To think Sir David King may be right about another lockdown?

[Hamsteratemylunch]

www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/uk-heading-back-lockdown-next-22491159

Summary - track and trace a disaster, not safe to open schools, heading back into lockdown (possibly national ) very soon.

I’ve just returned from France. People there are so much more compliant with masks.

Wearing them outdoors in markets etc. Man turned away from supermarket for not wearing a mask. Didn’t see anyone doing that wearing a mask under their nose thing.

Except the airport terminal, where at least 50% of people (all Brits) weren’t wearing a mask.

I’m hoping masks will be compulsory in secondary schools (valid exceptions apply). Otherwise there will be an outbreak and the schools will just have to shut again.

I don't believe it.

Government have already set their agenda re schools and dissolved themselves of responsibility.

All kids back - parents fined for not doing it.

No funding to meet Covid secure demands on budget.

Any death from Covid of staff and pupils to be investigated by HSE and school possibly found liable.

Unions the bad guys for questioning the safety.

Why the hell do they need to stuff the economy again when they've said the right things about caring about education and expecting all children back?

That is the main issue

The main issue is 'what is the full cost if we don't control the pandemic?

Then choose the lesser of evils.

I really don't believe the Nasty Party, and governments across the globe are doing this for shits and giggles. Or that none of them have noticed the implications of the actions

And haven't I-Sage been rather more on the 'precautions are excessive' side of the policy debate? If so, worrying that they have had a turn-about.

I-Sage has always said that the government should be taking much more extreme measures, not less, and have argued that we should be working for Covid Zero. I'm sure they're absolutely right from the point of view of what would minimise the number of deaths from Covid, I'm just not so sure that this is actually the right choice for society overall and that it's the right thing if you consider deaths from all causes rather than taking an 'only Covid deaths matter' approach.

I hope not.

I still think it will be local lockdowns without furlough which will mean other restrictions rather than closed business.

@millymollymoomoo

Better not be. We’re already on the cusp of an economic disaster of magnitudes not ever seen. We need to get back to normal while having strict infection control in hospitals and care homes Another lockdown would be disaster fir this country

another spike would be worse

Sorry - got that completely arse-over, didn't I?

@44PumpLane

I don't believe for a second the economy can support a second full scale lock down.

I believe there will be local lock downs but nothing like what we have had.

This isn't going anywhere, we have to learn to live with it and move forwards as best we can.

I don't believe for a second that the virus takes the robustness or otherwise of our economy into consideration.

Its like saying "we can't have another hurricane, I don't believe for a second the economy can support a second full scale time of everyone taking shelter"

The hurricane wouldn't care abut the economy, and the virus doesn't.

Yes, economies get ruined by natural disasters every year across the globe.

We are just not used to it being us

Right now I believe two things:1) That the govt will do pretty much anything to get all DC back to school FT and to keep schools open

Anything? Except listen to teachers? Except provide the necessary funding to ensure high levels of cleanliness are maintained in schools? Except provide funding to make sure sufficient supply can be contracted during inevitable teacher absence?

There is no anything about it. We are heading for disaster.

No. A full scale lockdown is the last resort and it really shouldn't be necessary if people would stick to the rules that are already in place.
I do think pubs and restaurants might have to close again though in order to keep schools open. Which will be a shame, it will probably finish some businesses off for good.

@zafferana

I don't believe for a second the economy can support a second full scale lock down.

This^.

Right now I believe two things:

1. That the govt will do pretty much anything to get all DC back to school FT and to keep schools open; and

2. That they will do just about anything to avoid another full lockdown. Local lockdowns - absolutely, closing specific sections of the economy that are problematic - like pubs - absolutely, but a full, national lockdown was a disaster for the economy and for large numbers of people's health.

I think this is an excellent summary.

The relevant question isn't whether we might need another national lockdown, it's whether the government are going to be willing to fund it. They aren't the same thing.

Yes, economies get ruined by natural disasters every year across the globe

We are just not used to it being us

Very true

I don't think there will be another full lockdown. Local maybe to avoid overwhelming hospitals in that area. We still have the unused nightingale hospitals. We can't afford, as a country, to have another full lockdown. Yes more people may die, but many more will die of non Covid related deaths if we lockdown again. It's a difficult balance. I think a time needs to come where the vulnerable will have to shield themselves, and the rest will have to ride it out. I know that sounds harsh but it's an impossible situation.

I do feel we are in a really precarious place as a country.

Track and trace isn't working well enough, compliance with guidance is too low, there's little enforcement as we have a very depleted police force and the schools plan is basically 'shove them in and hope the virus has changed'.

I understand absolutely that the government doesn't want another lockdown. I understand absolutely the economy is on its arse.

But we are where we are - so I think all possibilities are possibilities and a national lockdown remains on the big list of options in Whitehall.

I can't honestly understand why more parents aren't about the absolute lack of anything to limit spread in and via schools.

I honestly don't understand why people are more bothered about their finances than they are people's lives.
I suspect it is because they are only thinking about themselves and they consider themselves to be low risk so don't care about others dying. All lives matter including elderly and those with underlying health conditions.
Finances,education can both be recovered.
Death is it. The end. There is no recovery from death.
COVID SARS 2 is killing thousands upon thousands upon thousands. Look at countries such as America and Brazil where they have loose restrictions. Terrible death tolls. We need to keep restrictions and lock downs as needed.
Life is the the most important thing in the world not finances. There is no place for an "I'm alright Jack" attitude.

@meditrina

Yes, economies get ruined by natural disasters every year across the globe

We are just not used to it being us

Very true

Excellent point and something I hadn't considered.

Which just goes to prove even more now true it is!

We still have the unused nightingale hospitals

We couldn't use them, and can't in future, because there are insufficient trained nurses.

Ha! I think you are right, because a school in rural somerset is still running fulltime they will be able to announce the schools are still open. *

This. And crucially they won't have to pay to support people who are unable to work as their children cannot go to school, or who have to repeatedly isolate as the tracing and testing is crap and the bubble system is a joke!

It's complete madness!

The Government is sending schools back with no social distancing or masks, no budget for increased cleaning or handwashing facilities, a nonsense about bubbles of hundreds and no acknowledgement that teachers will break these bubbles by teaching different year groups and kids will break the bubbles by going on the school bus, seeing family and friends and going to activities. Lockdown will inevitably follow, surely? How could it not?

There are very different levels of infection across the country. If all areas can be brought down to the levels in the lowest local authorities lockdown will be unnecessary.

Track and trace is increasingly being taken back by local authorities, who do it far better than the government system.

Local lockdowns will be imposed if necessary, so it's up to everyone now - wear your masks and keep levels of infection low or face economic disaster. Whether lockdown happens or not the economy tanks when there are high levels of infection.

I'm in an area which has a local lockdown. We can't go Into anyones garden or allow anyone Into ours, but we are allowed to go to the pub or shopping.

My friend on facebook was having a grand old time in the local with 6 of her mates, arms wrapped round each other and kissing, selfies galore. While me and others are sat on our own in the garden. Bloody great government we have .

@YewHedge

I honestly don't understand why people are more bothered about their finances than they are people's lives. I suspect it is because they are only thinking about themselves and they consider themselves to be low risk so don't care about others dying. All lives matter including elderly and those with underlying health conditions. Finances,education can both be recovered. Death is it. The end. There is no recovery from death. COVID SARS 2 is killing thousands upon thousands upon thousands. Look at countries such as America and Brazil where they have loose restrictions. Terrible death tolls. We need to keep restrictions and lock downs as needed. Life is the the most important thing in the world not finances. There is no place for an "I'm alright Jack" attitude.

Economic crashes kill too. Death rates go up considerably in recessions. 'The economy' and 'lives' aren't independent entities where you can pick one and save the other (the reverse is also true; clearly allowing maximum numbers of deaths from coronavirus would also trash the economy).

What bothers me about your position is the hypocrisy of it. 17,000 people a year die of flu, and we could probably dramatically reduce it if we just shut down every winter. 25 people a year die of chickenpox, for which there is an effective vaccination that the NHS doesn't give for cost reasons. Across the globe thousands and thousands die daily of diseases that we could eradicate by accepting a fairly modest drop in living standards in the West and dramatically increasing foreign aid targeted at these diseases. There have been many, well-publicised cases of deaths attributable to benefit reforms in the UK that we could just not have enacted if we were all willing to pay more money into social welfare. NICE rations life-saving drugs according to cost effectiveness for the NHS and, while it occasionally kicks off when a child is denied a (usually very ineffective) cancer drug, we all mostly accept this. Clearly we weigh up saving lives against other factors, including money and the economy, all the time and it's only when it comes to coronavirus that people have decided this is evil and that any price should be paid to avoid a single death, regardless of the damage - and deaths - this will cause elsewhere.

DS asked me this morning 'what happens if you get a normal cough ? ' I told him we would all need to isolate until we could be tested. But would his class need to isolate too ? I honestly don't know if what I have told him is true or not, but not looking forward to the winter season of normal coughs and colds.

@Darkdecent

I'm in an area which has a local lockdown. We can't go Into anyones garden or allow anyone Into ours, but we are allowed to go to the pub or shopping.

My friend on facebook was having a grand old time in the local with 6 of her mates, arms wrapped round each other and kissing, selfies galore. While me and others are sat on our own in the garden. Bloody great government we have .

And if you've got a shithead MP they'll still blame 'certain communities' who don't even go to pubs!

Track and trace will continue to improve. A vaccine will be found. Compulsory mask wearing in shops and indoor places will definitely stop/reduce cases. Things will continue to improve no matter what. Unemployment however is the main issue beyond the virus ramifications.