already could make our own laws. Already could decide eco comes into our country and doesn’t. Successive Governments decided not to enforce this right. All economic research throughout history has shown that the most successful trading relationships are with countries closest geographically (for really really obvious reasons). Oh. And EVERY trade deal will involve compromise which will include the imposition of rules and restrictions between the trading countries.

But sure, replicating what we already have but with more red tape, more expense, more rules, more logistical problems and with massive economic loss is clearly going to be a success.

@TheReluctantPhoenix

Listening,

In what way is that actually true?

I have friends who are American, Japanese and Indian, all living and working in the U.K.

U.K. and EU universities also have many overseas students. We have not tied a barge to the U.K. and towed it into the Pacific.

The Erasmus scheme was a subsidy to the middle classes, many privately educated. The European universities won’t stop accepting U.K. pupils post Brexit, it will just be dearer. And I believe we are planning a replacement scheme in any event.

So Erasmus was bad because it mainly benefited middle class people. So it's better if we take it away, so it will be dearer for UK students to study abroad, thereby excluding working class students completely???

For me, the best Brexit would be a short Brexit. I'm hoping a future government tries to rejoin the SM/CU when no one's looking, but as they say, it's the hope that kills you.

Your measure is a blunt instrument.

Gdp higher at what cost? If charter cities are brought in and the wild west ensues, with stripping of citizens rights and higher inequality for a larger % of population, gdp becomes irrelevant.

I think the brexit that most leavers want is a naive one. The realistic brexit is the one of lower rights, no minimum wage and gung ho entrepreneurs. Some will benefit at the expense of the majority. Gdp may be higher but most will be poorer and or have less security.

If it's not this, why was Rees Morgan et al pushing it and not telling you why apart from mythical sovereignty.

Yabu - for me it would take 1. Return of frictionless trade Ie cross border trade with the EU without all the additional costly admin burden of the customs paperwork now required 2. The trade deal to be extended to cover services especially financial services 3. U.K. professional qualifications to continue to be recognised in the EU (currently this won't be the case from tomorrow) 4. Influence over the EU regulations which we are still required to follow to some extent as part of the trade deal.

Listening,

‘Nuff said’ is not evidence or even argument.

The Turing scheme will apparently benefit twice as many students.

And I find it reasonable, in a world where the wealth gap is opening further, to question schemes where general taxes are channelled to the wealthiest and already well educated families rather than encouraging social mobility.

I saw Farage's tweet, about how he campaigned for twenty-five years.

I think Brexit will have been a success if in twenty years' time there is majority support for remaining this distant from Europe.

Brexit needs to make Britain better - not just for the racist pensioners I spoke to on the pro-Brexit stall in my area, but for the working population and those soon to enter the workforce/voting population.

One of the women on that stall in 2016 said my son would be able to get a job on a fishing boat like her husband had fifty years ago - what an exciting vision for the future!!

We will see. I think Brexit is a strategic error in terms of influence, global power, opportunity and economics. I will be very happy to be proved wrong.

@nosswith

There is no such thing. We are already economically worse off as a result. Money is not the only measure of success in any case.

Brexit has led to Boris Johnson as Prime Minister. The worst option the Tories could ever have chosen.

exactly , nobody has won . leavers are would never be happy because he did a deal and judging by comments iv read elsewhere they didnt want one at all . and we are now out of the eu , between brexit , covid and with boris johnson at the helm i feel we are screwed