To think Sir David King may be right about another lockdown?

[Hamsteratemylunch]

www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/uk-heading-back-lockdown-next-22491159

Summary - track and trace a disaster, not safe to open schools, heading back into lockdown (possibly national ) very soon.

You are entitled to have a fuck it attitude but others have a different one but your actions may affect them also

Exactly. This is what a lot of people really don't seem to understand.

An individual's actions don't affect just them - they affect everyone around them, and those people should not be forced to accept your sense of low risk.

We all need to assume we are the risk to others, and behave accordingly, not force anyone & everyone to accept the "OH I don't care it's no worse than flu" level of risk.

The UK & world-wide figures suggest it is much worse than flu.

*When people realise that when teachers get ill (and are not swinging the lead) and schools close it will be the fault of those that didn't want measures put in place in schools.

Yet the blame will be put firmly on teachers because people have too big a chip on their shoulder and their desire to go on holiday meant more than the economy or education*

I think there may be a lot of truth in this.

Anecdotally, I've heard of a few people who have returned from holiday and not bothered quarantining, people seem to have forgotten about social distancing in shops, no-one seems to be concerned about enforcing mask wearing, it seems that in a lot of areas pubs are carrying on as though Covid didn't exist and when you add schools reopening into the mix, it's hard to see how a spike in infection rates can be avoided imo.

Local lockdowns seem pretty pointless unless there's some sort of enforcement. But I don't think the government will impose another lockdown unless/until the NHS is on the point of being overwhelmed.

Meanwhile, NZ has now been Covid-free for 100 days...

@IceCreamSummer20, how is the 14-day isolation on returning from abroad being monitored/enforced?

I've heard of at least 4 families/groups who've come back from Spain and simply not bothered.

[quote FrippEnos]www.theguardian.com/science/2020/aug/09/what-we-are-learning-about-covid-19-and-kids[/quote]
Secondary schools aren't the same as primary what a surprise, if I wasn't so dejected by it all it would be funny

Meanwhile, NZ has now been Covid-free for 100 days...

Yes and we could have had/done the same.

Yes, they have fewer people, but that's not why it worked. It worked because the locked the borders and their track & trace was far better. People in NZ can tell you where every case came from & how it was passed on & who to. I am amazed by the information they have.

They also have a much better sense of community & social responsibility.

I'm so VERY thankful to Jacinta Ardern and everyone in NZ for doing their bit to keep my family & friends there safe. It's been a huge weight lifted off of me, not having to worry about them too much.

I wish we'd done the same as what they've done. They locked down HARD & EARLY. Got on top, stayed on top. Of course a few mistakes were made, but they corrected them quickly & thoroughly.

Well impressed.

UK Govt could have learned a lot if they'd been open to learning instead of shaking hands & waffling.

[quote LakieLady]@IceCreamSummer20, how is the 14-day isolation on returning from abroad being monitored/enforced?

I've heard of at least 4 families/groups who've come back from Spain and simply not bothered.[/quote]
I've been back from Spain for 12 days now my quarantine ends on tuesday. I haven't had a call or anything, though I have heard of people who have had a phone call to check they're at home, surely you'd just say yes anyway.

I don't know how people dare dare not bother to do it, I don't fancy a £1000 fine!

[quote IsaLain]@IncrediblySadToo

But there are no cases of children infecting teachers, even in countries where the schools remained open. There are barely cases of children passing it to adults. That fact doesnt change whether you have 15 kids in a class or 30.[/quote]
www.theguardian.com/science/2020/aug/09/what-we-are-learning-about-covid-19-and-kids

Look at the percentages of children, teachers & non teaching staff in this article, it's hardly likely that the children didn't pass it to any of the teachers or non teaching staff & they just got it off of each other now is it?

And that article says teenagers spread it just as well as adults.

"The problem is a local lockdown will not have the same impact.*
I live in an area of a local lockdown we can do anything other than sitting in someone’s house or garden.
So people just meet up elsewhere. Or still go to other people’s houses or gardens as they feel it’s safer than the pub etc
No one is managing this and a lot of people are fed up with it all rightly or wrongly. It’s just so contradictory.
So having local lockdowns could prove to be pointless in getting the r rate down once schools open as normal.

Agree with this. One of the reasons lockdown worked is because there was nothing open to go to!

I’m assuming things will keep ebbing and flowing until this thing disappears, local lock downs, pubs etc opening and closing, schools open/closed either on a national/local/school by school basis. Offices. Opening and closing, socialising ok then not ok. The only certainty in all of this is things will keep changing. Most countries will level out re infections and deaths, I think those countries with higher upfront deaths will fair better over winter. The govt will keep putting its toe in the water then quickly remove it if needed. The scientific advice will change as new phenomena is observed. The government need to balance the economy and the nhs. It’s going to be a constant rebalancing.

We need to star to really get used to uncertainty and change.

[quote LakieLady]@IceCreamSummer20, how is the 14-day isolation on returning from abroad being monitored/enforced?

I've heard of at least 4 families/groups who've come back from Spain and simply not bothered.[/quote]
Without random checks and / or enforcement there will be some people who flout it. However most will not thankfully so overall it will reduce the rate. It depends how much we want to be near zero cases I guess - don’t they enforce quarantine in New Zealand? Arguably easier with fewer in flights. I know in Ireland there that it is self quarantine - and you have to give an address and number at the airport to the police. There are random checks and if you are not found to be quarantining you can be fined or imprisoned.

One of the reasons I favour shutting down pubs is not just the lack of social distancing, but that it is a measure that will actually get enforced. Almost all the others that will reduce the spread including 14 day quarantine rely on voluntary compliance. Indeed the only other one seems to be working from home, which should in my opinion be allowed for anyone who has managed so far over the last five months.

But there are no cases of children infecting teachers, even in countries where the schools remained open. There are barely cases of children passing it to adults. That fact doesnt change whether you have 15 kids in a class or 30.

"Study of a #COVID19 cluster associated with a high school in Israel. Over 260 people were infected, of which 153 were students (attack rate: 13.2%) and 25 were staff (AR: 16.6%). Demonstrates potential for mass transmission in the school setting."
mobile.twitter.com/DrZoeHyde/status/1286332165559484416

Over the following days, almost all students and staff were tested, and 153 of 1,161 students (13.2%) and 25 of 151 staff (16.6%) tested positive. A further 87 cases were detected among the contacts of staff and students.

Taken from this thread on children and #COVID19, summarising the latest research:
mobile.twitter.com/DrZoeHyde/status/1286985284102443008

@IceCreamSummer20

Yes NZ quarantine is enforced. In hotels. Currently there's no tourists, only (thousands) of returning NZers!

At this stage the bill is picked up by the Govt, but is soon to be user pays.

They're very well looked after.

They're looking at some 'travel corridors' as some of the islands up there haven't had any cases. They had been considering Aus, but thankfully hadn't got too far setting that up.

@Amelietaylor thanks that is interesting.

@CoffeeandCroissant I know I don’t quite understand this either. The ECDC report on schools also cites Israel but concludes no child transmission - and I’m not sure why as I read the study and it seemed fairly clear that there was cross transmission between pupils and staff. No one seems to have unpicked this - it does seem overall lower risk than many other indoor activities like gyms and similar risk to others - we just don’t know well enough yet.

There is no chance that schools won't open and there won't be huge numbers of teaches absent due to getting coronavirus.

I want schools to open. I also want better guidelines for schools that take into account ventilation.

I’m sure you are right @MiddlesexGirl there won’t be huge numbers of teachers off. However there will probably be small clusters, and areas will rise in areas not because of schools, but will mean that many things will close again for a while and schools may sometimes be one of them.

However there is another part of this. My DSs teacher is already saying that she will be taking a career break - pretty devastating for us as DS has SN and the new teacher had to be found quickly and is not very qualified. I think some assistants may well not come back either. Combined with pressure on social distancing measures - I think my DS is not going to get a great education next year.

Channel 4 news did some pieces on care workers living in cramped shared dwellings and having to share kitchens with several other families.

Channel 4 news did a huge segment on care workers. And how they are under paid , under valued, classed as low skilled and why they cant socially distance due to the appalling places some of them live in.

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Add message | Report | Message posterHeIenaDove Thu 14-May-20 19:14:10
A care worker interviewed lives in one room with her son and they share bathroom and kitchen facilities with ten other families
Hardly an ideal living situation to cook healthy meals

A care worker was ill with Covid for 28 days and was brought a hot meal every day by Hare Krishna She has to walk an hour to get to work and same to get home because she cant afford public transport

www.channel4.com/news/charities-demand-care-home-workers-are-paid-a-living-wage

www.channel4.com/news/charities-demand-care-home-workers-are-paid-a-living-wage

Then on another date they interviewed another zero hours care worker in poor housing.
www.channel4.com/news/nearly-a-third-of-people-have-suffered-health-problems-during-lockdown-because-of-poor-housing

I agree that schools may struggle to retain and recruit teachers and the quality of teaching may therefore fall.
However, the damage to children through missing so much school is far more than just educational and it is therefore imperative that all schools open to all pupils in September. Fortunately the government do seem to recognise this which is why I am confident that there will be only very localised school or year group closures.

I’m in the USA, in one of the best performing states (Connecticut). Masks are absolutely mandatory here indoors, and a majority wear them outside when walking in busy areas.

Our schools are due to open September 1st. We know already that middle and high schools will follow a hybrid model at best, and is likely to be fully remote.

For elementary:

Children will wear masks.
They will stay with the same twelve children all day.
Music will be outside until the weather dictates otherwise.
Masks can come off at recess, and kids have to stick to the same cohort.
Our elementary schools are having their ventilation systems upgraded.
There will be washing and sanitizing stations placed throughout the corridors.

Even with these measures, I suspect we will get a month or two max before cases rise and we revert to a remote model.

I fear I won't cope if we have another national lockdown. Praying hard that we won't.

I think we perhaps should, but don’t think it will happen nationally.

[quote LakieLady]@IceCreamSummer20, how is the 14-day isolation on returning from abroad being monitored/enforced?

I've heard of at least 4 families/groups who've come back from Spain and simply not bothered.[/quote]
But there will albe a percentage that don't comply. Like people not giving venues their real phone number.