To ask what would people judge as Brexit success

[SchrodingersBox]

"For years, all supposedly sensible pundits have told us Brexit spells doom for Britain – now they must eat their words" Editorial in Bild today.

If UK GDP has grown by more than EU GDP by the end of this parliament, due to be Dec 2024 but probably May 2024, would people who are anti Brexit accept that it has been successful? If not what would it take?

@NiceGerbil

And of course people who voted remain aren't desperate for it to be awful. We have our own families, children, lives. I want it to succeed, obviously. I'm a screaming lefty, the idea I would want people to suffer in order to be 'proved right' is a childish accusation that says more about the person who makes it.

this , we all have to hope it will succeed ,otherwise we all suffer together ,

Nothing would make up for losing freedom of movement, but if the pound were to recover to pre-Brexit levels it would help.

Hilary,

Why would you want a strong pound?!

A weaker pound makes us more competitive globally. Having an independent currency is a great adjustment mechanism to economic shocks., which is why Southern Europe has been mired in an endless stagnation due to entering the Euro at too high a rate.

My bet is gbp will recover in January to 1.15-1.2 vs the a euro when all the protective options have expired.

A weaker pound makes us more competitive globally. Having an independent currency is a great adjustment mechanism to economic shocks., which is why Southern Europe has been mired in an endless stagnation due to entering the Euro at too high a rate

This old chestnut!
We import almost all our raw materials, the decline of the £ (against a basket of currencies) over the last 50 years or so, hasn't helped exports at all.
We have & always have had an independent currency but we live in an era of zero interest rates, we no longer have those "levers" to devalue as we used to have to do on a regular basis.

Nice to compare the UK to Greece etc and not Germany?

Blue,

Net net, a weaker currency makes exports more competitive. We need to make and export more.

Remember the good old ERM, when we tried to shadow Germany? It was unsustainable.

Germany has been a massive recipient of growth due to the Euro, as its currency is seriously undervalued relative to its productivity.

@TheReluctantPhoenix
Because I live in mainland Europe and have lost a great deal of my pension income.
And I don't know anyone who voted for Brexit.

Erasmus was open to a far wider social spectrum than just students, like apprentices, school and community groups and academics. The new scheme, if it happens, will just entrench inequality.

Not,

How do you know that? I am not sure the Turing scheme has even been fully fleshed out yet, but you seem to know it will be worse than Erasumus for social mobility??

@TheReluctantPhoenix

Not,

How do you know that? I am not sure the Turing scheme has even been fully fleshed out yet, but you seem to know it will be worse than Erasumus for social mobility??

It will be worse. There was nothing wrong with Erasmus. Erasmus was not a driver of social inequality FFS.

Why hasn’t it been fully fleshed out? Is it possibly because last year Boris Johnson was promising we would stay in Erasmus abd had to pull something out of his bloviating arse at the last second ? Anyway as presented it will be bad for social mobility as the travel, enrollment and accommodation costs in the countries it targets will be far higher.

And even if it were true that it were a middle class luxury then the obvious answer was to widen participation in MFL upstream in primary and secondary.

Reluctant

As i said, the decline of sterling hasn't improved our competitiveness, so there is no evidence for your assertion.
Most of our exports are made with imports, a devalued currency increases these costs.
It also makes all other imports more expensive, so reducing the amounts we have to spend in our consumer based economy, which reduces internal demand.

Germany pre euro, was an industrial powerhouse, this has carried on within the eurozone.

Good luck making more! what on earth does that even mean? just a meaningless soundbite.
If it were that easy, we'd have done decades ago, as would every other country in the world.

Id like to see the brexiteer promises come true:

Saving vast sums of money from our contribution to EU budget and investing in the NHS.

Being able to outstrip our pre covid economic performance (not just the EU average) in GDP growth, job creation, inbound investment.

Great British jobs for British people. Not skills shortages and costs rising in industries that cant afford it like in farming and food service that used to rely on cheap EU labour.

That by our differentiation from the EU we increase our standing on the world stage and not find our diplomatic position reduced in importance due to lack of influence in a bigger global power.

Our industries thriving,increased productivity compare to our historically abysmal performance. Replenish jobs lost by laying waste to the automotive, manufacturing and services industries.

Retaining our position as a global finance hub, not losing out to rising competition from the EU.

Food costs staying low and still being able to access high quality and wide variety of food as we always have in the EU.

Sterling outperforming the Euro so that when I go on holiday it isn't costing me the arm and a leg it has cost since the Brexit vote. I used to love a cheap holiday.

Stopping supporting growth in say eastern Europe and investing in poor parts of the UK to see rising standard of living. Levelling up north South divide would be a great way of proving this.

Not having to bail out Italian banks or other horrendous costs that the EU have to club together for in the coming years. Surely this is a benefit we might see with covid bound to result in some EU nations needing a bail out. Let's hope it's not us that need it eh?

Continuing to cooperate with our near neighbours in the interests of national security. Not seeing a weakened EU by our actions which allows the further rise of Russia and China or other powers that weakens our standing on the world stage.

It not being a PITA to travel to the EU. We were told things would still be easy.

Justifying the epic cost of Brexit by financial reward and rising standards of living.

I'm really looking forward to housing becoming affordable as I recall a lot of justification of Brexit in 2016 based on people who thought they would be able to afford a house after Brexit.

Retention of employment rights and improvements compared to the EU. Let's use our sovereignty to improve life for the poor people who voted for Brexit. Definitely not seeing a degradation of our rights to the enrichment of large corporates and Tory mates.

Oh and great trade deals with non-EU nations of course. Not ones trying to patch up our existing trading relations to get back to where we were in the EU. All whilst maintaining quality and safety standards naturally.

The nhs being off the table in the famed uk-us trade deal. We dont want to end up with American style drug and healthcare costs. Food hygiene and safety standards being maintained in the same deal.

Fair?

Oh and I forgot some very important points:
Maintaining peace in ROI / Ireland

UK Nations still staying together not resulting in the Break-Up of the UK

Gibraltar to remain a UK territory.

We wouldn't want Brexit at a cost to our geographical standing would we? That would be madness.

@Wiredforsound

Independent Scotland, United Ireland - that would be one of the biggest successes of Brexit.

Not independent Scotland please.

Intercepting dinghies and returning to sender. U. K don't have to allow them to land, nor pay for their housing, food, medical, interpreter and legal costs. U. K don't allow unknown quantities to swamp us. We are locked down. Why have we been allowing unknown and untested to enter then be scattered all over the U. K? Now we don't have to.

Four pages in and nobody considers fish a measure of success? Gosh.

YABU simply on the basis of suggesting that growth in GDP is the only meaningful measurement of success.

@Chimeraforce what is it you are thinking that is going to happen to the people in dinghies now then? Is a naval officer going to pierce the dinghy and let it sink?

@Chimeraforce

Intercepting dinghies and returning to sender. U. K don't have to allow them to land, nor pay for their housing, food, medical, interpreter and legal costs. U. K don't allow unknown quantities to swamp us. We are locked down. Why have we been allowing unknown and untested to enter then be scattered all over the U. K? Now we don't have to.

Since Brexit is going to be hugely successful, why shouldn't we help those in desperate need? Or are we really a nation of pretty, selfish, narrow-minded, racist bigots who think it'll never happen to them?

Also, we never had to let anyone untested in, neither did anyone else in the EU, as evidenced by France et al last week.

@Chimeraforce

Intercepting dinghies and returning to sender. U. K don't have to allow them to land, nor pay for their housing, food, medical, interpreter and legal costs. U. K don't allow unknown quantities to swamp us. We are locked down. Why have we been allowing unknown and untested to enter then be scattered all over the U. K? Now we don't have to.

Agreed, we can now machine gun them from positions on the 'cliffs and ram them as they cross into UK waters.....

At last a firm benefit of Brexit... We can now murder refugees.

@Chimeraforce - Why have we been allowing unknown and untested to enter then be scattered all over the U. K? Now we don't have to.

You're not really doing much here to dispel the notion that leave voters are ignorant and ill-informed.

The UK has always had the ability to control entry. They chose not to. France, Ireland and many other countries have demonstrated this control very well over the past 2 weeks.

@Echobelly

I think any benefits will take a goodly long time to show, especially following COVID and how hard we've been hit.

I supposed if the EU dissolved in a mass in-fight and we're not in it (my dad's fear, and why he voted leave) not being in would be a benefit, but TBH if it does I'm not sure if we'll be able to tell if it was precipitated by the UK leaving or would have happened anyway.

I'm completely puzzled by Johnson's argument that there will be 'less red tape' - surely there will be massively more that we didn't need when part of EU?

I supposed if the EU dissolved in a mass in-fight and we're not in it (my dad's fear, and why he voted leave) not being in would be a benefit, but TBH if it does I'm not sure if we'll be able to tell if it was precipitated by the UK leaving or would have happened anyway.

And this is Brexit, hoping the EU becomes a failure oh its definitely disguised in a false nationalistic narrative but has had nothing more concrete than we must believe

OP, for your measure of success to work you'd have to demonstrate that the same future higher-than-EU-average growth could not have been achieved with the UK still in the EU, without all the political and diplomatic damage from leaving. Otherwise you're just falling for the dishonest politicians who try to blame negatives on the EU and claim positives for the UK.

Economic performance and policy varies widely between EU member states and in the recent past the UK has had years with higher growth than Germany while both countries were in the EU (under a Labour government, too - I'm thinking of the late 90s when Germany had a massive hangover from reunification while in the UK the 'knowledge industries' were growing). EU average is a misleading measure as it includes countries s.a. Bulgaria that are hardly in the same league.

It is very unlikely that the kind of redistributive, productivity-increasing and poverty-busting measures that the UK (I think) needs for meaningful economic improvements could not have been instituted while in the EU.

The thing I find interesting here is that a lot of remainers are saying Brexit can only be considered a success if things that were getting worse with the UK in the EU actually turn around.

e.g. inequality - the Gini coefficient of the UK was 25 in 1978. It's now 34.7, indicating that inequality has gotten worse ( www.statista.com/statistics/872472/gini-index-of-the-united-kingdom/ ).
child poverty - gone through the roof ( cpag.org.uk/recent-history-uk-child-poverty )
housing - house prices have doubled (inflation adjusted prices) - www.economicshelp.org/blog/5709/housing/market/