To think we will be on lockdown in the winter?

[BalletPinkRoses]

Every year in the media you hear about how the NHS is struggling/almost at capacity because of increased cases of flu and pneumonia - the so-called NHS "winter crisis".

Surely with even a small amount of COVID-19 cases on top of the usual winter illnesses it will cause the NHS to reach capacity and trigger a lockdown in order to protect the NHS?

(Sorry that this is so negative, I don't meant to be all doom and gloom)

@AlternativePerspective

I actually think that COVID will burn out. If it doesn’t then we face that as and when. But there’s just as much chance it will burn out as not.

And it’s far better to think that than to anticipate the worst.

I agree entirely but that is not going to be a popular opinion on a doom mongering thread

@ hopsalong thank you. :-) I am very fortunate. At the moment I am in a fairly decent place health wise. Looking in from the outside people might not think that, but I’m independent, I’m able to do things which i couldn’t before going into hospital, I’m back looking for work.

I was told in October that I likely have a year at most before my heart starts to deteriorate and transplant becomes necessary, but I’ll face that when I have to. And the truth is that we’re all going there one day, it’s just that for some of us we’re given a bit of insight into how that might happen. But even then there are no guarantees, I could just as easily be hit by a bus.

We as human beings need to be careful not to spend so much time thinking about dying that we forget to live.

Ah, Dementors R Us

There will no further lockdowns. Suicides will be through the roof though. We are looking forward to the greatest ever depression. So much to look forward to!

There will be strict rules for cold and flu symptoms. So any hint of illness, even if it may be seasonal, will probably require self isolation etc. So it's going to be difficult for sure! My kids always catch the winter bugs so they might spend more time out of school than in!

We are one of the countries most affected in the world by COVID-19. It is here and it will continue to spread.

Posters are seriously delusional if they think shutting the borders is the answer.

I don't think it is very likely there will be a second lockdown. Maybe some localized lockdowns if small pockets of infection flare up. But then again, I don't think a second wave is inevitable. And if one should happen, I will worry about that at the time.

One thing that we all do know about the subject is, none of us actually knows.

They are saying today localised lockdowns -could be quite chaotic but better than a blanket order.

The protect the NHS policy could only be used with the word 'pandemic'.

If the pandemic is over then the rising number of winter cases for flu / pneumonia + some Covid cases will just result in other things being cancelled (like elective non-urgent surgeries).

The economy will be totally in the shit once the effect of the lockdown becomes clearer and the furlough scheme is phased out.

There is a limit to the amount even this Government can borrow before the country is seen as a bad credit risk and interest rates go up significantly.

Can I just say I think it is really horrible for people call people "doom-mongers" and imply that they/we are "gleeful" and finding a global pandemic "fun". I think it is absolutely disgusting. Are we not allowed to have an open discussion about the temporal dynamics of a pandemic and how we predict it may play out? I started this thread purely from a scientific, objective perspective, not to be a "doom-monger" and I even mentioned in the OP I was not intending to be negative. I am a biologist, I apologise that I have an interest in discussing the pandemic we are all living through.

@HelloMissus @ferretface That is a good point regarding flu cases dropping because of increased social distancing and better hand hygiene - I hadn't thought of that!

@Michelleoftheresistance I believe they are already doing that to some degree. They have "clean" areas and "dirty" (COVID-19) areas. I know locally we have "clean" GP practices and a "dirty" practice that was used for testing COVID-19. However I agree it would be good to have a specific, dedicated hospital for COVID-19 cases in each area.

@AlternativePerspective I have read that the WHO thinks it may burn out naturally too which would be great news. I hope the new contact tracing will help that too.

I'm wondering when any of the 'routine NHS services are going to get back to anything like normal and how the massive backlog is going to be cleared as well as dealing with ongoing covoid cases and potentially another spike?

There will be strict rules for cold and flu symptoms. So any hint of illness, even if it may be seasonal, will probably require self isolation etc.

I think so too. Self isolation is here to stay, probably until there is a vaccine, indefinitely if not. Hopefully it will come hand in hand with better and faster testing.

I doubt well be seeing a second wave like the first. There is better community immunity either from people that have had it and recovered or those who have developed a resistance to it.

Our knowledge and infrastructure against the virus have improved. We know what we are looking for and have the testing to identify it. I do wonder if it was more widespread through the winter with milder cases going undetected amongst the usual array of winter illnesses. We should not need a widespread lockdown.

People who are shielding need to do their own risk assessment as it's not a universal risk, and their particular health threats need to be balanced against quality of life.

At this point, community cases and transmission are low and declining. Fortunately the warm sunny weather is a great defence against the virus and it has given us more time before the challenges of autumn will come, but we can't exist in suspended animation forever.

It's winter here in Australia. Interesting side effect of hand hygiene and social distancing is a huge drop in flu cases. In fact in some states if you have cold symptoms you're more likely to have Covid than flu!

Keep up the basics and the flu+covid is probably the same case load as a normal flu season. Plus things like norovirus, and even an expected measles spread due to a known cluster are hugely down. Just shows what a disgusting bunch of snot sharers we normally are!

The country can not afford any more lockdown and furlough payments. People have been about and about here, hundreds of them, no social distancing and not just families, groups of people

I guess I am being a bit of a pessimist but I think even if this country handled this perfectly and got our cases down to 0, the risk of a second peak would not ever go away unless we shut our borders indefinitely. The virus is all over the World now.

Yes that's what a pandemic is. I am the opposite to you. Having looked at the maths and the stats, I agree with the experts who are saying it seems to be on the wane. Obviously the timing of waning will vary across the world depending on when it started in various places.

Diseases in the past have come and gone.

I don’t think we’ll see a recurrence of COVID. However I am concerned about seasonal flu, I’m no expert but if social distancing in Southern Hemisphere continue they’ll see reduced flu cases so how does the predictions for seasonal flu strains occur? I’m worried we go into this winter without an effective flu vaccine. Prior to the flu immunisation extra deaths due to respiratory illness were 48000 in England and Wales, that on top of COVID excess deaths would be absolutely harrowing.

Just shows what a disgusting bunch of snot sharers we normally are!

Apologies, haven't read the thread. It will be interesting if changes in behaviour (distancing, hand washing) reduce the infection rate of 'flu hence reduce winter pressures.

A cynic might wonder if government plants to have all children have some contact time in school in England prior to Summer might (in)advertently engineer a Summer second wave and propagate infectior prior to a September return that would otherwise lead to COVID + 'flu.

There is a lot of speculation that a lot of people had it here in Dec/Jan who didn’t realise it then because it wasn’t known. I know a few people who had fairly severe flu-like illnesses, including with breathing difficulties who now have been told it could have been COVID.

BBC’s Fergus Walsh had pneumonia in January, he’s since been tested and he has COVID antibodies.

The virus is said to have originated in China, but we don’t actually know that for certain do we? All we know is that the first case was reported there. And even if it did originate there, it could have done so months, possibly even years before.

Just shows what a disgusting bunch of snot sharers we normally are!

Well considering people are having to be told to wash their hands after using the toilet and after taking the bin out, and they are surprised by this, it's not really surprising that so many caught covid.

I'm wondering when any of the 'routine NHS services are going to get back to anything like normal

Judging from the letter I received today from my Consultant, I'd say it isn't. He is doing no face to face consultations because of social distancing. Considering he has to actually look at me to judge my condition, I am thinking it's going to be pretty pointless.

This is for the foreseeable future apparently.

I'm still waiting to be released from this "lockdown", so haven't thought that far ahead yet.

@AlternativePerspective

There is a lot of speculation that a lot of people had it here in Dec/Jan who didn’t realise it then because it wasn’t known. I know a few people who had fairly severe flu-like illnesses, including with breathing difficulties who now have been told it could have been COVID.

BBC’s Fergus Walsh had pneumonia in January, he’s since been tested and he has COVID antibodies.

The virus is said to have originated in China, but we don’t actually know that for certain do we? All we know is that the first case was reported there. And even if it did originate there, it could have done so months, possibly even years before.

I am one of them . I had very similar symptoms in dec-jan and remember saying it felt like flu but not quite . I had been in France and around a week later I had whatever it was .