To be hopeful that the pandemic is easing?

[understandmenow]

Today stats

2405 confirmed cases (with more testing)

118 deaths

Two weeks ago (so a Sunday when figures are lower)

3534 cases

268 deaths

Things are improving? Even two weeks after an expected peak (due to VE Day).

We are getting there?

Two weeks from VE day isn't enough though is it? Not trying to be negative but surely we'd need to wait at least 3 weeks to see if that did have an affect?

@amusedbush I so agree

I do get it's not 100% normal, but it's better than what we have now.

We are getting through this.

@Larkspurandhollyhocks I'm confident, let's check back in 5 days time? It's been 16 days to be precise.

I feel the same. I'm hearing a lot of comparisons to SARS and that it might just vanish like that did. I've also seen that apparently we shouldn't compare coronavirus with Spanish flu/second wave because it's a different type of virus. I don't know anything about viruses so don't know if that's right but that's what I've been reading.

And of course @Larkspurandhollyhocks some would've shown symptoms before the 14 day "deadline".

Fingers crossed. It's hard to imagine life getting back to normal but let's hope so...

It's already eased where I am (but our government did a much better job than the UK). About 2,500 cases and 150 deaths in total. Stores and bars have reopened. The UK is lagging behind but showing signs of improvement.

Of course there could still be a second wave but, in the short term, things seem to have taken a turn for the better.

About 2,500 cases and 150 deaths in total.
I should say that's from a population of 5m.

I really hope so ,just hoping there won't be a second peak.

These are delayed numbers as well, the actual daily figures (date of recorded vs reported death) are slightly different.

www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Projected figures are already under 100. 5 days ago the actual number was 131

Karol Sikora, Chris Witty, Sunitra Gupta and Adrian Hill are saying the virus is on its way out. Adrian Hill's with the people developing the vaccine in Oxford and says there may not be enough virus in the community to test the vaccine.

There was an interesting article on the BBC website today, about relative risk.

Love this thread. A little bit of positivity is just I need , been really struggling with my anxiety this past week, many thanks all. I too have been following Karol sikora on twitter and he's become my new hero.

@ScarlettDarling I hear you!

I've been feeling more optimistic this week. I've been looking at the figures this week and they are definitely declining.

The DC have "broken up" for half term - no homeschooling for a week.
My DC are in the first phase to return to school and whilst we haven't fully decided whether they are going back (the gov need to sort out competent test, track and trace first) I do feel as though the wheels are turning back to normality.

I'm still unsure about what will happen in the autumn but I'm feeling more hopeful this virus will burn itself out before we get there.

Two weeks from VE day isn't enough though is it? Not trying to be negative but surely we'd need to wait at least 3 weeks to see if that did have an affect?

Yes in terms of deaths but no in terms of new cases. If the virus causes problems 5-14 days after you pick it up then we would definitely be starting to see an uptick in new cases already. But it will be interesting to see what happens over the next week.

I think so

I live in an area where I think we’re still waiting for it to hit.

I think so too, I also don’t think there’ll be a second wave .

Yes I'm confident things are improving and that we are over the worst .
Let's keep the positivity up

Here in Wales it's easing off. We had 7 deaths today and only 140 new infections.

But our ICU bed usage is rising, so we will see a increase in deaths in the next couple of weeks sadly.

I feel the same. I'm hearing a lot of comparisons to SARS and that it might just vanish like that did

Just wanted to point out that SARS didn't 'just vanish' or 'burn out'. It was controlled by a number of measures, among them a highly efficient 'track and trace' system.

That said, I share the very cautious optimism that Covid might burn out, or mutate to a less virulent strain. Several countries relaxed their lockdowns weeks ago and there's still no sign of the dreaded next wave - isolated hot-spots or small overall rises do not a 'wave' make. Or it could be just that warmer weather in the northern hemisphere, combined with social distancing, have the virus under control...for now. That doesn't rule out a resurgence later in the year, but fingers crossed that won't happen.

Karol sikora has an interesting history in advising governments if people care to look. Then you may not treat him like the self-promoting Demi-god people are now making out.

IcedPurple thanks, I'm not very knowledgeable on these things and I was only a young teen when SARS was around so naturally it wasn't an important event in my life then

I'd like to think that if we do see a resurgence later in the year we will be better prepared for it.

I'm keen to follow how things are developing in mainland Europe, seems like it's going ok after reopening.

@CoachBombay that's great stats!