To think Sir David King may be right about another lockdown?

[Hamsteratemylunch]

www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/uk-heading-back-lockdown-next-22491159

Summary - track and trace a disaster, not safe to open schools, heading back into lockdown (possibly national ) very soon.

Better not be. We’re already on the cusp of an economic disaster of magnitudes not ever seen.
We need to get back to normal while having strict infection control in hospitals and care homes
Another lockdown would be disaster fir this country

There'll be no national lockdown, just local ones.

Everyone says we can’t have a national lockdown but we are opening schools without many restrictions at all, enormous so-called bubbles. If cases rise exponentially what other choice will there be?

I don't believe for a second the economy can support a second full scale lock down.

I believe there will be local lock downs but nothing like what we have had.

This isn't going anywhere, we have to learn to live with it and move forwards as best we can.

Anything is possible. In Feb/March there were loads of posts that said we won't get covid here, the schools won't close then in May saying we won't be forced to wear masks.... Yet we keep getting one liners saying 'it won't happen'

We will if my shopping trip last night was anything to go by. At least half the twats, in a massive shopping centre, either had no mask or wore it under their nose/chin.

I don't believe for a second the economy can support a second full scale lock down.

This^.

Right now I believe two things:

1. That the govt will do pretty much anything to get all DC back to school FT and to keep schools open; and

2. That they will do just about anything to avoid another full lockdown. Local lockdowns - absolutely, closing specific sections of the economy that are problematic - like pubs - absolutely, but a full, national lockdown was a disaster for the economy and for large numbers of people's health.

@KatherineJaneway

There'll be no national lockdown, just local ones.

Agreed. We can't afford another national one.

Morfin, so true. Very guilty of that myself!
What is the aim now? To prevent overwhelming the NHS? or to keep infections under a certain level, and if so, what?

@Morfin

Anything is possible. In Feb/March there were loads of posts that said we won't get covid here, the schools won't close then in May saying we won't be forced to wear masks.... Yet we keep getting one liners saying 'it won't happen'

This is closer to my thoughts -I don’t claim to know more than one of the top scientists in the country!

I think there will be loads of local lock downs.

It’s going to be hard to keep schools open if lots of staff get sick though.

I predict that there will be several local lockdown running at the same time, possibly covering the majority of the country, but all with slightly different rules and therefore we'll all be in a bigger state of confusion than we currently are.

Certainly hope not
So many jobs would go and lives be ruined

The thing is that a scientist doesn't have to consider other elements and factors of a full lockdown. Of course in terms of keeping numbers low and from a science perspective, the ideal would be for a complete national lockdown; but there is life outside of covid, and decisions need to be made which balance that. I think there will be loads of local lockdowns at various times, but the cost to both the economy but also peoples health aside from Covid is too high.

I think the government will do anything to avoid another national lockdown - they've learned now that it's actually much harder to re-open things than to close them and that you can announce things closed overnight but that you can't restore people's confidence and make employees feel safe in the same timescale. I think that for this reason they won't say 'schools are closed', even if so many areas have local lockdowns that saying there's no national lockdown is pretty much just semantics.

If they want another lockdown they'll need to cough up for it again.

I do feel we are in the period of the best that 2020 will get. Furlough still being paid, great weather so socialising outdoors is easy, kids off school so less interactions.

@Hardbackwriter

I think the government will do anything to avoid another national lockdown - they've learned now that it's actually much harder to re-open things than to close them and that you can announce things closed overnight but that you can't restore people's confidence and make employees feel safe in the same timescale. I think that for this reason they won't say 'schools are closed', even if so many areas have local lockdowns that saying there's no national lockdown is pretty much just semantics.

Ha! I think you are right, because a school in rural somerset is still running fulltime they will be able to announce the schools are still open..

It's in our hands. If we are careful it may not be necessary. But there are too many idiots around refusing masks, social distancing, and attending large gatherings etc.

I'm very worried about the safety of teachers but most people don't seem to care about them.

At least we can be sure that the Tories - normally castigated for being greedy capitalists who care nothing about well-being - will only take measures that harm businesses and the economy if there really were no other option.

Does the Government listen much to Independent Sage?

And haven't I-Sage been rather more on the 'precautions are excessive' side of the policy debate? If so, worrying that they have had a turn-about.

His estimate increase to R is the same as the one Ferguson made earlier this week. So ex-Sage pessimist, and I-Sage are in agreement. I wonder what actual Sage assess as likely range of increase?

Yes sorry to keep agreeing with you @Morfin but this is my sense too - I am not preparing for a ‘normal’ autumn/winter and am expecting schooling to be disrupted (I already WFH).

Can we afford a screwed economy ? 😳

That is the main issue

@Morfin

I do feel we are in the period of the best that 2020 will get. Furlough still being paid, great weather so socialising outdoors is easy, kids off school so less interactions.

Domestic abuse through the roof, health anxiety out of control, mental health issues, many people experiencing long periods of isolation, businesses shutting, redundancies, children not being educated, economic disaster........ yeah, life is just peachy right.

We certainly can't afford to continue the furlough scheme
If we do lockdown again jobs will just go

@Morfin

Anything is possible. In Feb/March there were loads of posts that said we won't get covid here, the schools won't close then in May saying we won't be forced to wear masks.... Yet we keep getting one liners saying 'it won't happen'

I think we had more posts predicting doom and gloom honestly. We had keyworker children plus three year groups back at school whilst many on here said nothing would open until September. We’ve only be asked to wear masks now. Lockdowns are local and are fairly low key. Testing is easily available.

I think we just need a solid policy and enforcement on isolating and testing so people can catch a cold, without shutting their work down in the months ahead.