to think it's not India that people should be worried about, it's cheaper parts of the UK

[chomalungma]

If you have a high paying job in the South East - because that's what the pay levels are down there because of living costs etc - and your job can be done at home, then your job can be done in other parts of the UK for someone who will do it just as well but for less money.

There may be occasional commuting on the train - but I am sure that could be incorporated into a reasonable package.

The cost of living is much cheaper in many places in the UK compared to the South East.

Whats your point?

Anyone living in the SE with a WFH job should worry they will lose their job and be replaced by someone cheaper elsewhere in the UK (or India)??

@Happycow

Whats your point?

Anyone living in the SE with a WFH job should worry they will lose their job and be replaced by someone cheaper elsewhere in the UK (or India)??

I do believe you've got it.

I think this is the long awaited wfh revolution that has been predicted for decades. I can predict vast areas of inner London being a ghost town over the next twenty or thirty years. We shall see.

I agree, OP. I’ve been thinking about this. The knock on effect on house prices in the commuter belt will be interesting...

My other wonder is, if firms switch to 100% WFH and save a fuck ton on leasing property, upkeep of property and all overheads - they’re hardly likely to pass that cost on to their employers are they? Meanwhile, everyone is stuck WFH paying higher energy costs (especially with winter coming) and being told to feel glad they just have a job. So all of those savings made by firms go straight in to the pockets of the shareholders and directors.

Seems unfair, somehow. Especially if they then save a fuck ton on outsourcing work to cheaper parts of the country.

I get your point, but an increase in people wanting houses in an area will cause prices to rise. Its already starting to happen in the North of Scotland. Plus we can't all live in the North, some will have to live down South. I don't think it will be as bad as you think, but job wages may decrease a bit down South. Someone getting 100k down there may end up only getting 60k.

@KeepingPlain you're right.

I agree. It's great. My husband has a well paid south east job that can only be done in certain major cities. Really restricts where we can live and cost of living is very high. Allowing wfh will mean we could move to one of these cheaper areas you talk about which can be nicer and less populated with a lower cost of living so he can take a pay cut.

Over time it should even out the cost of living more equally across the country with any luck and also sure as the population more equally throughout the U.K. (although everyone will want to move to the pretty parts so those may become more expensive instead).

Win win.

I agree.

I live in a town near the edge of the London commuter belt, and I wonder what effect increased wfh will have on house prices here.

On the one hand, a lot of people do buy houses here in order to commute to London every day. If people stopped needing to commute to London they might move somewhere cheaper and house prices here would fall too.

On the other hand, if companies go to mainly wfh but with occasional meetings in London (which a few seem to be doing at the minute), maybe more people will move here from London who don’t mind a long-ish commute once a week but wouldn’t want one every day.

@MiniMum97 win win? Not for those of us who live in cheap parts of the country on low wages. The only reason I could afford to buy my house was because property here is cheap. I don't want people like me being priced out because everyone is moving here from the south east who will still be on good salaries.

Good luck

It doesnt really matter where your replacement is based. You still lose your job.

That happened in my job. They outsourced us then relocated the job up north so they could employ people for less money. I tuped then moved up with the job and I get paid 50% more than the new guys. Bought a house for1/5 the cost of a similar one down south so win win for me. But there were a lot that couldn’t relocate so had to find other employment.

Agree! A few law firms have set up satellite offices in Belfast in the past few years because the wages are so much lower than London. They can employ more experienced Belfast lawyers for a similar price to trainees. A lot of the routine stuff has gone over so London offices are for the high end big stuff to justify 100k+ wages.

@CrazyToast

It doesnt really matter where your replacement is based. You still lose your job.

True, but there are some jobs which are unlikely to be outsourced abroad so seemed ‘safe’, but may now be at risk from outsourcing within the UK.

For example psychotherapists often need specific qualifications, a very high level of English, and British cultural knowledge. Before Covid it wasn’t seen as the type of job that could be outsourced. Now that a lot of people are used to online therapy, a London-based clinic could employ therapists to work from home in Newcastle.

You're right, the way we've structured our society and our culture's view that a person's only value comes from their economic output really is shit.

In my industry a lot of companies have tried outsourcing outside the UK and it does come with challenges.

Also we already had remote workers around the UK and that's working fine.

I was thinking about the impact.. If it becomes more the norm then I can see people moving out to more space / cheaper etc. Which would mean property prices falling in London (hopefully! I would lose money but hate that London is unaffordable for so many people who grow up here) but rising elsewhere. Which might be a problem for those already in those areas.

As for London- well I hope it will survive! The culture, club scene, theatres etc etc there's so much going on. And if course it's home to so many people.

The main shakeup would be in the city of London probably. No one lives there really and the whole thing runs on the people who work there. However it's a lot of wealthy companies who value face to face. So it might shrink/ be less busy but I think people will be back.

It'll be interesting to see how it pans out.

I'm really not sure that online mental health services would give as much benefit as F2F.

Humans are animals, mammals. For many, seeing through a screen just isn't the same.

It's also not good for work, casual connections and networking are lost and they are really important.

For example psychotherapists often need specific qualifications, a very high level of English, and British cultural knowledge. Before Covid it wasn’t seen as the type of job that could be outsourced. Now that a lot of people are used to online therapy, a London-based clinic could employ therapists to work from home in Newcastle.

Not a chance. If I was looking for a therapist, I'd want someone who (a) was a Londoner, since I've lived here my whole life and would want someone who can relate to what it's like living here, and (b) someone whose accent is easy to understand. Therapy is personal "me time" and I'd like a flowing conversation. No way would I ever choose someone with a Geordie accent, as I'd have to listen extra hard and wouldn't be able to switch off for a second. I don't want to speak to a therapist if I constantly have to ask them to repeat themselves.

I'm currently doing some transcription work with some interviews from Newcastle and it's causing me extra time and extra stress, due to the amount of inaudible words during relaxed speech. At least I'm getting paid for it, but if I'm paying someone else for therapy of all things then I'm choosing someone with a London/South Eastern accent.

This depends on your area of work I think. This has already happened in my area to a certain extent. It is a specialist, fairly small area with a long qualification process.

It rather depends whether the new world is 100 per cent homeworking or there is still a requirement to meet up sometimes and where.

Moving staff it to cheaper parts of the UK can lead to issues around retention and recruitment though. People never leave once they move as there is usually one employer in the area. But it is very hard to recruit as no one wants to leave the high value areas where there is more job choice. This has knock on impacts in terms of new ideas flowing into companies and ability to staff shorter term projects.

I see this as more likely to extend the commutable radius of jobs rather than being able to move away completely.

I think you're right that the concern for most people will be with competition from other parts of the UK rather than abroad. WFH has benefits but most high paying jobs require a reasonable amount of collaboration and innovation and those need better communication than constant remote work normally provides so we're more likely to see WFH being partial not complete and people will need to be within, say, weekly traveling rather than daily commuting distance of the main office.

This will hopefully help even out the cost of housing a bit BUT I don't know how much it will lower wages as these jobs still need high skilled people and there aren't that many of them sat around in the Highlands of Scotland or the South West twiddling their thumbs waiting to be hired. It may make it easier for women who, once they had children and whose partners don't take on half the sacrifice, found the daily commute too much. That could increase access to talent, but while there have been some strides, on the whole employers really haven't shown themselves too keen to bring them back into the fold so that's not a given.

I don’t think many people will go 100% working from home. Lots of my colleagues still want to go into the office. I think a blended model will be much more normal which does potentially open things up but a long commute from Hartlepool to London for 2 days is still not that attractive so I don’t think the ripple effect will extend that far. I do think lots of people will head out to commuter areas that are 1h30-2h commutes. Plenty of people already do that but it is hard going full time.

OP, you are assuming that there are people in other parts of the country with similar experience, skills etc. who are available to take on the role. There are many niche jobs concentrated in the SE which are not generally available elsewhere.

I think I agree but can’t work out what this looks like in practice.

I need to simplify to get my head around it...
I assume accountants in the U.K. command a specific wage, let’s say £100k. And accountant jobs are currently done in the SE (this is all hypothetical). So all the qualified accountants live in the SE. There must be qualified accountants in India, and companies have now realised they can operate fine with a workforce living in India. They get staff who are qualified the same but can pay them less. Are we saying there are qualified accountants living in cheaper parts of the U.K. but only earning £50k. So companies will now want to hire the £50k accountants not the £100k accountants. But for them to move jobs they’d need an incentive, so they’d need to be paid more than £50k a year. And not everyone can hire the £50k a year accountants because there are only so many of them. The £100k a year accountants would be applying for the same jobs too. So I wonder if we actually end up in scenario where all accountants earn £75k?

That's always been possible, but London has still grown. Critical mass is quite powerful.

On the other hand, DH and I were just talking about the morals of his situation. He works in a deprived area and hires graduates into good jobs, most are locals who have gone to the uni in the city. The calibre isn't amazing, so now they're working from home he was thinking he could broaden his range and recruit from anywhere in the country. The salary would be a good graduate salary anywhere outside London so no changes there. But he's obviously removing opportunities at one of few good employers in the area which is a shame.