To ask if Biden has definitely won?

[bluewanda]

He has, right? Joe Biden is the new POTUS!

@ShagMeRiggins
Sorry, yes. I'm assuming Trump would be raising legal challenges in each state as happened back then. I'm not completely sure of the process though so just waiting to see how that plays out.

Trump is going...way hey!!

Joe Biden is the new president

Michigan, Arizona, Nevada. If Biden wins this, I will always love you. Come on!

It’s not first to 270 is it? I’m so confused

Dunno but I’m definitely using POTUS in a conversation soon!

My nerves are shot because I want Biden to win so badly. Trump won’t go quietly though.

I think Biden will squeak in but the upper house of senators is still Republican so any policies of Biden's will be blocked by the Senate unless they do deals amongst themselves in the Senate to get things through.
I think they'll be lots of arguments and threats to go to the supreme court to try and get the postal votes cancelled which are predominantly Democrat because Democrats are more nervous about queueing and Corona virus.
If trump does go to the supreme court to cancel the postal vote, they could agree because the judges are made up of 5 Republicans and 4 Democrats and majority wins. The controversy of this is it will 5 to 4 Democrat majority until a few weeks ago. A Democrat judge died a few weeks ago and as with tradition, if a judge dies near to an election , that person is not replaced until after the election but trump did it before the election.
It is a murky world and nowhere near the democracy that they would like us to believe it is with trump in charge.

It’s not first to 270 is it?

Effectively, yes it is
It's like UK parties needing enough for a majority; if they get past a certain number they're "it"

@WhereverIGoddamnLike, no worries. I hope my correction wasn’t smug, it was there purely for clarity as I realise this site is predominantly UK users and the US election process must be confusing as hell.

The postal votes are almost guaranteed to be skewed in Biden'a favour.

I wondered about this comment as well, was that yours? On what do you base this? I ask because—historically—postal voters are overseas military who tend to vote for the Republican Party.

With COVID I’m sure postal votes must be coming from US residents more than normal, just wondered what source there is to assume postal votes will be in Biden’s favour.

@ASchuylerSister

Once someone reaches 270 they cant be beaten. They have the majority. It's like best out of 5; once someone gets 3, they cant be beaten.

@ASchuylerSister Whoever can cross the 270 electoral college votes wins. Different states have different amounts of electoral college votes, representative of population, and so carry different weights. For example, California has 55 while Georgia has 16. Right now, Biden is projected at 248 and Trump is at 214.

One thing people seem to be forgetting is whether EC members will follow the whip. Some states legally mandate this, others don't, and it'll be interesting to see if there is any suggestion of rebellion from the Trump executive as there were some hopeful cries from Clinton supporters in 2016. However, we're still a long way away from those debates, as Biden's margins are small in crucial states.

Anyone thinking this is eerily similar to House of Cards season 4? Different tactics but same aim.

Nevada stopped counting a while ago. I know they need sleep but come on guys!!

Clinton 'won' on votes in 2016
The electoral congress still gave it to Trump

Crazy system

No but if he does it will be a King with no power...

It’s not first to 270 is it? I’m so confused

I think whoever gets to 270 has then won a majority.

The Guardian has a live table (in its live feed) of the votes still to be counted in its outstanding states, and the margin that the current winner is winning by. Trump's in Pennsylvania looks massive, with about another 1.1 million votes to be counted, but as I've been watching it's been clicking down....and down....

God, this is hell!

Seriously, I know I’ve said this already but Pennsylvania is a safer bet for Biden than Nevada right now. Nevada has some very rural, trump-leaning areas left to count yet as well as likely democratic leaning mail ins. Pennsylvania has 1.1 million votes to count from mainly mail-in votes and votes from Pittsburg and Philadelphia. Trump’s lead is under 400,000 and Biden is likely to have a big advantage in the remaining million odd votes.

@Veterinari

Clinton 'won' on votes in 2016 The electoral congress still gave it to Trump

Crazy system

Not Crazy at all. It’s a representative voting system, not a referendum.

@Lurkingforawhile Nevada counters continued, it's just they're having issues with some ballots and due to issues regarding the signature on the ballot return envelope. Either the required signature is missing or it doesn’t match the signature on voter registration rolls. So now, prior to including these in the count, they have to notify voters to see if they want to correct them. They're hoping to announce some time on Thursday.

Anyone thinking this is eerily similar to House of Cards season 4?

Funny you should say that; I've never seen the remake, but have just been watching the original with Ian Richardson

Unbeatable in my humble opinion

@crackofdoom yes in Pennsylvania his majority literally dropped from 550k to 450k in half an hour. So everything that looks like a big truml win is massively up for grabs now.

Thanks all for explaining, makes more sense now.

I had googled but went cross eyed at it all - should have just come straight to mumsnet!

@sst1234

Personalities aside, what realistically do you think it will change if Biden does win? Realistically, not just rhetorically.

Good question!

IF Biden wins, he will not be expected to do anything radical. He is a likeable, decent, somewhat doddering 77 year old veteran Washington insider who isn’t the sharpest knife in the drawer, so he will probably appoint a very strong experienced team of people who served in the Obama administration.

Biden has been elected because he isn’t Donald Trump, not because he has an inspiring vision or a compelling manifesto for change. He will have the House of Representatives on his side, but not the Senate. His party is divided between those who want a return to ‘business as usual’ politics and those who want radical change.

It will be very interesting to see what exactly he does do.

@Veterinari

That's not how it work. Its representative voting to ensure all states get a fair say depending on their population. The electoral college didnt "give it" to Trump. The electors voted in-line with the majority vote from the state. If you win the state, you win the electoral votes (usually). Each state has a set number of electoral votes, and you need to get 270 to win. Trump got 270.
They dont use the popular vote system because they dont want hugely populated states taking control.

Military votes are not counted until the 6th, we could be waiting until the 23rd