Schools could reopen in weeks

[Orangeblossom78]

In todays "Times"

"Schools could reopen in a few weeks as coronavirus restrictions begin to be lifted, Public Health England suggested this morning.

Paul Cosford, the agency’s emeritus medical director, said that easing the lockdown for the young first was being considered as ministers look to set out an exit plan for the coming weeks.

Finding a way out of lockdown is the government’s “number one topic and priority”, according to Neil Ferguson of Imperial College London, one of its leading advisers on the epidemic.

Professor Cosford said: “People are doing really well with the social distancing and it is working as far as we can see to flatten this pandemic,” but acknowledged the balance between controlling the epidemic and allowing normal life to resume.

He said that now was not the moment to relent, telling Today on BBC Radio 4: “Once you start getting things under control, that’s the time you absolutely need to continue with all your measures so that you can bring the disease right down and crack it.”

He expects there to be “a lot of discussions over the next week or so” about an exit strategy. Asked if restrictions might be eased in several weeks, he said: “I think several weeks isn’t unreasonable. Let’s hope it’s sooner than that.”

He said that starting by letting the young resume normal life was being considered. “The importance of children’s education, children being in school is paramount. That’s not the only issue but I could conceive of circumstances where some of the restrictions are lifted sooner and some are lifted later,” he said.

“There are some really difficult issues here because if you look at children and the closure of schools, a very important measure to help get this under control, but we do know that children are very low risk of getting serious complications of this disease.”

Professor Ferguson told the same programme that while hospital admissions appeared to be plateauing, “it’s going to be several more weeks before we can definitively conclude anything about the rate of decline and therefore when measures could be lifted”.

He said it was “good news” that more people were obeying social distancing rules than the government expected and said that “measures will be targeted probably by age, by geography” on lifting lockdown.

“There are lots of ideas worth exploring. That’s what’s happening right now. We clearly don’t want these measures to continue longer than is absolutely necessary — the economic costs, social costs, personal costs and health costs are huge.”

Head teachers are lobbying the government to reopen schools before the summer holidays, even for just a few weeks, if scientific advice says that it is safe.

Paul Whiteman and Geoff Barton, the general secretaries of the NAHT and ASCL head teachers’ unions, have told ministers pupils would benefit greatly from schools reopening before the summer, rather than waiting until September.

They believe that even a few weeks of school would help pupils remember what formal learning is like and what is required of them. If schools do not open before the summer children will have been away from the classroom and formal learning for more than five months.

The Department for Education is said to have shown a “genuine interest” in the approach, which would see pupils return for a number of weeks during the summer term to “reacquaint themselves with the educational environment”.

The government has made clear that it is too soon to consider reopening schools after the Easter holidays following speculation that pupils could return as soon as April 20.

“That said, once the scientific advice is that schools can return safely, they should do so, even if it’s for a very limited period before the summer break, as this will allow young people to reacquaint themselves with the educational environment,” the two leaders told Schools Week journal.

However, they warned that any return to normality “has to be a planned one”.

“It can’t be about flicking a switch on a Friday night and then thinking it’s all going to be all right on a Monday morning,” they said.

One of the things people seem to forget is that even if symptoms are rare in children, they happen. Even if deaths in the under-20s is rare, they happen. As far as I recall, the death rate for under-30s (in each age category - under-10s, under-20s etc.) is 0.2%. In a school of 1000 students (very common at secondary level) that is still 2 dead students per school. Given higher death rates among the over-40s, we can also assume 1-2 dead members of staff per school.

And that's with ICU working at or below capacity.

Food for thought.

Further article on this today regarding opening to key workers first...

Schools might reopen at the end of May to admit the children of dentists, plumbers and general shop workers, as ministers expand the list of key workers.

Head teachers expect to start admitting more pupils within six weeks, as ministers ease the lockdown by letting more sectors go back to work.

Younger teachers likely to be less at risk from the virus could be brought back into classrooms under plans being discussed.

Only about 2% of pupils are attending those schools that remained open after March 23 when the lockdown began. They include the children of NHS staff as well as vulnerable children.

Geoff Barton, general secretary of the Association of School and College Leaders, said: “When the decision to cancel exams was made, it was thought that the peak of hospital cases would be in mid-May. It now looks as though the pandemic is at its height. That opens a window for schools to reopen before the summer holidays. That will not be before the May half-term, so we are looking at around June 1.”

Next week the BBC will start broadcasting 14 weeks of daily educational programmes presented by stars such as Strictly Come Dancing’s Oti Mabuse to help with home-schooling.

An Oxford University survey of how thousands of families are managing in the lockdown has found more than 60% of working parents are struggling to do their jobs from home and educate and look after their children at the same time. There are also concerns that the poorest children will fall even further behind academically.

Robert Halfon, Tory chairman of the Commons education select committee, is calling for firms to donate laptops to children, for the government to pay for “catch-up tuition” and for volunteers to mentor youngsters.

The Department for Education said: “Schools will remain closed until further notice, except for children of critical workers and the children who are most vulnerable. We will reopen schools when the scientific advice indicates it is safe to do so.”

Alkaloise the death rate is 0.2% of people who both have coronavirus and were unwell enough to be tested. It doesn’t take into account all those who have it very mildly or with no symptoms at all (which will be a large number of children). It’s not 0.2% of all people in that age group. Now any death of a young person is tragic, but that number is slightly misleading.

Also Alkaloise that relies on every one in the school having it - and 100% of people getting it is not on the cards at all.

Also you have made a divide between staff and pupils which isnt how it works either so in effect the numbers would be lower

I know the Chinese numbers are less reliable, but that was with (presumably) far wider-scale testing than we have had in Britain to date.

The death rate of those "ill enough" is currently at around 20% overall and presumed to be at a realistic 0.2-3.4% for all people overall, worldwide. This doesn't take into account viral load (far higher in schools where social distancing is impossible), general health conditions or all those who have died of compliations from the illness and who have been recorded as dead from other conditions.

More news are getting through of more young key workers and children dying - how many will be enough to convince people that opening schools too early is a catastrophe waiting to happen?

Thing is no one knows if this doesn’t or doesn’t cause serious issues with children. We just haven’t seen it yet. We can’t be certain. After this I would like education completely looked at. For those with Sen and coming from poorer backgrounds we need a re-think.

I’m also interested to know and this is probably a bit stupid but how do we know when we’ve hit peak?

*Also Alkaloise that relies on every one in the school having it - and 100% of people getting it is not on the cards at all.

Also you have made a divide between staff and pupils which isnt how it works either so in effect the numbers would be lower*

Let's work with a typical secondary school environment.
30 bums on seats in every classroom (most are at full capacity). Movement in corridors, which are far too small. Movement 5x per day, 5 different children touching each desk in a day. Not enough cleaners to clean desks in between. A canteen where even with the best will in the world students cannot queue for food and eat without rubbing shoulders. Shared books, shared pens and glue, one or two machines working on finger print technology to make payments. Shared and very limited loos and washing facilities. Teachers having to circulate to help and manage behaviour.

A typical care home with limited movement between residents and staff will have around 50% of all people infeted. In a school, you will very likely get close to 100% without trying too hard.

Not even counting those students who will (as has happened) deliberately spill hand sanitiser, touch others, fight, cough "for a laugh".

And of course I make a divide between staff and students. Under-30s and staff who are older are going to be differently affected in numbers of severe cases, but they will still be enough.

As far as I’m aware, China still only tested symptomatic cases.

I’m also interested to know and this is probably a bit stupid but how do we know when we’ve hit peak?

We won’t know until we’re out the other end of it! With the lag in data and taking into account the fact that we’ll need to see at least a week or two of numbers going down before we can say with any certainty, we’ll probably be a week or two past the peak before we know if we have hit it.

I generally like Geoff Barton but he’s not an epidemiologist and so really should shut up and leave it to them about things like peaks of pandemics and when it is safe to open schools.

Why are they asking people who aren’t scientists for their opinion on this?

The Times have published three articles in 5 days about how ‘experts’ say schools should go back asap!

Have the Times an agenda for getting the schools back perhaps?

I wonder what the Times agenda might be?

Orange could you post the link to the article please?

Thing is no one knows if this does or doesn’t cause serious issues with children
Exactly that, or with those who had mild or no symptoms.
Take for example chicken pox. And that’s hardly the worst virus in the history of humanity.
What if covid19 lies dormant for 20-30 years and something triggers it. In a much worse form or at a stage in life when the individual is susceptible to serious symptoms.
What if there is enough lung damage that is not noticeable enough yet without proper screening, but it gets progressively worse as these children advance in age.
Nobody knows enough. Why should we expose our children to a potential serious risk. As it is, they’ll be the ones paying back all the extra spending government all over the world are currently doing trying to keep things going right now. It’s easy enough to say, kids don’t get it. We are playing Russian roulette with their health already.
Long term health is much more important than missing half a year or a year of education out of a young person’s life.

was it this thread that we discussed Denmark on? Anyway , all is not as well as might seem in the beautiful Scandi utopia. There is apparently a very large Facebook group of parents opposed to it and unease amongst teachers about the fact that the actual practicalities have not been thought through yet.

Apparently , most workers are still being asked to WFH so this sending young children back is designed to make WFH more efficient not necessarily to reopen workplaces.

If I were in Denmark I’d be concerned about being the guinea pigs of the world too.

There is apparently a very large Facebook group of parents opposed to it and unease amongst teachers about the fact that the actual practicalities have not been thought through yet.

That doesn’t surprise me at all-I wouldn’t want my kids being guinea pigs for this.

Branster so do you suggest keeping schools off until there is a vaccine, and everyone has had that vaccine? So probably 1-2 years?
Not trying to be an arse, just genuinely interested as to what the solution could be.

How can school go back 1st June? The vulnerable teachers will.still be off at that point (I think). Can't open without enough staff unless they increase numbers very slowly. But if the increase is that slow some children won't be back until practically the end of term (and don't some schools close in June anyway?)

Long term health is much more important than missing half a year or a year of education out of a young person’s life it isn't just education, it is also the social and mental health impact you need to consider. I am guessing you don't have young children? My dc were delighted to be off school and still are, but after a few weeks of not socialising, not seeing other kids, not seeing other people, not going out to different places, not going to supermarkets and doing normal things - I am seeing the impact on them. And we are really privileged - we have a huge house and huge garden. There are so many children who don't have that. To think that it would be ok to do this for a year "just in case" is just plain bonkers. I am not suggesting "sacrificing" anyone in terms of illness, nor of a total return for all schools and all pupils all in one go, but clear plans including how risk is mitigated to do with mitigating risk, after the peak, which is expected to be in a matter of weeks.

There is a concern that the UK government is that they won't think things through as well as other European governments though. That sort of comes across in some of the articles about the economy and the Times articles about schools.

sorry ignore the double "mitigated risk."

Are people really suggesting that the schools will need to be off until there is a vaccine?

HoffiCoffi13 I’m not suggesting this in particular or anything else because I simply don’t know what would be the best way forward.
But I would like to see more caution where children are concerned. I have seen very little concern for the younger generation so far. because they are our responsibility. And we simply don’t know what we are exposing them to at present. If 1-2 years of no traditional school means we save their life’s for the next 60-80 years, then it should be considered. If there is a risk that a big enough percentage of today’s children become incapacitated or die prematurely in 20 years from now because things are rushed through in 2020-2021, shouldn’t we stop and think? We don’t even know what effect exposure to the virus has to foetuses and newborns. Or if they are even exposed to it from the mother.
It’s simply food for thought and I expect someone somewhere with better understanding and knowledge is analysing what they can from what we know. The situation has to remain fluid until we know more.

Click I do agree but I would rather my dd mixed with a couple families on walks and playing outside for a few weeks before going back into the tiny corridors and rooms of our packed Academy.

To think that it would be ok to do this for a year "just in case" is just plain bonkers
Not much is ‘OK’ at present and it won’t be for the foreseeable future.

Of course it’s not beneficial to children or anyone else to be segregated from their friends, school, coworkers and, most importantly, extended family.
All I am saying is that we simply cannot rush things through on the basis that children are not affected by the virus. Because we simply don’t know if they are or not. Yes everybody needs to get back to standard school and work but we cannot assume it’s safe enough for our children to do so.
I don’t know what the answer is and nobody else on this thread knows either.