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Original poster

To think we will be on lockdown in the winter?

135 replies

BalletPinkRoses · 27/05/2020 12:09

Every year in the media you hear about how the NHS is struggling/almost at capacity because of increased cases of flu and pneumonia - the so-called NHS "winter crisis".

Surely with even a small amount of COVID-19 cases on top of the usual winter illnesses it will cause the NHS to reach capacity and trigger a lockdown in order to protect the NHS?

(Sorry that this is so negative, I don't meant to be all doom and gloom)

OP posts:
Jaxhog · 27/05/2020 15:54

I think it could be lockdown 'light'. So everyone keeps working, apart from the most vulnerable, but that social distancing will be enforced.

I think there's every chance of a second wave. I hope I'm wrong though.

Ormally · 27/05/2020 15:55

A team has made an 8-year study of coronaviruses (not this one, although the type as a whole).
They have examined the relationship with relative humidity in the air and transmission. The other coronaviruses see a steep drop off in transmission around now, and then transmission climbs again with the first week of January apparently being the highest tracked point for conditions that successfully transmit - probably also helped by a mini Christmas/New year lockdown and socialisation.
I'd be willing to bet that this one behaves similarly - so I am trying to strategise regarding the winter.

This is a link to a report on the research, though not the original abstract I read: www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/how-humidity-may-affect-covid-19-outcome

Poppypopsx · 27/05/2020 16:16

Hmm I do agree and think it's going to be a scary long winter. But my thinking is can they keep restarting businesses and then furloughing and stopping everything again?

I know I'll be abit worried everytime one of us gets fevery or ends up with a virus this winter. It's just going to horrible. Let's hope it suddenly disappears. Miracles can happen sometimes.

MilkTrayLimeBarrel · 27/05/2020 16:17

I definitely think there will be a very strong campaign to get everyone who needs it to have a flu and/or pneumonia jab. I always put it off but will be getting one this year. If the improved hygiene standards continue, then fewer people should get normal flu anyway but that remains to be seen.

I agree lockdown in the depths of winter would be miserable - at least we can get outside at the moment. The other thing is I think people will be less happy to queue for shops in the winter so delivery slots will become even more valuable.

luckylavender · 27/05/2020 16:26

Nobody has any idea so it's pretty useless speculating. The Spanish Flu had a much deadlier second wave,

Noextremes2017 · 27/05/2020 16:26

@Babyroobs

Seems very unlikely.

I had a thread on here yesterday asking the same thing and reading between the lines from posts by people working in the NHS - not a chance of returning to 'normal'.

As well as a three month backlog for elective non-urgent surgery the new procedures that the NHS will have to implement to try to prevent infecting patients or being infected by patients means that the number of procedures per day will be less than the past. So waiting lists for this kind of stuff will be longer.

thenamesarealltaken · 27/05/2020 16:28

Its illogical to keep going into the same half hearted type of lockdown we just had. I understand there were many unknowns and too many experts throwing advice in all directions. It was difficult for anyone. But now we know a lot more.

Noextremes2017 · 27/05/2020 16:28

Like @luckylavender says - useless speculating.

But even if there is no second peak - life will be far from 'normal'.

Khione · 27/05/2020 16:57

[quote BalletPinkRoses]@Khione Do you have any links from WHO or Oxford regarding there not being a second peak? I just had a Google and can see that in the Telegraph today Dr Hans Kluge (director for the WHO European region) said “I’m very concerned about a double wave – in the fall, we could have a second wave of Covid and another one of seasonal flu or measles" (source: www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/05/27/second-wave-coronavirus-uk-winter-peak-covid/)[/quote]
www.euroweeklynews.com/2020/05/26/world-health-organisation-doctor-says-second-major-wave-of-coronavirus-being-increasingly-ruled-out/

AlltheRs · 27/05/2020 17:09

Hopsalong Or (bad scenario) young, economically active people won't be able (even if willing) to make more sacrifices on behalf of old, vulnerable people.

The 'sacrifices' young, economically active people made alongside everyone else, were to protect the NHS from being overwhelmed and thus protect this government.
That's the same sacrifice and for the same reasons they and all the middle aged and older economically active people will be deciding if they're prepared to make in the future, and once again it wont be to protect 'old,vulnerable people'.

Large swathes of this country live paycheck to paycheck regardless of age.

The government gave me and mine no help or way to not to lose our home when my work collapsed overnight under their orders, so I had to get out there and hustle for more work regardless of what it would or could do to me or anyone else. I had no choice but to use my parental instincts to hold my family together.
Lots of us of all ages had to.

PissOffStayAtHomeDogMum · 27/05/2020 17:40

@PhilCornwall1

Judging from the letter I received today from my Consultant, I'd say it isn't. He is doing no face to face consultations because of social distancing. Considering he has to actually look at me to judge my condition, I am thinking it's going to be pretty pointless

Same here. By the time I am seen again, a year will have elapsed since I was first seen. They will be treating me for alcoholism and painkiller addiction too, at this rate, as that's the only thing that helps to take the edge off the pain.

Ghostlyglow · 27/05/2020 17:45

I think it will be pretty much impossible to enforce a second lockdown and I think that will leave us all in a really terrible situation. Winter is going to be awful.

MadameMarie · 27/05/2020 17:56

Maybe they're just letting everyone go to the beach and party etc now hoping a second wave will be over by then.

Another lockdown will be a last, last resort. We're due to leave the EU without a deal on 31st December. The winter is going to be bedlam if we're forced into lockdown as well.

MadameMarie · 27/05/2020 18:21

Posters are seriously delusional if they think shutting the borders is the answer

Shutting the beaches would be a start.

Winnipegdreamer · 27/05/2020 18:34

I’m hoping if social distancing and hygiene and personal hygiene is continued that there will be less general illness anyway.

GalesThisMorning · 27/05/2020 18:42

@Stannisbaratheonsboxofmatches

Ah, Dementors R Us
Why? It's a reasonable question asked calmly. What is demented about it? Confused

I think we will have periods of localised lockdown moving forward. Everyone who says no one will adhere to it... well say its November, schools shops entertainment pubs etc are all closed and the fine for breaking lockdown is £500. You wouldn't abide? Really?

GalesThisMorning · 27/05/2020 18:55

Also @ToffeeYoghurt I agree with you on all points. This was not and did not ever have to be as bad as our government has let it become.

HesterShaw1 · 27/05/2020 19:09

The risk of catching it in the open air is proven to be really really small. Shutting the beaches would be an awful thing to do.

allyjay · 27/05/2020 19:09

No there won't be. The WHO cautiously optimistic about their not being a second wave. I'm surprised people haven't seen this in the news. I'm in another country and I have. Also other experts talking about it petering out and having trouble testing the vaccine due to low community cases of the virus

allyjay · 27/05/2020 19:10

There

Standupthisisnotateaparty · 27/05/2020 19:12

I think this is a given.

Nanalisa60 · 27/05/2020 19:18

No we won’t be in lockdown this winter!! this is a one off, can’t afford to do it again!!

If the Virus comes back hard this winter, then keep you granny’s and grandads inside!! If you are diabetic stay in, if you have any other underline Healthy problems stay in and shield!!

The rest of us will just have to get on with it!!

TossACoinToYourWitcher · 27/05/2020 19:23

If there is a second wave it will be smaller. 17% of Londoners have had the virus and up to 10% of the population elsewhere, so potentially around 7 million people or more:

www.gov.uk/government/publications/national-covid-19-surveillance-reports/sero-surveillance-of-covid-19

There are some studies that suggest we only need 20% infected to reach herd immunity.

www.spectator.co.uk/article/herd-immunity-may-only-need-a-10-per-cent-infection-rate

Even if we have not yet reached herd immunity, the amount of people already infected means that the rate of infection will slow down as the virus encounters more people who are already immune.

Fluffybutter · 27/05/2020 19:28

@Nanalisa60

No we won’t be in lockdown this winter!! this is a one off, can’t afford to do it again!!

If the Virus comes back hard this winter, then keep you granny’s and grandads inside!! If you are diabetic stay in, if you have any other underline Healthy problems stay in and shield!!

The rest of us will just have to get on with it!!

Good luck .. I got ripped apart for saying something similar earlier even though I wasn’t as blunt