Circuit break in england?

[Ilovegreentomatoes]

Do you think boris will announce one by the end of the week? It would make sense to coincide with schools half term.
I think we need one, cases rising everywhere with the potential of higher death rates.
All these tier lockdowns are rubbish and confusing imo a 2 week circuit break is the best way forward to keep things under some control.

@MarshaBradyo because the numbers are growing everywhere. Even Cornwall that’s why. Also the earlier you go in the greater the benefit. Cornwall may be lower but it’s still growing and as we (should) all know by now this grows fast!

@Ilovegreentomatoes

So do we just standby and let the virus get out of control?

It's already out of control surely?

It's a virus. It cant conform because we want it too. If you look on worldometres we have 4 times the number of dally cases as in the first peak. So a effective lockdown would need to look like the first in length or longer as cases are much bigger. Then wait three months and go again.

If you take a country with low cases like Thailand, with no vaccine they will do this too but later.

We can hide away until there is a vaccine under a real lockdown ( March wasnt lockdown really like other countries was it?) Unless there is a vaccine yes we can suppress it but no it doesnt go away.

We would just be waiting like dry tinder for a later outbreak. Maybe you could lock down AGAIN then. How would life ever return to normal? What if there is no vaccine and no super hero to save us?

I'm not sure there is a bad guy to blame or a hero to save us. It's just what it is.

A full lockdown doesn't make sense, I live in an area where we have 46 cases per 100,000 in the last week versus somewhere like Manchester or Liverpool that have 500+ cases per 100,000. Closing our area down will not bring the rate in places where it is high. I feel sorry for people in areas where it is high and I don't necessarily think it is people not following the rules just that in more densely populated areas it will be more easily spread. As a family of four we have booked a couple of days in amusements parks and meals out etc. which of course we can cope without but it all keeps the economy going. I'm not a covid denier but I also think there are other important issues that need to be balanced liked mental health and long term how people will cope, realistically many more people will be impacted and likely die from the long term economic consequences if we close everything down.

No, it’s too little and too late for the virus and too damaging for the economy

Unlike the joyful resurgence to the economy the various tiers bring

[quote Jakobabear]@cardibach I'm in Wales too and you are delusional if you think we are doing any better. Public Health Wales can't even get the figures out every day because there's a constant lag and we have the worst hit hospital in the UK. [/quote]
That’s just not what the figures say.
What evidence do you have that we have ‘the worst hit hospital’? And if it’s only one and all the rest are better does it matter?
I get the figures every day via twitter. No delays. Haven’t missed a day that I can remember. I don’t understand Welsh people who constantly run the country and the Senedd down. It’s weird.

What if our young become our herd immunity? Anyway, we the plebs cant choose anything here. It's nice to muse and talk but we are at someone else's whim. Mine are on half term

A 2 week proper lockdown makes sense.l and would be hugely helpful in controlling the virus. So Boris will not be doing it now.

He’ll do one in December when it’s got incredibly bad, then triumphantly lift lockdown just in time for xmas and hope that makes us all like him.

He is incapable of doing anything at the correct time. Remember how China put on face masks in January and Boris was still saying they were probably pointless months later? Remember when Italy was warning the rest of Europe to lockdown and Boris said UK won’t be doing that, only to change his mind a few weeks later, which delay say scientists cost a lot of lives?

Problem is we don’t have a leader.

[quote Oaktree55]@MarshaBradyo because the numbers are growing everywhere. Even Cornwall that’s why. Also the earlier you go in the greater the benefit. Cornwall may be lower but it’s still growing and as we (should) all know by now this grows fast![/quote]
Sorry but you are not correct where I live the numbers went from 80 per 100,000 to 46 per 100,000 in the last week and this is similar in many areas close to where I live and around the southeast and southwest.

@TheDuchessofMalfy

I don’t think it “makes sense” to do it in half term. I think kids need to be able to enjoy their half term. Adults without children have just had several weeks enjoying nice cheap holidays and the like.

Completely agree. Teachers, kids and parents need to enjoy half term - particularly outdoor activities which will leave their immune systems in a better place for the remainder of term. Some schools particularly private are already off this week and enjoying their holidays. Everyone needs a proper break.

@Skysblue

A 2 week proper lockdown makes sense.l and would be hugely helpful in controlling the virus. So Boris will not be doing it now.

He’ll do one in December when it’s got incredibly bad, then triumphantly lift lockdown just in time for xmas and hope that makes us all like him.

He is incapable of doing anything at the correct time. Remember how China put on face masks in January and Boris was still saying they were probably pointless months later? Remember when Italy was warning the rest of Europe to lockdown and Boris said UK won’t be doing that, only to change his mind a few weeks later, which delay say scientists cost a lot of lives?

Problem is we don’t have a leader.

Why should a full lockdown be imposed on areas that don't have a high number of cases, it is madness and would not bring down the overall number so also pointless.

I wish on the news they would point out that comparing England to Wales or Scotland is pointless. They are, population size wise, more like counties

with different governments - hence the interest in comparing Bumbling Boris with his equivalent at our smaller neighbours

It's massively simplistic to say announce a circuit break to 'coincide' with half term on Friday -

• Some counties are already on half term - how long does this break last for them - 3 weeks rather than 2?
• Will childcare/schooling be provided for Key workers? If not - how do they work? If yes - how do the teachers teach/provide work for kids at home
• What's open and closed? What preparation needs to be done-who's losses are covered?
• What will the rules be and how do you disseminate quickly across the UK or England?

I think they've left it too late to announce a 2 week circuit breaker for over half term. In Lancashire we have some schools off this week (WC 19th) and next week, some off just next week and some off next week and the week after.
After the furore surrounding the tier system and the ongoing wrangling with Burnham, Boris et al have at least got to give the tier system a good run and see if it's effective.
Can you imagine if after just one week of the new system he suddenly announces another change? I mean!

Sorry but you are not correct where I live the numbers went from 80 per 100,000 to 46 per 100,000 in the last week and this is similar in many areas close to where I live and around the southeast and southwest

Yes, cases are low where I am anyway but they’ve dropped in the past 3 weeks (from 80 in 100,000 to 42 in 100,000).

Dont think they will go for a circuit break, but if they did, fingers crossed they would let our forgotten kids finish their a levels this week first... after all they have been through!

no he wont want to be seen to be doing something labour suggested

It was SAGE, the government’s own scientific advisers, that recommended it. Starmer merely endorsed it and called for it

The Tiers are proving to be pretty ineffective. It’ll be interesting to see what effect other interventions have. I feel like banging my head on table at times. If people read up on the benefits of going in early eg in areas such as Cornwall it’s far more effective than a circuit breaker would be now in say Manchester. There’s more argument for a circuit break in lower not higher incidence areas as they can be short and sharp and have a big effect.

@PineappleUpsideDownCake

I have plans in half term. After a difficult return to school Id really hope they get a half term.

It looks as though the kids will be off school regardless of whether it is half term so not to worry.

If you look on worldometres we have 4 times the number of dally cases as in the first peak. So a effective lockdown would need to look like the first in length or longer as cases are much bigger
This isn’t really true, @Legoandloldolls
In the first lockdown you couldn’t get a test until you turned blue and went to hospital. Cases were much, much higher then - we just didn’t have the evidence.

@Oaktree55

The Tiers are proving to be pretty ineffective. It’ll be interesting to see what effect other interventions have. I feel like banging my head on table at times. If people read up on the benefits of going in early eg in areas such as Cornwall it’s far more effective than a circuit breaker would be now in say Manchester. There’s more argument for a circuit break in lower not higher incidence areas as they can be short and sharp and have a big effect.

Even in areas where cases are dropping week on week?

@Itstheprinciple

For those asking what I expect to see after 2 week circuit breaker, the answer is nothing. However, 2 weeks later, I would expect number of cases to have stabilised, then a couple of weeks later, hospital admissions to have stabilised. No one should expect a circuit breaker to reduce cases. It is just a way to be take the virus' foot off the gas and give health services chance to take breath. It may be that in another couple of months, we gave to do it again, and then again. It's not trying to reduce numbers or R numbers like the lockdown and it shouldn't be treated as such.

So what happens if the number of cases hasn’t stabilised after 2 weeks?

@Legoandloldolls the numbers are not higher than march now. In March they were only testing people ill enough to be admitted to hospital with covid. Cases were doubling every three days and they estimate that hundreds of thousands of people were catching it per day in the run up to lockdown. furthermore in March there were no safety measures in place and people were mixing at large scale events like Cheltenham.

"Circuit break" is newspeak for "really, really shit idea".

@BeyondMyWits

Dont think they will go for a circuit break, but if they did, fingers crossed they would let our forgotten kids finish their a levels this week first... after all they have been through!

What about the students doing GCSEs in the first week of November?

@Itstheprinciple

For those asking what I expect to see after 2 week circuit breaker, the answer is nothing. However, 2 weeks later, I would expect number of cases to have stabilised, then a couple of weeks later, hospital admissions to have stabilised. No one should expect a circuit breaker to reduce cases. It is just a way to be take the virus' foot off the gas and give health services chance to take breath. It may be that in another couple of months, we gave to do it again, and then again. It's not trying to reduce numbers or R numbers like the lockdown and it shouldn't be treated as such.

Again how will closing down my area (and many more like it) which has 46 cases per 100,000 reduce the rate? The answer is it won't, it can't get much lower and will not reduce the overall England rate which is currently 95 per 100,000. It needs to be directed at areas with much higher rates (400+ per 100,000). All they will do by closing our areas, with lower rates, is kill the economy and cause more pain for no benefit.