To question what Biden's win means for any UK trade deals (economy)?

[Officebox]

I'm delighted about Joe Biden's and Kamala Harris' election win! Great news! The world seems to be happy about this result too! Yay!!!

However, reading reports about the future of UK and US relations following this change in power at the White House, AIBU to be a bit worried for Britain?

The UK is in the middle of Brexit trade negotiations that will impact the economy. Can/will the Biden win impact trade negotiation deals one way or another?

Boris Johnson congratulates Joe Biden on US election win 'Special relationship' may face downgrade...

"They won't be seen as natural allies: Joe Biden, the seasoned Democrat, and Boris Johnson, the bombastic Brexiteer.
In looking at how their future relationship might work, it's worth considering the past. Specifically that seminal year, 2016, when Donald Trump won the White House and the UK voted to leave the EU. Both Mr Biden and his boss at the time, Barack Obama, made no secret they preferred another outcome on Brexit." - Jessica Parker, Political Correspondent

A special relationship or back of the queue: What could a Biden or Trump victory mean for the UK economy after Brexit?

Brexit and the US election: What the Trump v Biden result could mean for the UK

And many more...

What's everyone else's thoughts?

@ListeningQuietly

Are you being wilfully ignorant again?

This was my post:

Trade deals and friendship with Russia and China for us then

And your response was spot the person who has never looked at a globe

@BritWifeinUSA

Biden will mean nothing to anyone. He won’t even last the 4 years. It’s Kamala Harris you need to be worried about, if anything.

In which case we are twice screwed ... we'll just swap a POTUS with Irish heritage for a POTUS with Indian heritage. I wonder what stories her grandfather told of British occupation of India ....

@DGRossetti

But wasn't out trade with the EU gradually declining to the point where it was unlikely to be sustainable in the future anyway?

No.

I can't find the original article I read months ago as searching brings up thousands of results, but there are lots of opinions from economists that the EU is not the healthy trading partner many people seem to assume.

But the share of UK exports of goods and services going to the EU has fallen, from 54% in 2000 to 43% in 2016.

Most of the decline in the EU’s share of UK exports is due to goods, not services.

The US is the country from which the UK earns the most through trade. Exports to the US in 2016 were worth £100 billion, more than twice as much as exports to any other country.

While the value of UK exports to the EU has fallen between 2011 and 2016 (from £243 billion to £236 billion), the UK is increasingly exporting to the US. Exports to the US rose by more than 26% over the same period.

www.ons.gov.uk/businessindustryandtrade/internationaltrade/articles/whodoestheuktradewith/2017-02-21

The EU is a Major Drag on the UK economy

UK trade is already shifting away from the EU, with around 55% of UK exports now to non-EU countries. But this process could be accelerated by freer trade with the non-EU world and reduced burdens from EU regulation.The EU promises to be even more of a drag in the next twenty years, with 94% of world GDP growth set to be outside the EU from 2017-2040. Against this background it makes sense for the UK to orient its economy more towards parts of the world where trade and productivity growth are, and will be, faster.

briefingsforbritain.co.uk/the-eu-is-a-major-drag-on-the-uk-economy

EU on brink: How bloc is 'beginning gradual decline' as UK exit looms

Writing on the London School of Economics’ (LSE) blog in July 2018, political author Hans Vollaard claimed: “Rather than experiencing a sudden collapse, the EU might instead suffer a slow decline.”

He added: “The best-case scenario may be one in which the EU continues to limp ahead in the years to come, but with many members rather grudgingly accepting it as the least unattractive option.”

www.google.com/amp/s/www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1231320/brexit-news-uk-european-union-gradual-decline-on-brink-dissatisfaction-spt/amp

Now tell us what all that means in terms of quality of life for ordinary people in Britain, not decontextualised profits for the global rich.

Joe Biden has made it very clear that if the UK mess with international laws or the Good Friday Agreement or both, they have no chance of any sort of a trade deal with the US when the UK leaves the EU.

So, the ball is well and truly in the Johnson court now.

I can't find the original article I read months ago as searching brings up thousands of results, but there are lots of opinions from economists that the EU is not the healthy trading partner many people seem to assume.

Good job Brexit is going so well, then, isn't it ? Otherwise we'd be well fucked.

I'm wholly unsure what's best for the UK, but I'm never very convinced by public opinion as most people's reactions seem to often be kneejerk reactions based more on emotion than real scrutiny.

For example, I believe far more people detest Trump for his 'pussy grabbing' comments than his policies. Of course, having a misogynist in the Whitehouse ain't great, but I don't think many people really reflect on what is better for the UK trade, and would probably vote for an equally inept politician as long as they 'seemed' less bigoted. Like those claiming to be 'overjoyed' that Biden has won. I don't think he's a great option, and with his 'Buy American' straplines and complete political disparity with BJ, I'm not sure he's going to be great for UK trade.

I believe the same to be true with Brexit. I know so many people whinging about it who know much less about economics than myself (and I'm hardly an expert). It often just seems to be some vague idea about Brexiteers being 'far right' and Brexit not being as inclusive as staying within the EU, smattered with lots of cries of 'think of the children'.

I know so many people whinging about it who know much less about economics than myself (and I'm hardly an expert).

What about the many economists they’re basing their views on? The vast majority of economists have been clear that brexit will be detrimental for the country.

I'm not sure he's going to be great for UK trade.

If you thought Trump was going to be great for UK trade you haven’t been paying the slightest bit of attention.

Good job Brexit is going so well, then, isn't it ? Otherwise we'd be well fucked.

It's far too early to have any indication of the net long term effects. From my observations, though, the people I know who voted Brexit seem to be more successful, often business owners etc, and a lot of the people whinging the loudest seem to be lefty types who don't otherwise take much interest in economics. I know who I think is more likely to generate wealth for the UK!

I certainly do detest Trumo for his misogyny as I have direct experience of misogyny in action and therefore recognise that sexism is potentially life-threatening to me and mine. It’s not something I will ever discount. On economics, there is a difference between imports and exports. Exports are declining because Britain has less and less to export. Successive governments have, rightly or wrongly and I believe wrongly, downplayed local production and consumption in favour of globalised trade for trades sake. Britain does not have the resources to compete in globalised production, not compared to existing ‘developing countries’ with very low environmental and welfare standards. The latter control quality of life here as much as does trade. There are a lot of factors involved and I don’t pretend to understand all of them.

If you thought Trump was going to be great for UK trade you haven’t been paying the slightest bit of attention.

Well, Trump was half-British, likes Boris, agrees with Brexit, and talked of 'a special relationship'. Biden is at the other end of the political spectrum to Boris, disagrees with Brexit, and uses the slogan 'Buy American'.

Thing is, lots of people seem to want Brexit to fail because it will prove them right.

the people I know who voted Brexit seem to be more successful, often business owners etc, and a lot of the people whinging the loudest seem to be lefty types who don't otherwise take much interest in economics

Yes I’m sure that’s why all the big urban centres that generate the most wealth in the UK voted to remain. All those lefty types

Worth a read www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/business/2020/sep/07/sterling-slumps-as-leaked-plan-stokes-no-deal-brexit-fears

It's far too early to have any indication of the net long term effects ahh yes I’ll get back to you in errr 50 years perhaps.

In the meantime, well a handful of weeks to be precise, we will face spiralling food costs and much more expensive imports, won’t we? And those that are already struggling or on the breadline will be pretty screwed.

Well, Trump was half-British, likes Boris, agrees with Brexit, and talked of 'a special relationship'.

He’s the most protectionist US president there’s ever been and talking about a ‘special relationship’ was hot air that suited him. Did you miss all that?

I'm politically moderate but truth be told I don't trust lefties with the economy. There is much wrong with big business but it's the capitalists who are generally the movers and shakers and will generate the most wealth and employment opportunities by proxy.

I'm loving the idea that the UK is somehow between the USA and China
spot the person who has never looked at a globe

Whoosh!

The US has always wanted a buffer between itself and Russia. That's why it has airbases here and in Germany and pressurised the EU to include the old eastern block countries. Putin is pissed off about this, hence annexing bits of Ukraine. A desperate U.K. (with no trade deals with the EU and US) might allow Russia (or China) to have military bases on U.K. soil, for example. A desperate U.K. forced to sell itself to Russia (or China) is not in the USA's (or the EU's) best interests.

(I don't think allying ourselves with China or Russia is in our best interests either but the choice isn't as binary as the narrative on here - which is do as Joe Biden says or else).

But they don’t. The biggest employers are small and medium enterprises servicing local markets, not global capitalists.

Gosh you’re losing me here Lord. Who are these ‘lefties’ that are in charge of the economy?

The hilarious thing was Sky (Adam Bolton I think?) trying to persuade viewers that Biden was English.

Pretty sure he has a mixture of ancestry, but 100% certain it's irrelevant. His biggest chunk of ancestry is from Ireland and he identifies as Irish-American.

I'm sure he will enter negotiations on a trade deal. He has a lot of experience in international relations.

But of course he's going to play hardball on the GFA. Why on earth wouldn't he?

Pretty sure he has a mixture of ancestry, but 100% certain it's irrelevant. His biggest chunk of ancestry is from Ireland and he identifies as Irish-American.

I read that the other part of his ancestry (paternal grandparents, I think) were from Suffolk. He certainly seems to publicly identify as Irish American, although that may well just be to court the Irish American (traditionally strong Democrats) vote.

@ListeningQuietly

You are mistaken if you don’t realise that Russia and China are not watching this closely and working out how they can take advantage / destabilise the West.

I wouldn’t put anything past this government and if the EU and US decide to take a hard line with the U.K. then we may well see closer ties with Russia or China. Something that none of the U.K., EU or USA really want.

No it's definitely not just for show. He was raised in that culture. When he was younger he used to say his hero was Wolfe Tone.

RTÉ news last night closed with him reading a Seamus Heaney poem. He's not making this shit up. Shocker, I know but not every American is secretly in love with England. In fact, it's rather the opposite. They are secretly not in love with England at all.

I wouldn’t put anything past this government and if the EU and US decide to take a hard line with the U.K. then we may well see closer ties with Russia or China. Something that none of the U.K., EU or USA really want

China isn't interested in the UK other than a weak & absent UK means a less powerful EU.
We are very small and unimportant country to them.
China's priorities are to mend its battered image in Africa and Asia, they'll push the Belt and Road initiative and their new vaccine.

No, Bidon will push the UK to mend its bridges with the EU, the US has far far more influence on the UK than we do on them.

www.glasgowtimes.co.uk/news/18659464.joe-biden-chooses-celtic-secret-service-codename/