To question what Biden's win means for any UK trade deals (economy)?

[Officebox]

I'm delighted about Joe Biden's and Kamala Harris' election win! Great news! The world seems to be happy about this result too! Yay!!!

However, reading reports about the future of UK and US relations following this change in power at the White House, AIBU to be a bit worried for Britain?

The UK is in the middle of Brexit trade negotiations that will impact the economy. Can/will the Biden win impact trade negotiation deals one way or another?

Boris Johnson congratulates Joe Biden on US election win 'Special relationship' may face downgrade...

"They won't be seen as natural allies: Joe Biden, the seasoned Democrat, and Boris Johnson, the bombastic Brexiteer.
In looking at how their future relationship might work, it's worth considering the past. Specifically that seminal year, 2016, when Donald Trump won the White House and the UK voted to leave the EU. Both Mr Biden and his boss at the time, Barack Obama, made no secret they preferred another outcome on Brexit." - Jessica Parker, Political Correspondent

A special relationship or back of the queue: What could a Biden or Trump victory mean for the UK economy after Brexit?

Brexit and the US election: What the Trump v Biden result could mean for the UK

And many more...

What's everyone else's thoughts?

A US trade deal wouldn't be a good thing.

Biden becoming president will just about save UK trade in the nick of time, in that his lack of enthusiasm (to put it mildly) for a no deal Brexit that would break the GFA is zero.

So Boris is going to have to do a very speedy 180 degree U turn and come up with deal in the next month that doesn't piss off the Irish and hence Biden.

So the UK is now highly likely to backtrack and discover it does want to do a deal with the EU. Probably one that leads us with some environmental standards and workers rights to align with Europe, after all.

A hard no deal Brexit is now effectively off the table.

What do official UK predictions say about a US trade deal?

A 2018 cross-Whitehall study of the costs and benefits of Brexit estimated that a US free trade agreement would increase UK GDP by only 0.2 per cent after 15 years, a tiny fraction of the 2 to 8 per cent costs of Brexit during that time.

Officials arrived at this conclusion because, like other experts, they saw the gains from a US trade deal to be small in comparison to losses from the EU.

Since greater trade can boost the economy through cheaper imports and more efficient supply chains, the net effect would be to hurt UK growth in the long run.
www.ft.com/content/40d74c90-85e5-11e9-97ea-05ac2431f453

@PicsInRed The days of the cold war are long gone (this was indeed when American valued the UK as an "unsinkable" aircraft carrier and bridgehead for use if the cold war went hot)

the brexiteers ive seen on sm are not at all concerned - the US needs us more than we need them, see.

I have no idea why anyone would think that Trump would have been behind the UK. He'd have chucked us back under the bus we so stupidly chose to step in front of.

Biden is a seasoned statesman. He is going to do what's best for the US. But I hope this means Johnson is now crapping himself and is hurriedly baking a nice big humble.pie for Michel.

A hard deal Brexit is now effectively off the table , total bollocks. Time has almost run out and there is no common ground on a number of critical issues.

@Cacacoisfarraige

Trump wanted to destroy the EU so was happy to use the U.K. for that purposes

Joe Biden wants to protect the GFA. He has said that a number of times as has Nancy Pelosi.

There was an interesting post on another thread - article coming tomorrow in the independent

Biden does not have a relationship with Biden and Harris is not a fan either.

You mean Boris doesn't have a relationship with Biden and Harris isn't a fan either.

@PicsInRed

Pushing a newly independent UK, perched between Europe and the US like an enormous earthy aircraft carrier, desperately into the trading arms of China, probably isn't what Biden and the US want right now.

They're not stupid. They'll deal.

Not of the GFA isn't protected. You wouldn't be getting good terms anyway but if Boris breaks the GFA you won't see anything. Boden jas been against Breitling since he was in office

Despite all the fears over dodgy chicken, I think Trump would’ve been more keen to forge a relationship with the UK. Biden and Boris are pretty much at different ends of the political spectrum.

[quote Rosehip10]@PicsInRed The days of the cold war are long gone (this was indeed when American valued the UK as an "unsinkable" aircraft carrier and bridgehead for use if the cold war went hot)[/quote]
It's not as over as you'd think, the difference is that our key adversary is no longer Russia, but China (with whom the West are in an aggressive trade war, and which is on the verge of hot war with India.

Delightful times ahead - and no doubt the USA wouldn't want to see Chinese naval bases on our south coast (China love their naval bases abroad) so they won't want us too desperate. Nor will Europe - they're already seeing issues in this direction with Greece.

Isn’t ‘Buy American’ one of Biden’s straplines? I can’t see that being great for increasing trade with the UK.

Part I know: Biden is an internationalist. He's not an America First guy. Biden will be reliable & keep his word & appoint competent principled civil servants who know how to make trade deals that conform with domestic & international law & won't create oodles of future disputes with WTO.

Part I think I understand: House of Reps has big influence in making trade deals. HoR are Dem run now & would have been under Trump. It is easier to do any laws when POTUS & legislature are the same party.

Any UK-USA Trade deal will be much better and easier to achieve under President Biden than ever could be with #45.

F leave voters
F trump

Well, Leave voters, I hate to say the Remainers told you so, but, well....this really is a case of reap what you sow. Personally I'm willing to eat nothing but turnips for the rest of my life if it means people will finally start seeing through the likes of BJ and Farage and BJ is made to actually comply with international law. Dearie me, BJ, back the wrong horse, did you? There, there. I'm sure there's a fridge somewhere you can hide in.

Our ever-so-slightly inflated view of our role on the world stage in the UK always makes me laugh. After Brexit, we'll be pretty much irrelevant.

I was going to comment that I believe many Remain voters don’t actually want things to go well, because this will justify their doom and gloom predictions about leaving the EU. Well, this post perfectly sums up my point!

Nothing would piss off Remain voters more than the unlikely event that leaving the EU has its benefits. However, it would no doubt be better for us all if this was the case.

I'd rather do a deal with Biden on just about anything, on the basis of personality and political experience alone.

Hopefully it will lead to is having a realistic trade deal and relationship with our closest friends and neighbours, and put an end to all the law breaking and posturing from our absolute dickhead of a prime minister. Hopefully it will lead to a deal that will protect jobs, livelihoods and the economy, won’t screw over farmers, and safeguard at least some of our position on the international stage.

@Pyewhacket

A hard deal Brexit is now effectively off the table , total bollocks. Time has almost run out and there is no common ground on a number of critical issues.

There's no common ground... until one side moves and then there is common ground.

Any Trump trade deal was always going to be economic bad news for the UK - but it would have existed so could have been sold as positive.

Now the Trump trade deal can't exist, so Johnson needs to rethink (if he can manage that).

I think people were that fixatted with Trump a lot have taken there eye off the ball and don't realise what they have been left with, or should we say the people behind Biden .

Boris' stance re Ireland is a negotiating tactic.

Northern Ireland, not Ireland, IE part of the UK. As someone living in NI, I funnily enough don't appreciate the man who is supposed to be our prime minister using our peace as a bargaining chip.

It shouldn't take intervention from the US President, a prime minister should be keen on avoiding civil war restarting in his country under his watch, but there you go.

@MindyStClaire

Boris' stance re Ireland is a negotiating tactic.

Northern Ireland, not Ireland, IE part of the UK. As someone living in NI, I funnily enough don't appreciate the man who is supposed to be our prime minister using our peace as a bargaining chip.

It shouldn't take intervention from the US President, a prime minister should be keen on avoiding civil war restarting in his country under his watch, but there you go.

You're right. I stand corrected. And I don't blame you; I'd feel angry too. But I still believe, rightly or wrongly, Boris is taking his stance as a negotiation tactic.

We now have a grown up in the room and Boris knows he is going to have to U turn.
Had Trump won it would’ve made the hard brexiteers bolshy.
This way round Boris will have to eat some humble pie and start playing by the rules fingers crossed

@MindyStClaire

Boris' stance re Ireland is a negotiating tactic.

Northern Ireland, not Ireland, IE part of the UK. As someone living in NI, I funnily enough don't appreciate the man who is supposed to be our prime minister using our peace as a bargaining chip.

It shouldn't take intervention from the US President, a prime minister should be keen on avoiding civil war restarting in his country under his watch, but there you go.

Im sorry Mindy but you do not speak for everyone here. I am in the North of Ireland. Johnson is not my PM and this is not his country.

I think it increases the chance of the UK reaching a deal with the EU, as the deal with the US will be lower down Mr Biden's list of priorities than it would have been with a second term Mr Trump.