To think we will be on lockdown in the winter?

[BalletPinkRoses]

Every year in the media you hear about how the NHS is struggling/almost at capacity because of increased cases of flu and pneumonia - the so-called NHS "winter crisis".

Surely with even a small amount of COVID-19 cases on top of the usual winter illnesses it will cause the NHS to reach capacity and trigger a lockdown in order to protect the NHS?

(Sorry that this is so negative, I don't meant to be all doom and gloom)

Yes unfortunately I think we will be in and out of lockdown for about a year.

I suspect if there's a second wave in summer, we'd have similar issues.
The past couple of years have seen increases in the number of heat related hospital admissions and deaths. Heat exhaustion, heat stroke, heart attacks and strokes triggered by heat, and so on.

Shame we didn't just do what other countries did. Early lockdown, borders shut (or proper quarantine). Stricter but shorter lockdown.

I don't think it's going to be much of an issue by then.

I used to think so, but even if there's a big second wave I don't think the country can afford it. Maybe a "light" lockdown where social activities/garherings outwith work are banned.

There's still a chance we could avoid it.
Do now what we should've months ago.
Proper quarantine at our borders, several weeks short but strict lockdown, mandatory masks for the public, early treatment, enough PPE for frontline workers, test, track and trace running properly. It's not too late to avoid this dragging on and on.

@User64344 I worry about how people's mental health will suffer in a lockdown during the winter. It will be miserable. I feel like the reason things are opening up so quickly now is to let people have as close to a normal summer as possible, stimulate the economy a bit and build up some more herd immunity ready for us to all bunker down again in the winter.

I wish politicians would be more open and honest about what this autumn/winter season is likely to look like for us all, they must have done modeling on it.

I really don't think so. We can't afford to repeat this economically or socially and I don't think there would be any concensus around introducing or enforcing it this time. Some things might be restricted somewhat again, but thats it

No, there won’t be

@ToffeeYoghurt I guess I am being a bit of a pessimist but I think even if this country handled this perfectly and got our cases down to 0, the risk of a second peak would not ever go away unless we shut our borders indefinitely. The virus is all over the World now.

However there is some light as viruses tend to mutate to become weaker over time because causing death in their host or serious illness that requires the host to stay home is evolutionarily disadvantageous as they cannot spread to another host.

I suspect they are trying to engineer a summer second wave to be back to approximately the position we are in now by late September ready for the the seasonal flu pressures. I dont think this will be over for quite some time yet.

No, the country can't afford it and many wouldn't do it .
The Hypocrisy of the Govt over the last few days has pushed most people's tolerance to the limit.
I just don't think people without into it for round 2.

I dont think we are going to have another lockdown, more awareness of washing hands, keeping clean (god knows what people did before!).

We really cannot afford more furloughing (and some people are fighting against going back to work).

Sadly people who are truly shielding will have to make risk assessments. Going to large family gatherings are just not going to be possible easily. Hugs and kisses, staying overnight. This is why the family gatherings is going to be one of the last things to be introduced. I know its not fair...

Nowhere needs to shut their borders indefinitely. Although many will quite rightly renain shut to places like the UK and Brazil for longer than they will for other countries.

We only need to follow the lead of the many countries worldwide who have either more or less eliminated it or greatly reduced cases.

Some countries completely closed their borders, others implemented proper quarantine (i.e. no travelling from the airport on busy public transport).

We too could be like this. Our lack of action is what will prolong this. Again, it's not too late to change things. We can't go back but instead of taking a defeatist attitude we could (if we wanted to) act now to mitigate the damage.

Don’t think so - the furlough scheme will have finished and everyone will have to be back at work/school.

The legislation is drafting to anticipate further lockdowns
But I agree they are "opening up" now to try and bring the second wave forward a bit. ..but I am preparing in my head that my children won't be getting any kind of education from the state system before 2021

I'm pro lock down, shut borders etc but actually now realising that we cant run away from this. I really admire NZ and what they have done, but how long can they shut their borders for?

I think we are going to be in and out of lockdown, and I think we should have done it sooner. But I dont see how this is going anywhere.

I'm hopeful that the push to vaccinate people for flu will be huge and that, along with the social distancing measures in place to stem covid, will see a huge reduction in flu. Fingers crossed.

I honestly don’t know. Personally I think it’s so hard to predict what will happen that nobody can know for sure, I guess it depends what happens over the coming weeks/months.

@Sparklesocks I am going with "hope for the best, plan for the worst" . It's all we can do I guess!

Yes, quite possibly. It's all very difficult to say because there's no telling what will happen over the next few months. I work in infectious diseases and my colleagues are anticipating another peak in the middle part of the summer, so I think there is a small period of respite in the coming weeks, and what happens after that all depends on how stupid people are about doing what they've been asked to do (unfortunately, a lot of people seem to struggle with making smart decisions though...)

@NeverTwerkNaked yes I suppose that’s the best mindset. I think the main thing this has taught me is how unpredictable everything is so I’m hesitant to predict what’s around the corner. If someone had told me back in February what was to come I’d have laughed at them!

They won’t be able to enforce another lockdown after they defended Dominic Cummings by saying he was being a good parent and using his instincts. People will much prefer ‘Be a good parent and use your instincts’ to ‘Stay home’.

No I don’t think so. They won’t keep closing businesses and the economic pain and people won’t comply with it after the D.C. debacle. I am hoping they won’t be stupid enough to try and tell people they can’t see family over Christmas, I certainly won’t be complying with that.

Nope. Very unlikely there'll be a second wave anything like the first.

Lockdown is one thing but paying furlough and grants again to support it? I hope we don’t have to.