The Associated Press, one of several news organizations whose declarations of winners drive election coverage, is pulling back the curtain this year to explain how it is reaching those conclusions.
The AP plans to write stories explaining how its experts make decisions or why, in tight contests, they are holding back. If necessary, top news executives will speak publicly in interviews about the process, said Sally Buzbee, senior vice president and executive editor.
Given high interest in the presidential race, the complicating factor of strong early voting and President Donald Trump’s warnings about potential fraud, television executives are making similar promises of transparency.
“The general public has a more intense desire to understand it at a nitty-gritty level,” Buzbee said. “We don’t want to be a dark, mysterious black box of ‘We’re going to declare a winner, and we’re not going to tell you how we do it.’ I don’t think that benefits us, and I don’t think it benefits democracy.”
The AP’s decision desk expects to call some 7,000 races next week, from the presidency to state ballot initiatives and legislative races.
For each state, a Washington-based analyst is paired with a race caller who studies political history and demographic trends. If it’s a state where the presidential contest isn’t close, the AP may declare a winner after polls have shut based mostly on interviews conducted with voters through its AP VoteCast survey.
The closer a race is, the more AP’s decision desk relies on actual votes rather than VoteCast. Key counties are watched to see how the numbers compare with party enrollments and trends in previous elections. A winner is declared when the AP concludes there’s no way the loser can catch up.
apnews.com/article/election-2020-donald-trump-television-elections-sally-buzbee-3cd9534435424b9bb3d499db3e887835