For clarity I didn't vote in the referendum. I have serious concerns about the ability for the EU to successfully implement EU wide laws that work for each of the member states, and that going forward there were likely to be some serious problems - but I didn't think the Leave campaign was an accurate refection of what would happen.
So I'm probably classer as a Brexiteer, although I'd probably say i'm in no mans land.
The problem we have at the moment is that this is not really a trade negotiation, it's a political negotiation.
The UK is no longer an empire, but it was a big part of the EU. It was a rather large financial contributor and was one of the founding members.
The UK's decision to leave does have some ramifications for the smaller countries, who are finding that being in the EU is not always a panacea.
Greece have had major financial problems, and being tied into the Euro has made it more difficult for them. It may have been better for Greece to revert to the drachma, but it wouldn't politically look good for the EU and would compromise the confidence in the Euro. So Greece are having to deal with financial issues and bear the brunt of the migrant crisis, for which a lot of its supposed partners are unwilling to "take their share".
Hungary and Poland's current stance is not really compatible with the EU's values, but they can't be forced to align with France or Germany as they are technically separate states. Turkey would like to join, and the EU are refusing, this is a harder stance to take given Hungary and Poland's political views are starting to lean more Turkey's way than the EU's.
Hungary and Poland leaving is discouraged because it weakens the image that the EU is all powerful and that the member states are all better if they stick together.
Covid 19 has just emphasised the fact that in reality, when the chips are down, the member states don't work that well together. Look at the problems Italy had, Germany took some patients from Italy at the crisis point, but there wasn't really any serious help, even from those countries less affected by Covid 19.
The EU still has not approved the Pfizer vaccine. It's not just about the UK getting in there first (someone had to be first) but now Canada, the USA, Kuwait, Qatar etc have all approved it, but the EU machine is still turning slowly. They don't think the EU will get the vaccine until January now, a month after the UK began vaccinating.
Hungary wanted the Russian vaccine and was convinced to wait with the rest of the EU. They might be regretting that decision now. Whilst Hungary technically can approve emergency use of the russian vaccine even within the EU, there is a lot of political pressure not to, so the EU is seen to be cohesive.
The UK is very close to the EU, and is going to be competition for the EU - so agreeing to a good trade deal for both parties is politically difficult.
The reality is that the deal on the table may well be, for the UK, worse than a No Deal. There is absolutely no point in giving up a seat at the table, but being bound by its decisions.
We can't decide to stay within the EU because the electorate will continue to vote for Brexit, and we'll end up with someone like the BNP in charge, who have no other policies, or ideas on how to run the country, other than to crash out of the EU.
If the UK signs up to this deal, they have a deal, and the job is done.
If they take the option of no deal - a trade deal can always be signed at a later stage.
I'm reluctant to say it, because obviously a trade deal which works pretty well for both sides was the preferable option, but it may be better to walk away now, and return to trade talks once both side have had time to accept that the UK is not part of the EU and cannot be forced to agree for its future laws.
No other country has had to agree to abide by the EU's laws, without a say in the laws themselves. That is because they are "outsiders" and it's a ridiculous request and would not be accepted in any independent trade deal.
No deal is painful for the UK AND the member states of the EU. No deal will not be popular with the citizens of the member states, regardless of what Brussels thinks. The politicians in the member states will need to account to their citizens for the choices made, which will apply pressure.
Spain for example - they export a lot of food to the UK, and tourism from the UK, particularly expats who set up second homes or relocate permanently there, is very important to their economy. They won't want it to be harder for the UK tourists to come to them than go to Morocco for example. They want to keep their share of tourism, especially post Covid.
The trade deal on the table has to be rejected by the UK, because it makes no logical sense.
Fishing is important because the way the EU want fishing rights to run is contrary to us not being a member state, not because it's worth so much money to us. The comment that the waters are ours, but not the fish within in them, is ludicrous.
To save losing face, and to deter other people from leaving, the EU has made the deal so onerous that it can't be accepted.
The UK do now need to say no, and to walk away. Both parties need time and space with the UK as a non EU member to process what the terms of a trade deal really need to be.