To think we will be on lockdown in the winter?

[BalletPinkRoses]

Every year in the media you hear about how the NHS is struggling/almost at capacity because of increased cases of flu and pneumonia - the so-called NHS "winter crisis".

Surely with even a small amount of COVID-19 cases on top of the usual winter illnesses it will cause the NHS to reach capacity and trigger a lockdown in order to protect the NHS?

(Sorry that this is so negative, I don't meant to be all doom and gloom)

I doubt it. and even if they did, can't imagine most would so willingly do it again, so if they did would have to be much stricter

We will get a second wave. It is not a whether but more of a when

I am concerned that I am not hearing about any planning on how to get this worse than 3rd world standard NHS back to a decent level so we dont have a winter crisis every single winter, as you said. Several hospitals are quiet (SE) as they slowed down (stopped) elective surgeries and we dont have as many COVID patients, thanks to the public (bar high and mighty people) for their lockdown sacrifice.
This could be the perfect time to get measures in place. I dont dare to imagine this pandemic in the winter months....

Perhaps they could utilise the empty cash vacuum that is the Nightingale hospitals for all future winter flu crisis’

They can try, but really is anyone going to do it for a second time? I won't be.

Yes, I think so. Judging by the way lockdown is consistently being ignored by a large chunk of the population it’s inevitable. I expect we’ll be back in lockdown in September.

I think it would be mostly the same people who might die of flu/CV by then, so there will probably not be much excess mortality this winter (at least not directly, but there might be a higher death rate of people who have missed out on other treatment etc).

Possibly even less than usual, as some of the ones who would have died then died this spring instead.

I think people will be encouraged to wfh where possible but yes, we will effectively be in another lockdown in terms of social contact at the very least in the winter.

The predictions are far more that there will NOT be a second wave (including from WHO who are generally very pessimistic). The Oxford team that are working on the vaccine now don't thing there will be enough of the virus around to know whether the vaccine is effective.

In addition to this there will be far fewer cases of and deaths from flu in the coming winter. For one I think we will all be more vigilant on the hygiene and hand washing front. Secondly, there will, I think be a higher uptake of the normal flu vaccine and thirdly many of the people who would have been made seriously ill and maybe died in the next flu season have died already with the current virus.

Economy and mental health are going to be far bigger issues come the autumn

It is interesting that so many of you mention that you/others won't do a second lockdown and that DC flouting lockdown will stop people adhering to a second lockdown. I don't really understand the thought process behind that even though I can see it play out around me with people being more lax over the lockdown rules. I obey the rules of lockdown because it protects my health and the health of my family. DC flouting lockdown has no impact on my adherence as my primary concern is not getting or transmitting COVID-19. It is almost like "well X doesn't wear a seatbelt in their car so I'm not going to either! Ha that will show them!" Please note I am not writing this about people who have suffered with their mental health during this lockdown. I understand that people are fatigued and this lockdown is incredibly difficult and stressful and I completely understand why that group of people would struggle to adhere to a second lockdown and I sympathise with them greatly. I am talking more about those who use DC as a reason not to lockdown again.

@Chocolatefixeseverything I agree, I think they are trying to get more immunity in the population by opening things up now to ease the pressure in the winter.

@FourTeaFallOut Yes that is a good point! I wonder if they will make the flu vaccine free for everyone? I will definitely be getting the flu vaccine this year.

@MorrisZapp May I ask why you think this? I think a second peak is pretty much inevitable and if history is anything to go by it will be a lot worse than the first peak.

@letmethinkaboutitfornow I completely agree that it is a case of not "if" but "when" for a second peak. I feel like so many people are in denial.

@Khione Do you have any links from WHO or Oxford regarding there not being a second peak? I just had a Google and can see that in the Telegraph today Dr Hans Kluge (director for the WHO European region) said “I’m very concerned about a double wave – in the fall, we could have a second wave of Covid and another one of seasonal flu or measles" (source: www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/05/27/second-wave-coronavirus-uk-winter-peak-covid/)

Numbers are so low in London, it’s hard to know what will happen in the next few months.

I completely agree that it is a case of not "if" but "when" for a second peak. I feel like so many people are in denial.

Maybe not in denial, but possibly not as concerned the next time around as they may have been originally.

To be honest, I think if anything does happen, people will have bigger things to worry about, such as jobs. I can see an awful lot of redundancies coming once the furlough payments stop.

Nope , I think if we do it will just be for those shielding .
The country can’t afford to go through this again in such a short space of time

yes but it will be on a more local level so the rest of the country can be out making money.

It would also be an idea to encourage everybody to have the flu jab. Less people off work, less people seeing gps. I don't normally get it I normally turn ot down, but after the flu I had at the begining of March theres no way me or anyone in my house isn't getting it this year

I think if we do it will just be for those shielding

So, just for the 2.5 million people who are shielding or all those who live with them too?

No. It won’t happen. No matter how much the doom-mongers want it to!

No. Sorry to spoil your fun.

I think so and I think that social distancing will carry on for a long long time . Things certainly won't be returning to how they were despite people thinking that it will

@BreadandMarmalade

Why? What do you know that others don't?

I hope not. If we go into a second lockdown over winter, any plans for next year are effectively ruined again.

They can't really expect us to obey a lockdown though again after their own ministers don't. No one will obey it and its not like it was strictly obeyed by everyone to begin with.

Social distancing is hit and miss anyway.
There might be queues outside shops but I've lost count of the number of times someone has stepped in my zone within marked out spaces in Sainsbury's.

I think there will be unofficial lockdowns when and where there are spikes - like snow days/Noro outbreaks.
And there will be much more vigilance generally, to dampen spikes.

There may also be short official closures to react to localised spikes.

But I don’t think the government have the cash to furlough again. And many businesses will go bust if forced to close again anyway.

Winter pressures may be lower than usual, if social distancing is still in effect. Flu transmits the same way that covid does. On the other hand if we have the conditions which lead to a lot of flu cases we probably have a lot of covid too.

I suspect that increased hygiene and vigilance will massively reduce flu this year.
There are so many things that I used to do without thinking that I won’t do going forward.

Nope , I think if we do it will just be for those shielding . “shielding” has become the new institutionalisation. Where “ordinary” people expect certain sections of society to stay locked up for... how long do you propose that?

For those saying that it’s about people’s jobs, do you think the shielded don’t have jobs then? Or bills to pay? Or responsibilities? Do you think that the shielded are all so unwell that keeping them locked up doesn’t affect them?

It’s interesting, because all those talking about the “shielded” needing to stay in lockdown for the foreseeable seem to be those who aren’t shielding.

If this virus stays around then everyone including the shielded is going to have to find a way to live with it. The immunosuppressed are already at risk from other, just as serious illnesses, but we don’t expect them to stay locked up do we? Or do we?

The idea of the shielded and non shielded has created a real them and us attitude.

There is now a lot of speculation that the virus is in fact expected to burn out rather than peak again. And that speculation is no more invalid than the speculation which says we’re going to have a second wave.

But our numbers are dropping, countries who have come out of lockdown haven’t seen steep rises in the virus. The evidence points towards the virus potentially burning out.

But it suits the doom mongers to be waiting gleefully for something else to happen.

Whatever happens, we won’t be going back into lockdown. The DC argument is a red herring, if people care about their own safety they would stick to the rules, it’s just an excuse for people to do what they want. But long periods of lockdown just aren’t sustainable.