To think Sir David King may be right about another lockdown?

[Hamsteratemylunch]

www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/uk-heading-back-lockdown-next-22491159

Summary - track and trace a disaster, not safe to open schools, heading back into lockdown (possibly national ) very soon.

He's not the head of SAGE, he's the head of 'independent' SAGE - I wish they'd given themselves a different name.

@Hardbackwriter very well said.

I can hardly recognise what’s happened to some people anymore - we seem to have lost all sense of reasoning and our ability to understand, assess risks when it comes to covid. The are so many things outside of our control that could kill us and we will all die of something at some point. Covid-19 just happens to be the new kid on the block, and for most, the disease is not even fatal!

I appreciate why we had the first lockdown- to buy time for the NHS and prepare as a country. We’ve done that. It was never about eradicating the diseases and stopping everyone from catching it! However the price we paid is a heavy one and the impacts will continue to be felt for generations. I personally cannot and will not support another national lockdown, it is unnecessary. We need to quickly learn to live with Covid whilst accepting the risks it poses without irreparable damaging the economy.

If people want to shut themselves away to avoid it at all costs then that should be personal choice, accepting the consequences that comes with it. And I say this as someone with a comprised immune system and in the vulnerable category. My view is I was just as vulnerable last winter during flu season and when my kids had chickenpox and scarlet fever and god knows whatever else I’m exposed to each and every day.

I prefer living to existing.

@MaxNormal

If they want another lockdown they'll need to cough up for it again.

‘They’ are not coughing up for anything. You and I are through tax. We are going to pay for this for a very very long time. We cannot afford another full lockdown.

@Hamsteratemylunch I’ll take that as a yes you do enjoy lockdown.

The thing is that a scientist doesn't have to consider other elements and factors of a full lockdown.

No one is impartially considering all elements and scientists are keenly aware of the health implications of lockdowns. Furthermore, if you were really familiar with an unchecked pandemic (and avoiding that is like trying to exercise caution on a bolting horse), you would know that scientists don't really have a 'worse scenario' than that to which it's preferable.

He’s the head of Independent SAGE. Ah I missed that bit. Ok. I take back my comment above...

There can't be another national lockdown, the country would be insolvent and unable to continue to fund public services and infrastructure.

I think it's likely that urban lockdowns will be used - inner city lockdowns focusing on high density living environments. We can see this in the hinted at future M25 lockdown.

www.mylondon.news/news/health/london-coronavirus-londoners-could-stopped-18703530

This will result in rage from the already underprivileged (especially those in urban flats and small garden-less terraces) but that's another story.

@Rosehip10

David King comes across as someone bitter that they are no longer in the position that they were - I suspect whatever the gov and SAGE did/said his "unoffical sage" would say something different.

Yes, Indy SAGE have to justify their existence basically (and they are fund-raising at the moment). Also imagine the arrogance it takes to set up your own personsl version of SAGE? Should experts who disagree with Indy SAGE (such as the mathematician Oliver Johnson, who is forever pulling the piss out of Indy SAGE's stats & charts on Twitter) set up an Indy Indy SAGE? Could we have Provisional SAGE, which may or may not be aligned with Continuity SAGE?

Covid-19 just happens to be the new kid on the block, and for most, the disease is not even fatal!

The new kid on the block filling our ICUs and killing more people than the blitz in a matter of weeks. And you would like us to get that in perspective by saying what exactly. 'Oh hi are you the new cancer, I don't think you'll be a problem for me so work away, I'm off out"?

The bars are full of people not social distancing, I'm self employed and terrified of what's to come.

That they will do just about anything to avoid another full lockdown

This government is morally & policy wise totally vacuous - an ethical black hole.

They don't care how many people die (viz. sending COVID-infected patients into nursing homes). They are pretty much guilty of corporate manslaughter.

It means that we, as citizens, need to do what we can to keep everyone else safe - because our national government sure as hell doesn't care.

So wear your masks, and wash your hands.

imagine the arrogance it takes to set up your own personsl version of SAGE?

You have a lifetime of practical knowledge, we have the biggest death toll in Europe and Sage are clearly unable to speak their mind/not listened to. How arrogant for thinking there is a place for a more independent voice from people with a lifetime of much needed expertise. You're right, they must be playing office politics because you don't like what they're saying.

Agree independent sage like to go against the grain for media time and to justify funding.

An agenda and pretty strong reason to come out with sound bites

"we seem to have lost all sense of reasoning and our ability to understand, assess risks when it comes to covid. The are so many things outside of our control that could kill us and we will all die of something at some point"

If you are in your 40's even the risk of dying in the is double what it would normally be from all other causes and diseases combined.

For colleagues in their 50's it is at least triple

For people in their 60's it is at least five times the normal risk.

"My view is I was just as vulnerable last winter during flu season and when my kids had chickenpox and scarlet fever and god knows whatever else I’m exposed to each and every day."

So why are you lecturing people about assessing and understanding risk when you can't do it yourself?

@Othering I didn't say it was great, only the best it was going to be.

@Jihhery

Covid-19 just happens to be the new kid on the block, and for most, the disease is not even fatal!

The new kid on the block filling our ICUs and killing more people than the blitz in a matter of weeks. And you would like us to get that in perspective by saying what exactly. 'Oh hi are you the new cancer, I don't think you'll be a problem for me so work away, I'm off out"?

Where did I say that exactly?

Any disease new to the human population would probably do the same without some measures being put in place. I’m satisfied that the measures we’ve put in place is sufficient and thus we don’t need another nationwide lockdown. Clearly my sense of risk is different to yours.

@walksen

"we seem to have lost all sense of reasoning and our ability to understand, assess risks when it comes to covid. The are so many things outside of our control that could kill us and we will all die of something at some point"

If you are in your 40's even the risk of dying in the is double what it would normally be from all other causes and diseases combined.

For colleagues in their 50's it is at least triple

For people in their 60's it is at least five times the normal risk.

"My view is I was just as vulnerable last winter during flu season and when my kids had chickenpox and scarlet fever and god knows whatever else I’m exposed to each and every day."

So why are you lecturing people about assessing and understanding risk when you can't do it yourself?

Not lecturing anybody, just that my risk tolerance may be different to yours.

You have no idea how old I am.

@Jihhery

imagine the arrogance it takes to set up your own personsl version of SAGE?

You have a lifetime of practical knowledge, we have the biggest death toll in Europe and Sage are clearly unable to speak their mind/not listened to. How arrogant for thinking there is a place for a more independent voice from people with a lifetime of much needed expertise. You're right, they must be playing office politics because you don't like what they're saying.

Many scientists somehow manage to disagree with the government without this kind of nonsense. SAGE exists solely to advise the government. Indy SAGE....doesn't, so they are by definition Not SAGE.

The problem is a local lockdown will not have the same impact.
I live in an area of a local lockdown we can do anything other than sitting in someone’s house or garden.
So people just meet up elsewhere. Or still go to other people’s houses or gardens as they feel it’s safer than the pub etc
No one is managing this and a lot of people are fed up with it all rightly or wrongly. It’s just so contradictory.
So having local lockdowns could prove to be pointless in getting the r rate down once schools open as normal.

@FlySheMust

It's in our hands. If we are careful it may not be necessary. But there are too many idiots around refusing masks, social distancing, and attending large gatherings etc.

I'm very worried about the safety of teachers but most people don't seem to care about them.

Well as long as the get their free childcare

It’s also the vulnerable children and family members it will affect. Remote schooling should have been set up to avoid the large class gatherings and keep safe those that follow the guidelines. School is not childcare.

I doubt many thought we would need to have localised lockdowns but here we are

I wouldn’t rule it out but i think there shall be a number of localised lockdowns. I’m not sure how that will work in the bigger cities

We just don’t know a year ago we would have thought it unimaginable that a virus would have such an impact on all our lives worldwide

I hope that we don’t for so many reasons testing track and trace will help prevent this and we are still not on top of track and trace yet other countries have been for months and that vast majority of us need to be wearing masks

School is not childcare.

Except it has been for a large group. KW etc

Which is now ending and back to educating everyone, tg.

DK may be head of indy-Sage rather than official Sage but is still a qualified and experienced scientist not some random person off the street!

The point about Zero Covid is not about preventing deaths from Covid at all costs - it's about being able to go back to normal, which is surely what everyone wants. Indy Sage argue that having tighter restrictions now is painful but makes economic sense in the long run because if Covid can be eradicated, we no longer need to worry about social distancing, masks etc, so businesses no longer need to limp along at quarter capacity or having to randomly shut down every few weeks. It's a nice idea, but not sure how it can be achieved if we keep our borders open - you can see in Australia right now what can happen if an infected person comes in, and they have a much stricter quarantine system than we do.

Infection rates have started going up in the UK but very slightly, so it would be difficult for the govt to justify another lockdown on this basis - even if they wanted to, which, juding by all the ads on TV encouraging everyone to go back to 'normal', they don't. Besides which, it is open for debate whether lockdown actually IS the best way to control infection. Maybe we could copy the Swedish model for a change.

Re schools, I hope they will open as normal though it's hard to say what will happen. So far relatively few countries have opened all schools fully post-covid so there isn't a lot of data to go on, but what there is seems encouraging - I don;t think anywhere in Europe has seen big outbreaks centred on schools.

You don't know how old I am either ; but you talked only about the risk to you. The point I was making is that whilst covid is a negligible risk for some it is clearly significant for others and certainly much higher than chickenpox for millions of people in this country. A pandemic and the lockdown is about the risk to everyone not just you. I personally find it pretty callous to just say everyone dies of something and imply that "we" cannot assess risk. Millions of people have justifiable concerns about catching covid especially if they have underlying health conditions. You are entitled to have a fuck it attitude but others have a different one but your actions may affect them also.

There have already been tens of thousands of unnecessary deaths due to late lockdown and incompetence from the government about care homes.

If it takes another lockdown to avoid tens of thousands more then that's what we have to do.

It is not too big a price to pay.