To think Sir David King may be right about another lockdown?

[Hamsteratemylunch]

www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/uk-heading-back-lockdown-next-22491159

Summary - track and trace a disaster, not safe to open schools, heading back into lockdown (possibly national ) very soon.

@MaxNormal

If they want another lockdown they'll need to cough up for it again.

They don't want another lockdown!!

& because ^ is now people's expectation, I doubt there will be one as I doubt they would be prepared to hand out the same packages & that would cause HUGE problems/outrage/riots.

I think they've backed themselves into a corner with not being able to call for another National lockdown

Local ones are obviously on the cards!

& I think that's going to be a problem. So many people live & work in different counties. I work/commute/live in 3 daily. If they all have different rules it'll be massively complicated (as people have already witnessed) and drama because of counties handling it differently & people thinking 'it's not fair/stupid'

Though I'm not entirely sure how much people will follow them now.

@walksen

You don't know how old I am either ; but you talked only about the risk to you. The point I was making is that whilst covid is a negligible risk for some it is clearly significant for others and certainly much higher than chickenpox for millions of people in this country. A pandemic and the lockdown is about the risk to everyone not just you. I personally find it pretty callous to just say everyone dies of something and imply that "we" cannot assess risk. Millions of people have justifiable concerns about catching covid especially if they have underlying health conditions. You are entitled to have a fuck it attitude but others have a different one but your actions may affect them also.

Wow, you’ve made some pretty bold assumptions based on not very much! What makes you think I’m taking ‘fuck it attitude’ and that my actions are affecting other people’s? Please tell me what those actions are precisely?

I am in remission from cancer plus have a number of underlying other health conditions. Not that It matters.

The point I was making that you seem to somehow be missing is that I view Covid the same was as many other illnesses that pose a risk to me given my circumstances and I have chosen to find a way to live my life within those constraints fully accepting the risk. This choice does not invalidate yours or anyone else’s.

This thread is the OP speculating about another national lockdown. I disagree and gave my reasoning for doing so. You have yours, and that’s ok.

Many scientists somehow manage to disagree with the government without this kind of nonsense. SAGE exists solely to advise the government. Indy SAGE....doesn't, so they are by definition Not SAGE.

I wonder if you'd hold the same opinion if SAGE was advocating a prolonged lockdown? Because that is what it's all about in politics-cherry picking the evidence. And if they don't like it and you disagree, you won't be on the podium tonight. That's ridiculous nonsense. Clearly we need something like SAGE that isn't in the pocket of the government, that is truly independent, as a balance. No, scientists don't easily make their voices heard against SAGE at present, hence the need for an alternative voice. I wonder why you want to silence that voice when it is made up of expert, experienced scientists offering skilled research and expertise. Your opinion that they want attention is nothing more than that-an opinion. They, on the other hand, have a lifetime of research in the field to speak from. You may not see the need for them but...interesting that you want to dismiss them. You couldn't possibly think the scientists within SAGE have had the ability to say exactly what they think, when they think it. That is actually horrific. Do you actually want a society in which scientists don't have the capacity to do that?

I do think they’ve misjudged schools. The guidance is very weak. Whilst I get how difficult it is to socially distance in schools, many more successful countries are taking it more seriously. In Germany there is a mix of some mask wearing, staggered classes. Denmark did much of it’s teaching outside in bubbles of 10.

I do think with schools we have to look at:
Mask wearing for older pupils if they are in big sized classrooms. If we are inviting people visiting shops wear masks, then it is even more risky in a classroom where you are in it for hours.
Physically distanced bubbles.
Pupils staying home with any symptoms.
Staggered starts and finishes.
Hepa filters in classrooms (possibly, no real evidence of use in schools but these are used in hospitals to prevent viruses circulating)
Ventilation in classrooms. Some schools in other countries are always opening windows and asking pupils to dress warmly if it is cold.

Also, I do think Independent SAGE is extremely valuable.

It is made up of very well respected people and some really good Public Health professionals with years of experience like Dr Gabriel Scally.

They are publicizing their data and recommendations openly and I believe it is helpful for SAGE to have this extra knowledge. This is too crucial a time just to say ‘how dare they - there is already a SAGE group’ - the more SAGE is scrutinized the better - that is science - it needs robust challenge and debate. That is what independent SAGE is doing - challenging in a scientific, pragmatic and constructive way.

If it takes another lockdown to avoid tens of thousands more then that's what we have to do

It is not too big a price to pay

What is too big a price to pay in a second national lockdown is the hundreds of thousands of jobs that will go, the huge number of lives lost that are not related to covid, a tanked economy and youngsters leaving school with no higher education courses, no job vacancies and being expected to somehow pay for all of this during their lifetime. In that scenario I expect there will be no NHS and no state pension for them either.

If a second lockdown happens I won’t be supporting it.

@Morfin

I do feel we are in the period of the best that 2020 will get. Furlough still being paid, great weather so socialising outdoors is easy, kids off school so less interactions.

Sadly, I agree totally

I'm trying to get prepared for a winter at home (part way through a renovation which can't be finished currently, but trying to make it less of a building site & more homely for the winter), plus get in some bits & pieces so fewer deliveries in the wet months

I'm going to make a list of the things I CAN still do (providing any kind of lockdown doesn't prevent it)

I'm trying to talk myself into going out & meeting up with people (just in gardens) before the weather packs in, but I really don't actually want to, I just don't want to regret not doing it while it was possible 🙇🏻‍♀️

I don't feel 'shut in' as I have every single door, window, skylight open while I can. I hate being closed in the house, that will be much more difficult later in the year, but usually the commute to work & odd bits like a coffee outside a pub/cafe get me through, but might not be happening this winter.

I still haven't seen my DP. We locked down separately (due to his DC/work & I knew he'd want to be much more sociable than I would. I kind of feel if we're going to spend time together, now is the time, but he's still more of a risk to me than I'm happy to take. It's highlighting to me some HUGE differences in our outlooks & although I miss him, it's not that bad. I (mostly) could just let it drift. Sadly.

Sorry, a bit off tangent.

@FlySheMust

It's in our hands. If we are careful it may not be necessary. But there are too many idiots around refusing masks, social distancing, and attending large gatherings etc.

I'm very worried about the safety of teachers but most people don't seem to care about them.

Totally agree!!!

Unfortunately people around here (middle class suburb) are having parties & singing/hugging/definitely not SD.

Most complying with masks in shops, but pulling them up & down in the doorway, negating their use realky.

The point about Zero Covid is not about preventing deaths from Covid at all costs - it's about being able to go back to normal, which is surely what everyone wants. I completely agree, it is really worth having this debate. There is still time to go for zero Covid. We are an island. We have choices economically.

I get that it is quite strange to set up an Independent SAGE group, but I was actually relieved when they did as I was completely horrified by the government SAGE - it is full of well respected people who I believe were genuinely doing their best - however because of a number of factors - the lack of really experienced Public Health professionals (the ones who have worked on the ground in the UK for years), and a weird lack of taking note of what was happening in Italy and elsewhere, SAGE failed badly imho. Well the stats bear this out. I think now Patrick Vallance seems to be opening his eyes, admitting it was a mistake not to lock down sooner which is good, so I am starting to have more faith.

I do agree sometimes I look at the SAGE tweets and it can get a bit ‘look we know what we are talking about’ and politics creeps in. However I do think they are raising the right issues, it may sometimes be a bit rough and ready but it is based on sound Public Health thinking.

I’d love it if the two SAGE’s recognized the importance of each other and we would have a much better more robust plan!

I’d like to see the plan for zero Covid

Who gets to work? Our KW list was quite extensive
How long will measures last and his strict? - would have to be greater than what we had in March and what enforcement?
Closing borders - for how long, until vaccine? Outline movement of goods in this

Do they have a plan?

When people realise that when teachers get ill (and are not swinging the lead) and schools close it will be the fault of those that didn't want measures put in place in schools.

Yet the blame will be put firmly on teachers because people have too big a chip on their shoulder and their desire to go on holiday meant more than the economy or education.

And I have no doubt that those returning from holiday will be quite happy to send their children in sick.

@feelingverylazytoday

No. A full scale lockdown is the last resort and it really shouldn't be necessary if people would stick to the rules that are already in place. I do think pubs and restaurants might have to close again though in order to keep schools open. Which will be a shame, it will probably finish some businesses off for good.

Thought you might like this ...

Closing pubs and restaurants won’t barely make a difference vs schools opening. Six hours days with packed classrooms of millions of children is by far a greater risk than pubs. I don’t imagine the virus thinks to itself that it won’t spread as it’s in school where children are

Closing them will just mean many people will socialise in private homes and likely breaking guidelines re numbers, SD etc.

I haven’t been to a pub but have been to lunch a few times. The set up is so well managed that it’s better they stay open to survive than closed on furlough or bust.

@Darkdecent

I'm in an area which has a local lockdown. We can't go Into anyones garden or allow anyone Into ours, but we are allowed to go to the pub or shopping.

My friend on facebook was having a grand old time in the local with 6 of her mates, arms wrapped round each other and kissing, selfies galore. While me and others are sat on our own in the garden. Bloody great government we have .

Your friend wasn't following the guidelines, do you expect a govt official to be in every single pub Making sure people comply?!

People need to grow up & take some responsibility! It's bad enough that large groups of teenagers are meeting up, (and some SD) but actual grown adults?! It's disgusting.

Unfortunately the evidence does seem to show that pubs are particularly high risk. Schools can be managed. Restaurants can be booked and managed better, with better ventilation. Pubs are harder to manage and it seems maybe all the talking and banter, combined with sitting closer in unventilated rooms, seems to increase airborne spread.

I really wish we would get more up on the ventilation issue. It would greatly help especially now in the summer. If pubs were required to ventilate as priority and close earlier, less people, no music on as background so people didn’t shout. All of these can help.

"and that my actions are affecting other people’s? "

It seems your comprehension skills are no better than your risk assessment ones. I do not know what actions you are taking in love going life which is why I said "may".

You are entitled to take the view that the risk of covid is no greater than that of "chickenpox and scarlet fever" but don't pass it off as your ability to "risk assess" being superior to others. I don''t have enough information to work out what that additional risk to you is but I'm surprised that you are so dismissive of it. There is an undercurrent of I can live with the risk so others should too expect of course "we have lost the ability". Some of us are putting up with extra local lockdown due to others living life because "you will die anyway"."it's just another disease" People doing their own "risk assessments" etc.

I've not given my view of the lockdown one way or the other.

If anyone in real life patronised me by saying I needed to do my own risk assessment when it is patently obvious they have no idea themselves I'd tell them to fuck off.

@MarshaBradyo yes there is a proposed plan for zero Covid. This is an article which is shorter than the full document.

I think that the thing to remember is this virus is not going away. We have a choice:

• clamp down now, take a hit economically, but then open up almost fully for the months / year or so.
• have on and off lockdowns for many, many months, take a hit economically, do not open up fully.

We should at least have the debate in my book.

www.image.ie/life/zero-covid-island-scientists-say-eradication-of-covid-19-is-the-best-way-forward-208580

@walksen

"and that my actions are affecting other people’s? "

It seems your comprehension skills are no better than your risk assessment ones. I do not know what actions you are taking in love going life which is why I said "may".

You are entitled to take the view that the risk of covid is no greater than that of "chickenpox and scarlet fever" but don't pass it off as your ability to "risk assess" being superior to others. I don''t have enough information to work out what that additional risk to you is but I'm surprised that you are so dismissive of it. There is an undercurrent of I can live with the risk so others should too expect of course "we have lost the ability". Some of us are putting up with extra local lockdown due to others living life because "you will die anyway"."it's just another disease" People doing their own "risk assessments" etc.

I've not given my view of the lockdown one way or the other.

If anyone in real life patronised me by saying I needed to do my own risk assessment when it is patently obvious they have no idea themselves I'd tell them to fuck off.

It’s interesting that you have resorted to personal attacks and insults to put your argument across.

@Calledyoulastnightfromglasgow

This is ridiculous. It’s time to live with this virus

The problem isn't living with it, it's dying from it.

But are you suggesting we just forget it exists and go back to life as it was pre Covid?

I have pointed out the limitations in your supposed risk assessment skills and retorted to your unfair and inaccurate statement that you action were affecting others.

I find it interesting that you still have provided no evidence of the ability to risk assess which others lack.

So in summary, proposed zero Covid19 plan for Ireland (it may be different for the UK)

• wear face masks indoors and out
• country divided into areas of risk (which will change) green zones are open - high risk zones go into lockdown
• mandatory 2 week isolation for all entering the country
• safe travel bridges only established when lower numbers and similar straggles

This is similar to New Zealand. It is interesting that countries with zero Covid19 still have to remain really vigilant, and keep on top of hygiene measures, testing etc. In New Zealand it is reported that people are becoming too relaxed and forgetting to wash their hands etc.

Where are they up to with the vaccine?
It concerns me that secondary school kids wont have to wear masks in the buildings but they do have to in shops and on the school bus home.

Icecream thanks for the link. I’d be interested to see if I-Sage have a plan for England to back up claim to go for zero Covid.

It seems ok as a plan but the details are helpful. How do you stop transmission between zones and do you pay zones to lockdown, eg furlough etc?

I’m not asking you really, just it’s hard to judge without the practicalities.

I was never sure about closing schools in the first place, particularly because of the damage done to 'at risk', low-income/FSM, and other vulnerable kids, but accepted that it was probably needed to protect more vulnerable members of society. I no longer accept that that need outweighs the need to protect the most vulnerable by keeping the frigging economy going. We need the schools open. We need no more than local lockdowns. Otherwise, once Brexit hits, we're well and truly up shit creek rather than just a good way up it :(