Circuit break in england?

[Ilovegreentomatoes]

Do you think boris will announce one by the end of the week? It would make sense to coincide with schools half term.
I think we need one, cases rising everywhere with the potential of higher death rates.
All these tier lockdowns are rubbish and confusing imo a 2 week circuit break is the best way forward to keep things under some control.

Only work if you also pause flights in and out

Surely all a lockdown does it push it down the road again and we're in the same place in another 4 weeks.

I'm also not convinced that it's right to treat areas that have a relatively low number of cases per 100k population and which have risen a very small amount over the last 7 weeks, in the same way as those that have 10, 20, 30 times the cases (is South West Vs North East). I prefer the tier system to a national lockdown.

If any sort of national lockdown comes in, then it should only do so with appropriate financial recompense to businesses and their staff. Businesses have spent a lot of money to be Covid-secure to try and stay afloat, anywhere that the Govt impels to close must be compensated.

Good idea, circuit break followed by another and then another and another ad infinitum. Better to learn to live with the virus than try and avoid it. I mean, its not Ebola is it? It's not a death sentence if you contract it (even with pre-existing conditions). Get real!

@kittensarecute I'm with you. I can't do it. I also believe it will be extended and extended for months again. I scraped through the last one but my MH won't stand another.

No, I think the 3 tier system is his solution, circuit breaker is Wales'

@PineappleUpsideDownCake

I have plans in half term. After a difficult return to school Id really hope they get a half term.

Me too. As a worker in a school, I wouldn't get a proper break during a lockdown, so rubbish for me and others like me really. Also as you say it's not fair on the children either who have had a very difficult and stressful 8 weeks back. We need a break from this.

On a wider note, I think these lockdowns are disastrous for the economy, and we need the economy working so that we can pay our bills as a country. I think Boris is in a quandary with this and I don't envy his position.

There's no such thing as a 'circuit breaker' that's going to happen in a magic 2 week period, it's all just talk. It will give us maybe a 2 week dip in new cases, that's all.

@RincewindsHat

There's no such thing as a 'circuit breaker' that's going to happen in a magic 2 week period, it's all just talk. It will give us maybe a 2 week dip in new cases, that's all.

It is being talked up as a ‘short, sharp shock’. Why is the virus suddenly more shocked by lower measures than in March. Does it know it has a new name

It's logical and necessary so Boris Johnson will probably not be doing it.....Note about the track n trace..some of the kids at my sons school have downloaded it....ds has had you've been near someone who has tested positive but nothing to worry about don't need to do anything.....when you download it it says 16+ only.
Expensive PR exercise allowing lucrative contracts for old pals.
Someone asked me 5 days ago to name one competent thing Boris has done since being PM..... still thinking...

What worries me is that as usual the figures are being massaged.

Not everyone with symptoms is tested. In a domestic situation of Mum, Dad, and 2 children for example three things might happen. Mum starts having a fever and a cough , so she phones 111 (I think thats the number), she I s told to get tested and until the results come through the whole family should self isolate. Result comes in as Positive, meanwhile the children and Dad have symptoms. They are told that they don't need testing because it's expected that the results are positive. However only one person o f the 4 will be counted as they are the only one to be tested.

As for deaths, only those who die within 28 days of the initial test are counted. Doctors and nurses working in ICU are reporting that from the point of testing most patients spend 14 - 21 days at home. They generally arrive in hospital only when their condition deteriorates to the point of not being manageable at home on day 14 - 21 days they then spend up to 18 days in ICU before they d I e. They will not be counted as their death is more than 28 days after the original test.

Based on these scenarios, it starts to become clear that the number of new cases is far greater than that being quoted, and that deaths are far more common that realised by the general public

Of course Johnson won't do it, costs too much of his mates money!
What happened to His 'Operation cum-shot' (so named after Cummings maybe??) or whatever it was called, all our money being spaffed away...we should have had a proper lockdown weeks ago. My husband and son have already lost jobs, we are living on fresh air, but we need to put Health before Wealth.
Oh for some decent bloody leadership in these times eh.

Firebreaks and lockdowns or any of the Tier restrictions will only work if they majority of people follow the rules meticulously. Unfortunately I don’t think people have the will anymore and think they have rights to bend the rules as they see fit, particularly for birthdays, occasions and no doubt a Huge amount of people won’t observe it being only their own household indoors over the forthcoming Christmas season. It’s the “it won’t hurt” mentality but it really does. It prolongs this Virus, causes misery, deepens the forthcoming economic depression and literally kills people in increasing numbers. Scientists say we need the previous type of lockdown, not the economy-first quick fixes Boris keeps fiddling around with. So people have to decide if they are going to take this seriously and knuckle down to abide by the rules, whatever they are, for short term pain and hopefully long term gain.

I voted YABU, not because I disagree with another lockdown, but because I disagree with another lockdown unless we improve track and trace. Otherwise we will be back to square one in a month's time

@kittensarecute

I won't cope if there's another lockdown, I just won't. It won't be two weeks it'll be months and months and months like before. I can't do it again

Same here. I didn't stick to it in March/April, and that was bad enough. Hell would freeze over a thousand times before I did that again.

As I have said on other threads, "circuit breaker" is such a shitty phrase. It's an attempt to give credibility to something that's completely monstrous. They ought to give it its real name, namely "a second lockdown, because we don't know what we're doing, and we're bowing to pressure from, um, not sure who, really, but we don't want to lose any votes, and blah, blah, blah."

I say this as a lifetime Conservative voter (until the last election, thanks to Brexit).

What’s the point. The Rona will still be there waiting, like an swarm of angry 🐝s waiting for their victim to come up from the water that they’ve been hiding in.

Firebreaks and lockdowns or any of the Tier restrictions will only work if they majority of people follow the rules meticulously

^ This, while people go on a last "all out party" there is no point in any lockdown / fire break or whatever fancy name is choosen.
There will just be the same shot 6-8 weeks down the line.

Looking fwd to celebrate Christmas, looking fwd to celebrating bonfire night - if they lock me down then I will go on holiday aboard, let’s push on and get this thing over with - cases already declining in Manchester and other areas - we can do this!

I was in my big local town today. It's scary how many of the big name shops have pulled out of the high street. I'm not sure there will much "normality" to return to.

Also I agree the the science doesnt really measure up to hope that the general public places in it. Without a vaccine you have the same numbers if deaths ( well hopefully slightly less in a a best case managed system) we are toothpaste and you either squeeze it out slowly so the NHS always copes ( unlikely as it doesnt cope over winter anyway year on year) or you jump on the tube squeezing everyone out at once and see people dieing on the floor of A&E. Some that could have been saved with faster treatment and some more who die of all things people die of but normally have the NHS to battle for their life.

But it doesnt stop the virus. It wont change the outcome for those people who it will kill. If it's going to be fatal it will kill you next week or next year.

The only silver bullet is a vaccine. A fire break or circuit break eliminates a issue. This wont. It should be called a fire or circuit suppressant as its giving people false hope. " if we just do this it will go away" doesnt work like that all you need is one person in the world to have the virus and a pool of humans with no immunity and we do this on repeat until it becomes a background disease.

It would be putting the cap back on the leaky tube of toothpaste. It might bide time for a vaccine, it might mean the NHS copes with lower numbers all those great things. But it does not get rid of the virus.

We have a few outcomes, slow manageable spread through the population, uncontrolled spread, vaccine. Disappearing would be fantastic but its extremely implausible while the virus has a big pool of uninfected hosts still.

I kind of hope the positive cases are being massively underestimated because that means the number of uninfected hosts is less.

It's all crap however you look at it, but false hope isnt going to help MH when this plan goes TU.

Just my Opinion. What do I know. I just cant buy in blind faith if we all try hard enough it will disappear. That's not how it works.

To those saying what is the point as cases will just rise again, the idea is to use the four weeks gained in halting rising cases (they think a circuit break would take levels to what they would be 28 days previous than no circuit break) in improving the poorly functioning test and trace system which would also help to slow increase in cases. If this happened then a circuit break could help. The problem is can we trust the test and trace system to improve that much as govt still refuse to move more of it to local authorities who have better success at reaching contacts and encouraging more people to self isolate?

Also more financial support is probably needed for those who have to self isolate. I think at the moment, please someone correct me if I am wrong, the financial support for those self isolating is only available to those in Tier 3 areas.

As for comments it’s not Ebola, no, it hasn’t got the same death rate, but it’s much more infectious increasing your risk of having a bad outcome and with time it is becoming clear death is not the only negative outcome. There is real concern that a subset of those reporting longcovid may have developed a life long disabling condition at worse or at best still many months of disabling illness.

Legoandloldolls , reading epidemiologists who recommend a circuit break none of them believe it will get rid of the virus. It will only at best buy a bit of time which as I wrote above if used wisely could be used to improve the test, trace and isolate system which is another tool to keep cases at lower levels once cases get lower. The question is do we trust the govt capable of improving the test/trace system sufficiently?

And of course all these measures are only to buy time until spring as there is increasing hope from those conducting vaccine trials that a vaccine may start to become available by then, although it will take many months or longer to be widely available. So even in the best case scenario we are looking a long time ahead before v few restrictions will be possible.

Finally, if the few vaccine trials they are hopeful will get improved late winter don’t work out then things are bleaker and we may have to learn to life with it to an extent including the increased deaths and disability. I imagine there will be some measures advised to follow even with that approach to try and help health care not become too overwhelmed.

Ds doesn't start half term until Friday, I hope Boris sees sense & starts 3 week circuit break on Friday. But no wishy washy half baked ideas, full lockdown for three weeks, only food & pharmacies open, only go out for food, medical reasons or if you are a key worker. I'm in South Yorkshire, Boris has had meetings with our council leaders today, it looks like we are moving to Tier 3 so a full lockdown wouldn't be much difference.

Universities are talking about a two week lock down so students can go home for Christmas after self isolating. We could all do a bit of self isolating to join in in solidarity. Two weeks before the 'party season' explodes may help a tiny bit with fewer infections over Christmas, as they are bound to have a giant leap two weeks after.

@Ineke if people have holidays booked for the week including Christmas they would need to be free to go on 19th December and in many cases going away with ones one household would be less risky than large family gatherings on Christmas Day. Why is it assumed that everyone will be at home with their extended family for Christmas Day? Furthermore a lockdown before Christmas would stop people spending money on retail and hospitality. If no one can go to any kind of pre Christmas do they will not buy new outfits etc

@Nat6999

Ds doesn't start half term until Friday, I hope Boris sees sense & starts 3 week circuit break on Friday. But no wishy washy half baked ideas, full lockdown for three weeks, only food & pharmacies open, only go out for food, medical reasons or if you are a key worker. I'm in South Yorkshire, Boris has had meetings with our council leaders today, it looks like we are moving to Tier 3 so a full lockdown wouldn't be much difference.

Works for you, fab. We’re on half term this week. So if he starts it on Friday it’ll be three weeks out of school for the tens of thousands of children in this area.